Processing Center Percentages are “Not” On Time Delivery Percentages
Steve Hutkins of Save the Post Office has been live blogging and providing updates to the 12 federal district court cases filed. In the November 6, 2020 Update Steve discusses the delivery updates being filed in court and which are being used by some news outlets to show the USPS has been delivering ballots late and not on Election Day. Steve cautions against the use of this data as actual delivery dates are different than processing dates.
November 6, 2020 Update
The Postal Service’s daily reports on service performance, election mail, and late/extra trips (submitted as part of the Joint Order from the courts in Richardson, Vote Forward, and NAACP) can be found here.
Steve Hutkins: One note about these daily reports on election mail. Some news reports are looking at these reports and misinterpreting the data and saying things like this:
“The data based on scans of ballot envelopes that were filed in Sullivan’s court Wednesday suggested that in South Florida, just 85.12% of the mail-in-ballots were delivered on Election Day and in central Pennsylvania, just 61.3% of the mail-ballots in the postal system were delivered on time both of which were based on the scan data in the court filing shown. In Philadelphia, slightly more than 66% of the mail-in ballots had been delivered on Election Day. In Atlanta 82.2% percent of the mail-in ballots were delivered on Election Day, the court filing shows.”
The daily numbers being reported do not indicate how much of the mail was delivered on time, i.e., within the service standard of two or three days. These numbers are processing scores, i.e., the percent of the ballots that went through the processing network on time. They do not encompass;
the “first mile” (the step between a voter dropping a ballot in the mail and its arrival at a processing center) or the “last mile” (from post office to letter carrier to destination).
The processing scores therefore do not represent the percentage that was delivered on time. It’s possible that some of the mail that was “late” going through the processing system did get delivered on time thanks to the extraordinary measures the Postal Service used to expedite ballot mail. It’s also important to recognize that even the processing scores are not entirely reliable for various reasons, including the fact that some ballots didn’t get an exit scan in the processing system because they went through an expedited process to the election center destination.
The Washington Post has been careful about how it explains the numbers and makes it clear that the numbers are processing scores. For example, one recent article put it this way:
“Nearly 7 percent of ballots in U.S. Postal Service sorting facilities on Tuesday were not processed on time for submission to election officials, according to data the agency filed Wednesday in federal court, potentially leaving tens of thousands of ballots caught in the mail system during an especially tight presidential race. The Postal Service reported the timely processing — which includes most mail-handling steps outside of pickup and delivery — of 93.3 percent of ballots on Election Day, its best processing score in several days, but still well below the 97-percent target that postal and voting experts say the agency should hit.”
The Postal Service has been posting weekly reports that do show on time delivery performance, but these reports come out a couple of weeks later. You can find these reports here. The report for the week of Oct. 24 will be added tomorrow. It will take a couple more weeks before we see the service performance numbers for election week.
Does not matter. As long as mail arrived to the post office after the deadline this should be registered as late in the database and returned to the sender as late. Otherwise you enter “flexible deadline” regime which invites abuse, as in 24 hours preliminary results are known.
What is important is to make obligatory presence of at least two observers from each party during counting of votes. all the time. And 100% time videotaping of the process.
Also mail ballots historically were the source of blatant abuse (it is much easier to bribe a person and fill the ballot for him than force him to go to the voting booth and enter names that you want).
The fact that in some places we have abnormally high, close to the USSR levels percentages of voters participation is a red flag.
Anything above 60 percent or ten year average (whatever is higher) in the USA is highly suspect of manipulation by one or another party and should invite investigation and possibly recounting.
Few people were exited by this election (and especially by Trump or Biden personalities — Buffoon vs Corpse as one think talk named them in their simulation of 2020 elections ).
Most votes were perverted version of lesser evilism — people voted for the candidate they hated less, while they hated both.
And this is a part and parcel of the Crisis of neoliberalism which we experience which involved de-legitimization of neoliberal elite and PMC — professional, managerial class — intelligentsia as French call them )
And such cases, unfortunately, easily can be played to de-legitimize elections (which is a typical tactic of color revolutions for those who do not know the term). Which is what happening now as a replay of 2016 but from Repug side.
Historically Democratic Party specialized in election rigging via party machine mechanisms. They have been doing it since the 1790s. They were the party of political machines — Tammany, Pendergast, Cook County.
BTW clear glass ballot boxes were invented in the USA to prevent abuse (including use of hidden pockets pre-staffed with ballots )
Here are some warning signs listed by Ron Paul:
I live here in Michigan Repubs have controlled the Senate since 1990. Repubs have controlled the House 80+% of the time since 1990. Repubs have had the Governorship two of 3 times since 1990 up till Whitmer. The Repubs have had a Trifecta 2 of three times. Do you really think Dems could pull this off? Repubs have the legislature today and the courts. And the state is falling apart additionally. Michigan had 725,000 additional voters this year. Most of the Dem vote was done by mail. Repubs refused to allow the vote counting a day earlier. So it took longer in Michigan than other states which were allowed to start earlier. The same could hold true in Georgia and Nevada and PA. Most states do not count mail-ins till after the in person vote is done.
I did not know you were such a trump-kiss-ass. It kind of makes everything else you said previously BS.
Oh and by the way, when you use process scores as actual delivery scores which were higher, it skews what is really happening and feeds your conspiracy theory. Get it right as it does matter and that is what Repubs are reporting in Court.
What party controls Wisconsin and Pennsylvania’s legislature? The party which you are vocally supporting right now. This is the same party which is whining about a Democratic win. Twenty thousand vote win in Wisconsin and a 34,000 vote win in Pennsylvania. What do you think happened in Michigan? trump and Republicans were trounced by 146,000 votes. It was not even close in Michigan. ~725,000 new votes in Michigan of which ~500,000 were Dems. Only in 2008 was the Dem vote in 2020 exceeded (80,000).
There was no whining in 2016 when the margin of the win in Michigan was 10,000. In Michigan, the recount is also show and meant to disrupt.
In Wisconsin, 300,000 more voters turned out. The margin was 20,000 in 2020 as compared to 22,000 in 2016. What is the big deal? Wisconsin has a history of small margins determining elections.
In PA, another historical turnout of 600,000 more voters in 2020 as compared to 2016. The margin was 36,000 as opposed to 44,000 and historically low. Repubs control the PA legislature. How can that be the Dems caused voter irregularities in a Repub controlled state?
Another factoid, the vote for other than Repub or Dem candidates was back to normal and partially fed those increases. A lot of white whining about the return of the black vote. People conveniently forget how they suppress the minority vote in various ways.
In Georgia, Repubs have been dominant since 1964. In 2020, it was an historically high vote with 800,000 more voters turning out. ~550,000 of that vote went to Dems and 250,000 new votes went to Repubs. Others vote dropped by 100,000. Dems crushed Repubs in a Repub run state. How can that be with Dems crushing Repubs in a Repub run state? Repubs have a trifecta in Georgia and yet those sneaky Dem bastards threw the election. Say it ain’t so, likbez!
Trifecta in Arizona also. First time “ever” and the Dem vote for Pres exceed the Repub vote. Maybe people are tired of the Repub BS?
Quit spewing your neoliberal garbage and look at the numeric. I would have preferred someone younger and more vibrant. We did not get that person in Biden. Hopefully, he serves one term and retires. The Dem surges deserves a younger leader and I to am too old.
United States Presidential Election Results
Relegated to the trash heap Mr. Repub.