April Was Trump’s Cruelest Month
Covid-19 won when he tweeted LIBERATE MINNESOTA.
By Paul Krugman
On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence peddled an extraordinary fantasy about Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus. Pence’s tale of heroic, decisive leadership was so completely at odds with reality that pretty much the only words he spoke that weren’t lies were “a,” “and,” and “the.”
And most media organizations did, indeed, point out the falsehoods.
Yet what seems to me to be missing from much of the commentary on the Republican carnival of disinformation is an acknowledgment that Trump’s worst hour came not during Covid-19’s initial surge but weeks later, when he did all he could to push America into a reckless — and maskless — reopening.
And he’s doing it again. Speaker after speaker at the Republican National Convention referred to Covid-19, if at all, in the past tense. Their not-so-subtle message was that the pandemic is over. But it isn’t, and the Trump administration is still failing to protect the American people.
If I had to pick a single day when America lost the fight against the coronavirus, it would be April 17. That was the day when Trump proclaimed his support for mobs — some of whose members were carrying guns — that were threatening Democratic state governments and demanding an end to social distancing. “LIBERATE MINNESOTA,” he tweeted, followed by “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd amendment.” (That last bit reads an awful lot like an incitement to armed insurrection.)
In so doing, Trump, in his eagerness to see good economic numbers, chose to disregard warnings from health experts that returning to business as usual would lead to a new surge in infections. And while the Democratic governors he targeted mostly ignored his taunts, many Republican governors, especially in the Sunbelt, rushed to remove restrictions on restaurants, bars, even gyms.
The result was a vast national catastrophe.
As in the early days of the pandemic, Trump and those around him wasted crucial weeks denying what was happening and refusing to take action. On June 16 an article * by Mike Pence declared that there wasn’t a coronavirus ‘‘second wave.” (Spoiler: there was.) Four days later Trump held an indoor rally in Tulsa, without social distancing and with very few people wearing masks, in an apparent attempt to convey the sense that things were fine.
Of course, things weren’t fine. Here’s one way to see how fine they weren’t: On the day Trump issued his LIBERATE demands, around 33,000 Americans had died from Covid-19. The total now is around 180,000. That is, the vast majority of Covid-19 deaths in the United States have occurred since Trump effectively tried to sound the all-clear.
To be fair, some of those additional deaths would surely have happened even if Trump had done what he should have done: urged states to impose and maintain strict limits on indoor gatherings, called for social distancing, encouraged Americans to wear masks instead of ridiculing the practice and so on. But many, perhaps most, of those deaths could have been avoided.
Furthermore, the cost of Trump’s fecklessness went beyond the unnecessary loss of life and the long-term health damage that, it seems increasingly likely, will afflict many of those who survived Covid-19. The promised economic rebound is also falling short. Reopening produced a brief surge of returning jobs, but most states have now either paused or reversed their reopening, and employment growth appears to have slowed drastically.
And then there’s the effect on education. By abandoning the fight against the coronavirus in the spring, Trump and company made it impossible for the nation’s children to have anything resembling a normal school year in the fall.
Germany, whose response to Covid-19 has been infinitely better than ours, has managed to reopen its schools more or less normally, amid constant testing and quick actions to contain potential outbreaks. For America, that’s an impossible dream, and the damage we’re doing to basic education will scar the nation for decades to come.
Now, the U.S. situation appears to have improved a bit over the past couple of weeks: closing bars and mandating masks seem to have led to a decline in new infections and deaths. But these tentative, fragile gains could easily be squandered by a return to irresponsible policy.
And Trump and company appear to have lost none of their eagerness to do the wrong thing.
It’s not just the speeches at the R.N.C. Trump loyalists are back to hawking miracle cures, with the F.D.A. making claims about the virtues of administering blood plasma that baffled experts. And on Wednesday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — probably in response to political pressure — made the shockingly irresponsible suggestion that people without Covid-19 symptoms abstain from testing.
In other words, there’s every indication that the Trumpists want to do the same thing now they’ve done twice before: deal with a deadly pandemic by pretending that it either doesn’t exist or is already going away. And the third time will definitely not be the charm.
Chinese mainland reports 9 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 9 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, all from overseas, Chinese health authorities said on Friday. This is the 12th consecutive day that the mainland has reported no domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Thursday, while 45 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,013 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 358 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Fed Chair Sets Stage for Longer Periods of Lower Rates
Jerome H. Powell said the central bank would focus its efforts on fostering a strong labor market while tolerating higher inflation.
By Jeanna Smialek
Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, announced a major shift in how the central bank guides the economy, signaling it will make job growth pre-eminent and will not raise interest rates to guard against coming inflation just because the unemployment rate is low.
In emphasizing the importance of a strong labor market and saying the Fed will tolerate slightly faster price gains, Mr. Powell and his colleagues laid the groundwork for years of low interest rates. That could translate into long periods of cheap mortgages and business loans that foster strong demand and a solid job market.
The changes, which Mr. Powell detailed at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole policy symposium, follows a year-and-a-half long review of the central bank’s monetary policy strategy. In conjunction with his remarks, the Fed released an outline of its long-run policy plan.
“Our revised statement emphasizes that maximum employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal,” Mr. Powell said in the remarks. “This change reflects our appreciation for the benefits of a strong labor market, particularly for many in low- and moderate-income communities.”
Market reaction to Mr. Powell’s announcement was mixed. Investors had already penciled in years of rock-bottom interest rates and analysts will be watching for more concrete rate guidance at the Fed’s upcoming meetings.
Still, Mr. Powell’s announcement could mark a defining moment in his tenure as chair, which began in early 2018 in the midst of the longest economic expansion on record and has run straight into the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. The Fed raised rates nine times between 2015 and late 2018, with four of those increases under Mr. Powell’s watch, as it tried to guard against inflation. Price increases instead stagnated, making the Fed’s moves seem like overkill and helping to inspire and inform the policy review.
The central bank is facing major long run challenges as price gains prove tepid and as interest rates have slipped lower across advanced economies including the United States, leaving Fed officials with less room to cut borrowing costs and coax higher growth following recessions. Those slow-burn problems are what prompted Mr. Powell and his colleagues to revamp their policy framework. At the same time, the coronavirus pandemic has created a significant short-run threat, shuttering businesses and costing millions of people their jobs.
Mr. Powell’s announcement codifies a critical change in how the central bank tries to achieve its twin goals of maximum employment and stable inflation — one that could inform how the Fed sets monetary policy in the wake of the pandemic-induced recession.
