June’s jobs report, Marketwatch 666, Commenter RJS
This week’s major agency issued economic releases included the Employment Situation Summary for June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and three May reports that will input into 2nd quarter GDP: the BEA’s report on International Trade for May, the May report on Construction Spending and the Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for May, both from the Census Bureau . . . this week also saw the last regional Fed manufacturing survey for June; the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, which also covers adjacent western Louisiana and southeastern New Mexico, reported its general business activity index fell to +31.1 in June from +34.9 in May, still indicating an ongoing robust expansion of the Texas area economy . . .
Privately issued reports released this week included the ADP Employment Report for June, the light vehicle sales report for June from Wards Automotive, which is the source data for the BEA report and which estimated that vehicles sold at a 15.36 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in June, down from 16.99 million annual rate in May, but up from the 13.05 million annual rate in June of 2020, and the Case-Shiller house price indexes for April from S&P Case-Shiller, who reported that their national home price index was 14.6% higher than in the same month’s report a year ago, up from the 13.3% year over year gain reported for March . . . this week also saw the widely followed purchasing manager’s survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM): the June Manufacturing Report On Business indicated that the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) fell to 60.6% in June, down from 61.2% in May, which means that a smaller plurality of manufacturing industry purchasing managers reported expansion in various facets of their business in June than a month ago . . .
Employers Added 850,000 Jobs in June, Unemployment Rate Rises to 5.9%
The Employment Situation Summary for June indicated an increase in payroll jobs that was both above expectations and the most in 10 months, but that fewer Americans reported they were employed in June than did in May…seasonally adjusted estimates extrapolated from the establishment survey data projected that employers added 850,000 jobs in June, after the payroll job increase for May was revised up from 559,000 to 583,000 jobs, while the April increase was revised down from 278,000 jobs to 269,000, which means that the combined number of jobs added over those two months was 15,000 more than was previously reported….the unadjusted data indicates that there were actually 1,148,000 more payroll jobs in June than in May, as seasonal job increases that are typical for sectors such as construction, trade and transportation, and leisure and hospitality were normalized by the seasonal adjustments…
Seasonally adjusted job increases were spread throughout government and the private goods producing and service sectors, and continue to reflect recoveries in sectors hardest hit by the pandemic…..the leisure and hospitality sector’s gain of 343,000 jobs accounted for a sizable part of the June job gain, and included an increase of 194,300 employees working in bars and restaurants, an increase of 75,100 jobs in accommodation, and 44,800 more working in amusements, gambling, and recreation….the government sector saw an addition of 188,000 jobs in June, as 155,200 seasonally adjusted jobs were added in local school districts and another 74,500 were added in state education, while private educational services also added 38,600 jobs, all of which reflect fewer June teacher layoffs than normal….the broad professional and business services sector added 72,000 jobs in June, as 33,000 more were employed by temporary help services and 8,000 more found work in advertising and related services….the retail sector saw an increase of 67,100 jobs, led by 27,900 more jobs in clothing stores and 25,400 additional jobs with general merchandise retailers, even as building material and garden supply stores cut 12,700 employees…another 56,000 jobs gains were seen by “other services”, with an increase of 29,200 employed by personal and laundry services and 18,200 more by membership associations and organizations…wholesale trade added 21,300 jobs, with wholesale durable goods accounting for 13,500 of those… in addition, employment in health care and social assistance rose by 20,200, as an increase of 24,900 jobs with child day care services was partly offset by the loss of 9,600 jobs with nursing and residential care facilities…meanwhile, other June job increases included the addition of 15,000 jobs in manufacturing, 14,000 in information, 12,000 in resource extraction, and 10,700 in transportation and warehousing, while 7,000 seasonally adjusted jobs were lost in construction, and the financial sector employed a thousand fewer than it did in May…
The establishment survey also showed that the average hourly pay for all employees rose by 10 cents to $30.40 an hour in June, after it had increased by a downwardly revised 13 cents an hour in May; at the same time, the average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees also increased by 10 cents to $25.68 an hour…employers also reported that the average workweek for all private payroll employees decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.7 hours, while hours for production and non-supervisory personnel fell by 0.2 hours to 34.1 hours…in addition, the manufacturing workweek fell by 0.2 hour to 40.2 hours, while factory overtime decreased by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours..
Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted extrapolation from the June household survey estimated that the count of those employed actually fell by an estimated 18,000 to 151,602,000, while the similarly estimated number of those unemployed rose by 168,000 to 9,484,000; which together meant that June saw a net increase of 151,000 in the total labor force…since the working age population had grown by 128,000 over the same period, that meant the number of employment aged individuals who were not in the labor force fell by a rounded 22,000 to 100,253,000….the increase of those in the labor force was not enough to raise the labor force participation rate, which remained at 61.6%….likewise, the small change in the number employed vis a vis the increase in the population left the employment to population ratio, which we could think of as an employment rate, unchanged at 58.0%…however, the increase in the number counted as unemployed was enough to raise the unemployment rate from 5.8% to 5.9%….meanwhile, the number who reported they were involuntarily working part time fell by 644,000 to 4,627,000 in June, which was enough to lower the alternative measure of unemployment, U-6, which includes those “employed part time for economic reasons”, from 10.2% in May to 9.8% in June, the lowest since March of last year….
Like most reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the employment situation press release itself is easy to read and understand, so you can get more details on these two reports from there . . . note that almost every paragraph in that release points to one or more of the tables that are linked to on the bottom of the release, and those tables are also on a separate html page here that you can open it alongside the press release to avoid the need to scroll up and down the page..