The Fed had long raised rates as joblessness fell to avoid an economic overheating that might result in breakaway inflation — the boogeyman that has haunted monetary policy ever since price gains hit double-digit levels in the 1970s. But the Fed’s updated framework recognizes that too low inflation is now the problem, rather than too high.
“It seems like a pretty subtle shift to most normal human beings,” said Janet L. Yellen, the former Fed Chair. But “most of the Fed’s history has revolved around keeping inflation under control. This really does reflect a decisive recognition that we’re in a very different environment.”
The Fed’s revised statement says that its policies will be informed by “shortfalls” of employment from its maximum level, rather than by “deviations” — suggesting that the central bank is no longer planning to raise rates to cool off the economy simply because unemployment has dipped to low levels….
What to do for post-pandemic unemployed? Trick Answer
What to do for today’s 30 million unemployed after the pandemic is over? Half of whom, especially lowest wage workers, may not find jobs welcoming them back. Out on the sidewalk until the labor market processes massive reshaping?
Suppose we could ease their predicament indirectly by paying employed lower wage workers – bottom 40% earners – twice as much as we paid for the same work before (“we” because ultimately we are talking consumers paying more). Many employed and unemployed abide in the same households, families, etc. Pre-pandemic, the bottom 40% took 10% of overall income – we should like to double the wages of this segment just in principle.
Increase fast food labor costs 50% and consumer prices rise only 12.5% — due to 25% labor costs (Micky D’s). Double (!) more typical firms’ labor costs and prices rise but 12.5% — thanks to 10-15% labor costs (Target, Walgreen’s). Triple (!!!) extreme lowest labor cost firms labor costs and prices could climb only 14% — as low as 7% labor costs (Walmart).
Let’s guess that an average 12.5% increase in prices would cause 10% loss of sales — just to have a number to work with. If most similar businesses were raising prices at the same time there wouldn’t be many places to go for cheaper. With twice the money to burn, enough new low wage largess would work its way back into Micky D’s, Target, Walgreen’s and Walmart’s cash registers to make up for some of 10% sales losses.
The lower 40%’s newly added income and the upper 60%’s subtracted income (lost sales) should reshuffle overall demand somewhat towards the lower end of the consumer price spectrum. High end restaurant sales, for contrast, would not benefit from across the board low wage increases.
Counterfactual: a historic sufficiency of American labor unions would have delivered such fairer labor costs/consumer price match-ups long since.
* * * * * *
Click here for SEIU counsel Andrew Strom’s proposed path to adequate union membership — with no threats and no sweat. Adequate defined as: anyone who wants to be in a union (or does not want to be) is guaranteed the opportunity to exercise their will on the subject in cyclical balloting. https://onlabor.org/why-not-hold-union-representation-elections-on-a-regular-schedule/
It would be cute if some would-be union members somewhere – whose election was being stolen in advance via the long ingrained union busting practices – made up some form of parody mail-in ballots for union certification election (union elections are not voted by mail but this is a parody to make a point) and sent them via USPS to their Congressional representative(s) – petitioning for regularly scheduled cert/recert/decert elections as prescribed by attorney Strom. Be a lot cuter if every would-be union member everywhere – and every already belonging union member everywhere — would swamp Congress with enough mock mail-in union ballots for their reps to finally take the hint how the second most precious species of elections in this country have been getting stolen for fair bargaining denied decades.
Come to think, dosing extra money to today’s employed could spread needed succor to today’s unemployed 30 million — supplement the supplements. And it wouldn’t cost the treasury a thin dime.
* * * * * *
Min wage addendum (what good is $15?)
In a” legit” labor market — where as many employees as want to collectively bargain can do so – setting a minimum wage wouldn’t accomplish much. It would only mark the best wage that the lowest able to pay employer could manage (e.g., fast food with 25% labor costs). All other employed would be paid more by definition.
Thinking that doubling wages only impacts the specific labor expenses of the employer is unrealistic. Many other costs for businesses in the final analysis are driven by labor costs, even if they are not the businesses’ own labor.. Target has to raise prices by 14%? Well their logistics partners are going to feel the pressure from their employees and pretty soon that cost has gone up. Nurses who buy kids toys at Target have to have a raise, so the health insurance goes up another tick. “You want your parking lot plowed for what you paid last year? Now that’s funny.” Over time the ability of certain occupations to get incremental wages is revealed, but if you put a 100% input into a couple of places, it is going to flow in a lot of directions before that rebalance happens.
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result is a persistent community infection level contributing to what are now 112,000 cases in the small country as compared to 85,013 through all of mainland China.
Clinical Characteristics and Viral RNA Detection in Children With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Republic of Korea
By Mi Seon Han, Eun Hwa Choi, Sung Hee Chang, Byoung-Lo Jin, Eun Joo Lee, et al.
Key Points
Question How long is severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA detected in children, and are children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) identifiable by symptoms?
Findings In this case series of 91 children with COVID-19 in Korea, 22.0% were asymptomatic. Only 8.5% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed at the time of symptom onset, while 66.2% had unrecognized symptoms before diagnosis and 25.4% developed symptoms after diagnosis; SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected for a mean of 17.6 days overall and 14.1 days in asymptomatic cases.
Meaning Symptom screening fails to identify most COVID-19 cases in children, and SARS-CoV-2 RNA in children is detected for an unexpectedly long time.
Our “law is what I say it is, and order is how I demand it to be” president I can only cringe at, making nonsense of speech. If there is a debate, and I don’t know why anyone would want to listen to the endless lies, I hope Biden wouldn’t be afraid to address him as liar with every response.
Chinese mainland reports 9 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 9 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, all from overseas, Chinese health authorities said on Saturday. This is the 13th consecutive day that the mainland has reported no domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Thursday, while 35 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,022 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 351 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.
Since June there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.
Covid, brought to you by Trump. Riots brought to you by Trump. Depression brought to you by Trump. Republicans are good for the economy the way depressions are good for the economy.
Eric377,
I’ve thought of this — but more money coming to one segment of the workforce is deducted from the other segment (in this case, lower 40 percentile from upper 60) doesn’t increase non-labor costs overall. That’s the best I can do from the theory angle anyway — haven’t really parsed the whole thing out.
Ultimate answer of course is that this is not going to affect union/employer negotiations who will only be concerned with what’s in front of them. If inflation results, then, of course time to negotiate inflation adjustments. “The market” will sort it all out.
Trump Program to Cover Uninsured Covid-19 Patients Falls Short of Promise
Some patients are still receiving staggering bills. Others don’t qualify because conditions other than Covid-19 were their primary diagnosis.
By Abby Goodnough
WASHINGTON — Marilyn Cortez, a retired cafeteria worker in Houston with no health insurance, spent much of July in the hospital with Covid-19. When she finally returned home, she received a $36,000 bill that compounded the stress of her illness.
Then someone from the hospital, Houston Methodist, called and told her not to worry — President Trump had paid it.
But then another bill arrived, for twice as much.
Ms. Cortez’s care is supposed to be covered under a program Mr. Trump announced this spring as the coronavirus pandemic was taking hold — a time when millions of people were losing their health insurance and the administration was doubling down on trying to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, the law that had expanded coverage to more than 20 million people.
“This should alleviate any concern uninsured Americans may have about seeking the coronavirus treatment,” Mr. Trump said in April about the program, which is supposed to cover testing and treatment for uninsured people with Covid-19, using money from the federal coronavirus relief package passed by Congress.
The program has drawn little attention since, but a review by The New York Times of payments made through it, as well as interviews with hospital executives, patients and health policy researchers who have examined the payments, suggest the quickly concocted plan has not lived up to its promise. It has caused confusion at participating hospitals, which in some cases have mistakenly billed patients like Ms. Cortez who should be covered by it. Few patients seem to know the program exists, so they don’t question the charges. And some hospitals and other medical providers have chosen not to participate in the program, which bars them from seeking any payment from patients whose bills they submit to it.
Large numbers of patients have also been disqualified because Covid-19 has to be the primary diagnosis for a case to be covered (unless the patient is pregnant). Since hospitalized Covid patients often have other serious medical conditions, many have other primary diagnoses. At Jackson Health in Miami, for example, only 60 percent of uninsured Covid-19 patients had decisively met the requirements to have their charges covered under the program as of late July, a spokeswoman said….
Trump Program to Cover Uninsured Covid-19 Patients Falls Short of Promise
Some patients are still receiving staggering bills. Others don’t qualify because conditions other than Covid-19 were their primary diagnosis.
7:32 AM · Aug 29, 2020
His payroll tax cut/not a tax cut looks so bad that it’s hard to imagine many employers implementing it 2/
Trump’s push to defer payroll taxes could lead to smaller paychecks for workers in early 2021, Treasury signals
New guidance from Treasury and IRS raise questions about White House assertion that the taxes will be wiped clean
Millions of workers could see smaller paychecks in the first few months of 2021 after the Treasury Department on Friday told employers they would be on the hook for the payroll taxes deferred under President Trump’s recent order.
Thank you. Can you also list people who predicted over million of death at the beginning of this epidemic. Including those who published nice graphs and make those predictions here.
We need to know names of our heroes, if only to evaluate correctly the value of their current predictions.
New York Times Reports that 0.01 Percent of the Paycheck Protection Program was Fraudulently Spent
By Dean Baker
Yep, that’s its big story * for the day, although people probably saw the number $62 million in the headline. The program spent a total of $525 billion to keep small businesses alive and workers being paid in the period where the economy was largely shut down. It was a rushed program that was completely improvised, since nothing had ever been done like this before.
It was inevitable that there would be some fraud, since the safeguards were obviously far from perfect. In fact, we can be sure that the $62 million uncovered by the Justice Department to date is just the tip of the iceberg. However, rather than implying to readers that this figure is evidence of widespread fraud, it actually is the opposite. It is a very small amount of fraud given the size of the program and the rush to get money out the door. Even if the final tally for fraud ends up being one hundred times this amount, it would be pretty good for a huge program that was put together from scratch.
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 113,337 cases in the small country as compared to 85,022 through all of mainland China.
The Dominican Republic has been the fastest growing country in GDP per capita in the Western Hemisphere since 1971. Cuba has been continually sanctioned economically by the US through these years, however Cuba has a far superior healthcare system as reflected now in the coronavirus experience of the countries and for years past in a range of critical healthcare experiences from infant mortality to life expectancy.
Year 2018 (the latest @lisdata for the United States) was pretty good. US mean per capita income (from HH surveys) increased by almost 8% in nominal terms; even more than per capita consumption from national accounts (5.5%) or GDPpc (4.5%). [2018 inflation was 2.4%] pic.twitter.com/qL6CbGsFax
Year 2018 (the latest @lisdata for the United States) was pretty good. US mean per capita income (from household surveys) increased by almost 8% in nominal terms; * even more than per capita consumption from national accounts (5.5%) or GDPpc (4.5%).
* 2018 inflation was 2.4%
At the same time US income inequality, measured by market income (=income before social transfers and direct taxes) or disposable income (=after direct taxes & transfers) Ginis was remarkably stable. So stable in fact, that the graph is super boring.
Chinese mainland reports 9 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 9 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, all from overseas, Chinese health authorities said on Sunday. This is the 14th consecutive day that the mainland has reported no domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Saturday, while 27 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,031 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 338 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
The city of Phoenix has reached a settlement with a Black family for more than $470,000 after a widely viewed video last year showed police officers drawing their weapons and shouting expletives at the family while responding to a shoplifting complaint.
No charges were filed in connection with the episode and at least one officer was fired.
Members of the City Council voted 6 to 2 on Wednesday to approve the settlement for the two people involved in the episode, Dravon Ames and Iesha Harper.
A notice of claim that their lawyer sent to the city said the officers violated their civil rights and engaged in brutality during the episode.
“I just want to say, I’m glad we got justice,” Ms. Harper said at a news conference, The Associated Press reported. “It’s been hell dealing with my kids and everything that happened.”
Their lawyer, Thomas C. Horne, a former Arizona state attorney general, said last year that the officers’ actions had been “traumatic and utterly unjustified.”
Although Mr. Horne said the overall settlement was for $500,000, the city said in a statement on Saturday that the award was for $475,000.
“The settlement is to compensate Ms. Harper and her two children for injuries they may have suffered as a result of a Police Department call for service,” the statement said. A majority of the payment will go into a structured settlement for the children, it said.
The episode drew widespread attention as police encounters with civilians have faced heightened scrutiny, which is increasingly augmented by videos captured by bystanders on cellphones or by officers’ body cameras.
The settlement comes as racial unrest has been amplified nationwide after the shooting of Jacob Blake in Wisconsin and the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. It’s one of the latest settlements in claims of excessive-force or wrongful death that have cost the city millions, The Arizona Republic reported.
The Phoenix Police Department has said the episode, which happened in May 2019, began after a Family Dollar store manager alerted an officer to a possible shoplifting and said that those being sought were getting into a car.
The notice of claim said that Mr. Ames and Ms. Harper had not realized until they were back at their car that their 4-year-old daughter had walked out of the store with a doll. …
Four Chinese COVID-19 vaccines undergoing phase-3 clinical trials
Four Chinese COVID-19 vaccine candidates have started international phase-3 clinical trials, according to the State Council joint prevention and control mechanism against COVID-19.
Some of the phase-3 trials are expected to complete the first round of vaccinations in early September, with preliminary data expected as early as November.
Phase-3 clinical trial usually involves thousands of people to verify the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines, which is the key to their market approval.
As the epidemic has been under control in China, the country no longer has conditions for large-scale clinical trials, so all the phase-3 trials are being carried out overseas.
Two inactivated COVID-19 vaccines developed by the China National Biotec Group (CNBG) have been approved for phase-3 clinical trials in several countries in the Middle East and South America, involving more than 30,000 people, according to Yang Xiaoming, president of the CNBG.
An inactivated COVID-19 vaccine developed by Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd. is undergoing phase-3 clinical trials in some countries in South America and Southeast Asia, according to Yin Weidong, chairman and CEO of Sinovac.
A recombinant COVID-19 vaccine with the modified defective adenovirus as the vector is also undergoing phase-3 trials.
According to a guideline for the clinical evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines recently released by the National Medical Products Administration, the vaccine should provide immunity for at least six months, preferably for more than a year.
This is an interesting piece. But I'd say it implicitly gives Mnuchin far too much credit for the economic rescue of March, and also doesn't give the right take on who he is — the last oblivious but probably not fascist right-winger on the Trump team 1/ https://t.co/3nQYJAqMEC
This is an interesting piece. But I’d say it implicitly gives Mnuchin far too much credit for the economic rescue of March, and also doesn’t give the right take on who he is — the last oblivious but probably not fascist right-winger on the Trump team 1/
Steven Mnuchin Tried to Save the Economy. Not Even His Family Is Happy.
The coronavirus was an opportunity for the Treasury secretary to redefine his legacy, for better or worse.
11:56 AM · Aug 30, 2020
So, about that rescue: two crucial things kept the U.S. economy from going into total meltdown this spring. One was the Fed’s extremely aggressive intervention to stabilize financial markets, which was basically Jerome Powell, not anyone in the Trump team 2/
The other was the CARES Act, which contained a bunch of stuff. All indications, however, are that the really crucial element was that $600 a week supplement to unemployment benefits. Those $1200 checks appear to mostly have been saved; it was UI that provided the stimulus 3/
And the $600 was, of course, a Democratic idea, which most Republicans hated. Mnuchin gets some credit for helping sell Trump on letting it get enacted anyway. But it’s really Pelosi/Schumer policy 4/
So, where does Mnuchin fit? The Trump administration initially included a fair number of right-wingers with some independent status, who somehow didn’t fully take on the nature of what they were joining. Gary Cohn; Rex Tillerson; in a different way, James Mattis 5/
They’re all gone now, either fired or having left because they finally saw what was in front of their noses. Mnuchin is still there. I don’t know whether he is just oblivious to who he’s serving, or totally amoral — not mutually exclusive categories 6/
And for whatever reason, Trump hasn’t replaced him with a personality-cult loyalist, which has turned Mnuchin into the relative voice of reason — not because he’s smart, or even reasonable, but because look at who we’re comparing him to 7/
And for what it’s worth, whatever moderating influence he may have exerted is hard to see now, with benefits cut off and the admin’s main policy idea — payroll tax deferment — looking like a sick joke 8/
Or to put it differently, in an administration that includes Barr and Pompeo, where Kushner is treated as a universal expert, Mnuchin doesn’t look so bad. But in a normal administration he would look terrible 9/
As Sam Bell points out, Ron Wyden is most directly responsible for the $600 a week. Party leaders backed him, but credit where due 10/
[ We have a severe institutional failing of our healthcare system reflected in the data on the coronavirus, and this institutional failing needs to be carefully analyzed and the system reformed, but as yet I find no interest in the matter. ]
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 114,020 cases in the small country as compared to 85,031 through all of mainland China.
While the Dominican Republic has been the fastest growing country in Gross Domestic Product per capita in the Western Hemisphere since 1971, Cuba has been continually sanctioned economically by the United States through these years. However Cuba has a far superior healthcare system as reflected now in the coronavirus experience of the countries and for years past in a range of critical healthcare experiences from infant mortality to life expectancy.
Big Oil Is in Trouble. Its Plan: Flood Africa With Plastic.
Faced with plunging profits and a climate crisis that threatens fossil fuels, the industry is demanding a trade deal that weakens Kenya’s rules on plastics and on imports of American trash.
By Hiroko Tabuchi, Michael Corkery and Carlos Mureithi
Confronting a climate crisis that threatens the fossil fuel industry, oil companies are racing to make more plastic. But they face two problems: Many markets are already awash with plastic, and few countries are willing to be dumping grounds for the world’s plastic waste.
The industry thinks it has found a solution to both problems in Africa.
According to documents reviewed by The New York Times, an industry group representing the world’s largest chemical makers and fossil fuel companies is lobbying to influence United States trade negotiations with Kenya, one of Africa’s biggest economies, to reverse its strict limits on plastics — including a tough plastic-bag ban. It is also pressing for Kenya to continue importing foreign plastic garbage, a practice it has pledged to limit….
[ Maniacal viciousness, maniacal prejudice. As though we are intent on waging Opium Wars on Africa. ]
Big Oil Is in Trouble. Its Plan: Flood Africa With Plastic.
Faced with plunging profits and a climate crisis that threatens fossil fuels, the industry is demanding a trade deal that weakens Kenya’s rules on plastics and on imports of American trash.
By Hiroko Tabuchi, Michael Corkery and Carlos Mureithi
[ Lawrence Summers in 1991, famously suggested from the desk of the World Bank that “dirty industries” be moved to Africa. * So why should I be surprised now?
Chinese mainland reports 17 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 17 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, all from overseas, Chinese health authorities said on Monday. This is the 15th consecutive day that the mainland has reported no domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Sunday, while 24 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,048 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 340 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
What strikes me as sure, is that the experience we have had with the spread of coronavirus infections reflects an institutional problem with the system of American healthcare. However, to my continuing surprise, there seems to be almost interest in examining the system to implement changes. The problem is no individual direction, but a systemic failure, but where is there any interest?
This is going to result in one of those “I told you this was going to happen” moments sometime in the future when people and politicians with faux surprise or dawning realize how bad it was and still is. This morning’s news announces trumps new advisor Scott Atlas supports a herd immunity approach. As if the morgues are not filled now? If China can control it, why can’t the US? Perhaps because our fearless leader trump and other leaders are there for other reasons other than serving the people. New Trump pandemic adviser pushes controversial ‘herd immunity’ strategy
“Why hasn’t it worked in Sweden? ‘Experience suggests that severely infected COVID-19 patients acquire antibodies immediately and during early recovery, but antibodies are much less common in only mildly ill or asymptomatic patients. This means they are likely not immune, and can’t prevent the spread of the virus, the study noted. This is central to the concept of herd immunity.
In the other Scandinavian countries, rapid lockdown appeared more successful in stopping the spread of infection,’ Goldsmith said.
The one strategy Trump never seems to have considered is that of taking the pandemic seriously and trying to save American lives https://t.co/TPgOs3wrPt
New Trump pandemic adviser pushes controversial ‘herd immunity’ strategy, worrying public health officials
Scott Atlas has expanded his influence inside the White House by advocating policies that appeal to the president’s desire to move past the pandemic and get the economy going.
Scott Atlas, the pandemic adviser to the president, is neither an infectious disease specialist nor an epidemiologist. Atlas is a public health philosopher, essentially a libertarian who considers a lack of constraint is proper for dealing with an epidemic. Where the point of healthcare begins with doing no harm, a libertarian is willing that harm be done for the sake of individual freedom. Herd immunity in this epidemic is a libertarian rationale, no more.
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 116,596 cases in the small country as compared to 85,048 through all of mainland China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/opinion/donald-trump-coronavirus.html
August 27, 2020
April Was Trump’s Cruelest Month
Covid-19 won when he tweeted LIBERATE MINNESOTA.
By Paul Krugman
On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence peddled an extraordinary fantasy about Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus. Pence’s tale of heroic, decisive leadership was so completely at odds with reality that pretty much the only words he spoke that weren’t lies were “a,” “and,” and “the.”
And most media organizations did, indeed, point out the falsehoods.
Yet what seems to me to be missing from much of the commentary on the Republican carnival of disinformation is an acknowledgment that Trump’s worst hour came not during Covid-19’s initial surge but weeks later, when he did all he could to push America into a reckless — and maskless — reopening.
And he’s doing it again. Speaker after speaker at the Republican National Convention referred to Covid-19, if at all, in the past tense. Their not-so-subtle message was that the pandemic is over. But it isn’t, and the Trump administration is still failing to protect the American people.
If I had to pick a single day when America lost the fight against the coronavirus, it would be April 17. That was the day when Trump proclaimed his support for mobs — some of whose members were carrying guns — that were threatening Democratic state governments and demanding an end to social distancing. “LIBERATE MINNESOTA,” he tweeted, followed by “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd amendment.” (That last bit reads an awful lot like an incitement to armed insurrection.)
In so doing, Trump, in his eagerness to see good economic numbers, chose to disregard warnings from health experts that returning to business as usual would lead to a new surge in infections. And while the Democratic governors he targeted mostly ignored his taunts, many Republican governors, especially in the Sunbelt, rushed to remove restrictions on restaurants, bars, even gyms.
The result was a vast national catastrophe.
As in the early days of the pandemic, Trump and those around him wasted crucial weeks denying what was happening and refusing to take action. On June 16 an article * by Mike Pence declared that there wasn’t a coronavirus ‘‘second wave.” (Spoiler: there was.) Four days later Trump held an indoor rally in Tulsa, without social distancing and with very few people wearing masks, in an apparent attempt to convey the sense that things were fine.
Of course, things weren’t fine. Here’s one way to see how fine they weren’t: On the day Trump issued his LIBERATE demands, around 33,000 Americans had died from Covid-19. The total now is around 180,000. That is, the vast majority of Covid-19 deaths in the United States have occurred since Trump effectively tried to sound the all-clear.
To be fair, some of those additional deaths would surely have happened even if Trump had done what he should have done: urged states to impose and maintain strict limits on indoor gatherings, called for social distancing, encouraged Americans to wear masks instead of ridiculing the practice and so on. But many, perhaps most, of those deaths could have been avoided.
Furthermore, the cost of Trump’s fecklessness went beyond the unnecessary loss of life and the long-term health damage that, it seems increasingly likely, will afflict many of those who survived Covid-19. The promised economic rebound is also falling short. Reopening produced a brief surge of returning jobs, but most states have now either paused or reversed their reopening, and employment growth appears to have slowed drastically.
And then there’s the effect on education. By abandoning the fight against the coronavirus in the spring, Trump and company made it impossible for the nation’s children to have anything resembling a normal school year in the fall.
Germany, whose response to Covid-19 has been infinitely better than ours, has managed to reopen its schools more or less normally, amid constant testing and quick actions to contain potential outbreaks. For America, that’s an impossible dream, and the damage we’re doing to basic education will scar the nation for decades to come.
Now, the U.S. situation appears to have improved a bit over the past couple of weeks: closing bars and mandating masks seem to have led to a decline in new infections and deaths. But these tentative, fragile gains could easily be squandered by a return to irresponsible policy.
And Trump and company appear to have lost none of their eagerness to do the wrong thing.
It’s not just the speeches at the R.N.C. Trump loyalists are back to hawking miracle cures, with the F.D.A. making claims about the virtues of administering blood plasma that baffled experts. And on Wednesday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — probably in response to political pressure — made the shockingly irresponsible suggestion that people without Covid-19 symptoms abstain from testing.
In other words, there’s every indication that the Trumpists want to do the same thing now they’ve done twice before: deal with a deadly pandemic by pretending that it either doesn’t exist or is already going away. And the third time will definitely not be the charm.
* https://www.wsj.com/articles/there-isnt-a-coronavirus-second-wave-11592327890
August 27, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,046,634)
Deaths ( 184,796)
India
Cases ( 3,384,575)
Deaths ( 61,694)
Mexico
Cases ( 573,888)
Deaths ( 62,076)
UK
Cases ( 330,368)
Deaths ( 41,477)
France
Cases ( 259,698)
Deaths ( 30,576)
Germany
Cases ( 240,565)
Deaths ( 9,359)
Canada
Cases ( 126,848)
Deaths ( 9,102)
China
Cases ( 85,004)
Deaths ( 4,634)
August 27, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 610)
US ( 558)
Mexico ( 481)
France ( 468)
Canada ( 241)
Germany ( 112)
India ( 45)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.6%, 11.8% and 10.8% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TjznMhwI12/index.html
August 28, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 9 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 9 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, all from overseas, Chinese health authorities said on Friday. This is the 12th consecutive day that the mainland has reported no domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Thursday, while 45 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,013 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 358 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TjznMhwI12/img/6265b411cebc497dbe10a4e1de23b8bd/6265b411cebc497dbe10a4e1de23b8bd.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TjznMhwI12/img/1accfb32e5904dbcaae5071541feaf4d/1accfb32e5904dbcaae5071541feaf4d.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-28/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TjznMhwI12/img/d7cf2c4303334c3e9185e40f0eefcaf3/d7cf2c4303334c3e9185e40f0eefcaf3.jpeg
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/business/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-jerome-powell.html
August 27, 2020
Fed Chair Sets Stage for Longer Periods of Lower Rates
Jerome H. Powell said the central bank would focus its efforts on fostering a strong labor market while tolerating higher inflation.
By Jeanna Smialek
Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, announced a major shift in how the central bank guides the economy, signaling it will make job growth pre-eminent and will not raise interest rates to guard against coming inflation just because the unemployment rate is low.
In emphasizing the importance of a strong labor market and saying the Fed will tolerate slightly faster price gains, Mr. Powell and his colleagues laid the groundwork for years of low interest rates. That could translate into long periods of cheap mortgages and business loans that foster strong demand and a solid job market.
The changes, which Mr. Powell detailed at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole policy symposium, follows a year-and-a-half long review of the central bank’s monetary policy strategy. In conjunction with his remarks, the Fed released an outline of its long-run policy plan.
“Our revised statement emphasizes that maximum employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal,” Mr. Powell said in the remarks. “This change reflects our appreciation for the benefits of a strong labor market, particularly for many in low- and moderate-income communities.”
Market reaction to Mr. Powell’s announcement was mixed. Investors had already penciled in years of rock-bottom interest rates and analysts will be watching for more concrete rate guidance at the Fed’s upcoming meetings.
Still, Mr. Powell’s announcement could mark a defining moment in his tenure as chair, which began in early 2018 in the midst of the longest economic expansion on record and has run straight into the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. The Fed raised rates nine times between 2015 and late 2018, with four of those increases under Mr. Powell’s watch, as it tried to guard against inflation. Price increases instead stagnated, making the Fed’s moves seem like overkill and helping to inspire and inform the policy review.
The central bank is facing major long run challenges as price gains prove tepid and as interest rates have slipped lower across advanced economies including the United States, leaving Fed officials with less room to cut borrowing costs and coax higher growth following recessions. Those slow-burn problems are what prompted Mr. Powell and his colleagues to revamp their policy framework. At the same time, the coronavirus pandemic has created a significant short-run threat, shuttering businesses and costing millions of people their jobs.
Mr. Powell’s announcement codifies a critical change in how the central bank tries to achieve its twin goals of maximum employment and stable inflation — one that could inform how the Fed sets monetary policy in the wake of the pandemic-induced recession.
The Fed had long raised rates as joblessness fell to avoid an economic overheating that might result in breakaway inflation — the boogeyman that has haunted monetary policy ever since price gains hit double-digit levels in the 1970s. But the Fed’s updated framework recognizes that too low inflation is now the problem, rather than too high.
“It seems like a pretty subtle shift to most normal human beings,” said Janet L. Yellen, the former Fed Chair. But “most of the Fed’s history has revolved around keeping inflation under control. This really does reflect a decisive recognition that we’re in a very different environment.”
The Fed’s revised statement says that its policies will be informed by “shortfalls” of employment from its maximum level, rather than by “deviations” — suggesting that the central bank is no longer planning to raise rates to cool off the economy simply because unemployment has dipped to low levels….
August 28, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,049,116)
Deaths ( 184,927)
Something for everybody to think about – especially those who think UBI is an all or nothing step – no it is a scalable concept.
https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2020/04/veall.html
What to do for post-pandemic unemployed? Trick Answer
What to do for today’s 30 million unemployed after the pandemic is over? Half of whom, especially lowest wage workers, may not find jobs welcoming them back. Out on the sidewalk until the labor market processes massive reshaping?
Suppose we could ease their predicament indirectly by paying employed lower wage workers – bottom 40% earners – twice as much as we paid for the same work before (“we” because ultimately we are talking consumers paying more). Many employed and unemployed abide in the same households, families, etc. Pre-pandemic, the bottom 40% took 10% of overall income – we should like to double the wages of this segment just in principle.
Increase fast food labor costs 50% and consumer prices rise only 12.5% — due to 25% labor costs (Micky D’s). Double (!) more typical firms’ labor costs and prices rise but 12.5% — thanks to 10-15% labor costs (Target, Walgreen’s). Triple (!!!) extreme lowest labor cost firms labor costs and prices could climb only 14% — as low as 7% labor costs (Walmart).
Let’s guess that an average 12.5% increase in prices would cause 10% loss of sales — just to have a number to work with. If most similar businesses were raising prices at the same time there wouldn’t be many places to go for cheaper. With twice the money to burn, enough new low wage largess would work its way back into Micky D’s, Target, Walgreen’s and Walmart’s cash registers to make up for some of 10% sales losses.
The lower 40%’s newly added income and the upper 60%’s subtracted income (lost sales) should reshuffle overall demand somewhat towards the lower end of the consumer price spectrum. High end restaurant sales, for contrast, would not benefit from across the board low wage increases.
Counterfactual: a historic sufficiency of American labor unions would have delivered such fairer labor costs/consumer price match-ups long since.
* * * * * *
Click here for SEIU counsel Andrew Strom’s proposed path to adequate union membership — with no threats and no sweat. Adequate defined as: anyone who wants to be in a union (or does not want to be) is guaranteed the opportunity to exercise their will on the subject in cyclical balloting.
https://onlabor.org/why-not-hold-union-representation-elections-on-a-regular-schedule/
It would be cute if some would-be union members somewhere – whose election was being stolen in advance via the long ingrained union busting practices – made up some form of parody mail-in ballots for union certification election (union elections are not voted by mail but this is a parody to make a point) and sent them via USPS to their Congressional representative(s) – petitioning for regularly scheduled cert/recert/decert elections as prescribed by attorney Strom. Be a lot cuter if every would-be union member everywhere – and every already belonging union member everywhere — would swamp Congress with enough mock mail-in union ballots for their reps to finally take the hint how the second most precious species of elections in this country have been getting stolen for fair bargaining denied decades.
Come to think, dosing extra money to today’s employed could spread needed succor to today’s unemployed 30 million — supplement the supplements. And it wouldn’t cost the treasury a thin dime.
* * * * * *
Min wage addendum (what good is $15?)
In a” legit” labor market — where as many employees as want to collectively bargain can do so – setting a minimum wage wouldn’t accomplish much. It would only mark the best wage that the lowest able to pay employer could manage (e.g., fast food with 25% labor costs). All other employed would be paid more by definition.
In America’s actual shorn of employee bargaining power labor market (6.5% unions in private economy – and going down), the federal minimum wage is $5 below 1968’s $12 an hour (adjusted), back when per capita income was half (!) of today’s. Raising the minimum to $15 an hour in our unwell labor market would at least start wages in the general direction of what should have been realized by collective bargaining, long ago.
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=1.60&year1=196801&year2=202007
https://medium.com/@brandiwestjd/why-do-jobs-pay-so-little-e9145f69b57c
Read: It might help. http://angrybearblog.com/2012/12/raising-price-of-pizza-10-to-14-cents.html
August 28, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,059,951)
Deaths ( 185,160)
August 28, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,066,968)
Deaths ( 185,256)
Thinking that doubling wages only impacts the specific labor expenses of the employer is unrealistic. Many other costs for businesses in the final analysis are driven by labor costs, even if they are not the businesses’ own labor.. Target has to raise prices by 14%? Well their logistics partners are going to feel the pressure from their employees and pretty soon that cost has gone up. Nurses who buy kids toys at Target have to have a raise, so the health insurance goes up another tick. “You want your parking lot plowed for what you paid last year? Now that’s funny.” Over time the ability of certain occupations to get incremental wages is revealed, but if you put a 100% input into a couple of places, it is going to flow in a lot of directions before that rebalance happens.
A Biden/infrastructure boom and rising oil prices is a double whammy for 2021- credit markets. No wonder traders want Trump.
August 28, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,075,946)
Deaths ( 185,441)
August 28, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 112,000)
Deaths ( 894)
Deaths per million ( 97)
———————————–
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)
Deaths per million ( 36)
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result is a persistent community infection level contributing to what are now 112,000 cases in the small country as compared to 85,013 through all of mainland China.
August 28, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,081,295)
Deaths ( 185,516)
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2770150
August 28, 2020
Clinical Characteristics and Viral RNA Detection in Children With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Republic of Korea
By Mi Seon Han, Eun Hwa Choi, Sung Hee Chang, Byoung-Lo Jin, Eun Joo Lee, et al.
Key Points
Question How long is severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA detected in children, and are children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) identifiable by symptoms?
Findings In this case series of 91 children with COVID-19 in Korea, 22.0% were asymptomatic. Only 8.5% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed at the time of symptom onset, while 66.2% had unrecognized symptoms before diagnosis and 25.4% developed symptoms after diagnosis; SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected for a mean of 17.6 days overall and 14.1 days in asymptomatic cases.
Meaning Symptom screening fails to identify most COVID-19 cases in children, and SARS-CoV-2 RNA in children is detected for an unexpectedly long time.
August 28, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,086,355)
Deaths ( 185,692)
Our “law is what I say it is, and order is how I demand it to be” president I can only cringe at, making nonsense of speech. If there is a debate, and I don’t know why anyone would want to listen to the endless lies, I hope Biden wouldn’t be afraid to address him as liar with every response.
August 28, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,096,235)
Deaths ( 185,901)
India
Cases ( 3,461,240)
Deaths ( 62,713)
Mexico
Cases ( 579,914)
Deaths ( 62,594)
UK
Cases ( 331,644)
Deaths ( 41,486)
France
Cases ( 267,077)
Deaths ( 30,596)
Germany
Cases ( 242,114)
Deaths ( 9,360)
Canada
Cases ( 127,358)
Deaths ( 9,108)
China
Cases ( 85,013)
Deaths ( 4,634)
August 28, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 611)
US ( 561)
Mexico ( 485)
France ( 469)
Canada ( 241)
Germany ( 112)
India ( 45)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.5%, 11.5% and 10.8% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-29/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TldFLieI36/index.html
August 29, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 9 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 9 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, all from overseas, Chinese health authorities said on Saturday. This is the 13th consecutive day that the mainland has reported no domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Thursday, while 35 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,022 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 351 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-29/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TldFLieI36/img/1de8ce0e841349d18bdf41d7d517fabd/1de8ce0e841349d18bdf41d7d517fabd.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-29/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TldFLieI36/img/1b67ce0f7a164e54a47bb98a85e1075d/1b67ce0f7a164e54a47bb98a85e1075d.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-29/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TldFLieI36/img/c3f37ae5ba914a36b7a79bb3add8b718/c3f37ae5ba914a36b7a79bb3add8b718.jpeg
There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.
Since June there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.
Covid, brought to you by Trump. Riots brought to you by Trump. Depression brought to you by Trump. Republicans are good for the economy the way depressions are good for the economy.
Eric377,
I’ve thought of this — but more money coming to one segment of the workforce is deducted from the other segment (in this case, lower 40 percentile from upper 60) doesn’t increase non-labor costs overall. That’s the best I can do from the theory angle anyway — haven’t really parsed the whole thing out.
Ultimate answer of course is that this is not going to affect union/employer negotiations who will only be concerned with what’s in front of them. If inflation results, then, of course time to negotiate inflation adjustments. “The market” will sort it all out.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/Covid-obamacare-uninsured.html
August 29, 2020
Trump Program to Cover Uninsured Covid-19 Patients Falls Short of Promise
Some patients are still receiving staggering bills. Others don’t qualify because conditions other than Covid-19 were their primary diagnosis.
By Abby Goodnough
WASHINGTON — Marilyn Cortez, a retired cafeteria worker in Houston with no health insurance, spent much of July in the hospital with Covid-19. When she finally returned home, she received a $36,000 bill that compounded the stress of her illness.
Then someone from the hospital, Houston Methodist, called and told her not to worry — President Trump had paid it.
But then another bill arrived, for twice as much.
Ms. Cortez’s care is supposed to be covered under a program Mr. Trump announced this spring as the coronavirus pandemic was taking hold — a time when millions of people were losing their health insurance and the administration was doubling down on trying to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, the law that had expanded coverage to more than 20 million people.
“This should alleviate any concern uninsured Americans may have about seeking the coronavirus treatment,” Mr. Trump said in April about the program, which is supposed to cover testing and treatment for uninsured people with Covid-19, using money from the federal coronavirus relief package passed by Congress.
The program has drawn little attention since, but a review by The New York Times of payments made through it, as well as interviews with hospital executives, patients and health policy researchers who have examined the payments, suggest the quickly concocted plan has not lived up to its promise. It has caused confusion at participating hospitals, which in some cases have mistakenly billed patients like Ms. Cortez who should be covered by it. Few patients seem to know the program exists, so they don’t question the charges. And some hospitals and other medical providers have chosen not to participate in the program, which bars them from seeking any payment from patients whose bills they submit to it.
Large numbers of patients have also been disqualified because Covid-19 has to be the primary diagnosis for a case to be covered (unless the patient is pregnant). Since hospitalized Covid patients often have other serious medical conditions, many have other primary diagnoses. At Jackson Health in Miami, for example, only 60 percent of uninsured Covid-19 patients had decisively met the requirements to have their charges covered under the program as of late July, a spokeswoman said….
August 29, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,103,398)
Deaths ( 186,167)
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Trump’s “quickly concocted” plan to help with Covid-19 bills has been a flop 1/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/Covid-obamacare-uninsured.html
Trump Program to Cover Uninsured Covid-19 Patients Falls Short of Promise
Some patients are still receiving staggering bills. Others don’t qualify because conditions other than Covid-19 were their primary diagnosis.
7:32 AM · Aug 29, 2020
His payroll tax cut/not a tax cut looks so bad that it’s hard to imagine many employers implementing it 2/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/08/28/trump-payroll-tax-irs/
Trump’s push to defer payroll taxes could lead to smaller paychecks for workers in early 2021, Treasury signals
New guidance from Treasury and IRS raise questions about White House assertion that the taxes will be wiped clean
Millions of workers could see smaller paychecks in the first few months of 2021 after the Treasury Department on Friday told employers they would be on the hook for the payroll taxes deferred under President Trump’s recent order.
It’s almost as if there’s a pattern here 3/
August 29, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,106,665)
Deaths ( 186,255)
August 29, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,111,496)
Deaths ( 186,291)
Anne,
Can you also list people…
[ Nihilism is of no interest to me, and meanness is annoying. Leave me alone. ]
https://cepr.net/new-york-times-reports-that-0-01-percent-of-the-paycheck-protection-program-was-fraudulently-spent/
August 29, 2020
New York Times Reports that 0.01 Percent of the Paycheck Protection Program was Fraudulently Spent
By Dean Baker
Yep, that’s its big story * for the day, although people probably saw the number $62 million in the headline. The program spent a total of $525 billion to keep small businesses alive and workers being paid in the period where the economy was largely shut down. It was a rushed program that was completely improvised, since nothing had ever been done like this before.
It was inevitable that there would be some fraud, since the safeguards were obviously far from perfect. In fact, we can be sure that the $62 million uncovered by the Justice Department to date is just the tip of the iceberg. However, rather than implying to readers that this figure is evidence of widespread fraud, it actually is the opposite. It is a very small amount of fraud given the size of the program and the rush to get money out the door. Even if the final tally for fraud ends up being one hundred times this amount, it would be pretty good for a huge program that was put together from scratch.
* https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/28/business/ppp-small-business-fraud-coronavirus.html
August 29, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,118,586)
Deaths ( 186,532)
August 29, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 113,337)
Deaths ( 906)
Deaths per million ( 99)
———————————–
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)
Deaths per million ( 36)
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 113,337 cases in the small country as compared to 85,022 through all of mainland China.
August 29, 2020
Coronavirus
Dominican Republic
Cases ( 93,732)
Deaths ( 1,673)
Deaths per million ( 154)
Cuba
Cases ( 3,925)
Deaths ( 94)
Deaths per million ( 8)
The Dominican Republic has been the fastest growing country in GDP per capita in the Western Hemisphere since 1971. Cuba has been continually sanctioned economically by the US through these years, however Cuba has a far superior healthcare system as reflected now in the coronavirus experience of the countries and for years past in a range of critical healthcare experiences from infant mortality to life expectancy.
August 29, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,126,026)
Deaths ( 186,701)
Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan
Year 2018 (the latest @lisdata for the United States) was pretty good. US mean per capita income (from household surveys) increased by almost 8% in nominal terms; * even more than per capita consumption from national accounts (5.5%) or GDPpc (4.5%).
* 2018 inflation was 2.4%
[ https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Egnaq2oWsAg90kr?format=jpg&name=small ]
4:51 PM · Aug 29, 2020
At the same time US income inequality, measured by market income (=income before social transfers and direct taxes) or disposable income (=after direct taxes & transfers) Ginis was remarkably stable. So stable in fact, that the graph is super boring.
[ https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgnbHtZWoAAqRVa?format=jpg&name=small ]
August 29, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,139,078)
Deaths ( 186,855)
India
Cases ( 3,539,712)
Deaths ( 63,657)
Mexico
Cases ( 585,738)
Deaths ( 63,146)
UK
Cases ( 332,752)
Deaths ( 41,498)
France
Cases ( 272,530)
Deaths ( 30,602)
Germany
Cases ( 242,825)
Deaths ( 9,363)
Canada
Cases ( 127,673)
Deaths ( 9,113)
China
Cases ( 85,022)
Deaths ( 4,634)
August 29, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 611)
US ( 564)
Mexico ( 485)
France ( 469)
Canada ( 241)
Germany ( 112)
India ( 46)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.5%, 11.2% and 10.8% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TmSBPxBgRy/index.html
August 30, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 9 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 9 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, all from overseas, Chinese health authorities said on Sunday. This is the 14th consecutive day that the mainland has reported no domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Saturday, while 27 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,031 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 338 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TmSBPxBgRy/img/21893ea0f8bd4b19800ab822e0b4694a/21893ea0f8bd4b19800ab822e0b4694a.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TmSBPxBgRy/img/c6ea96c13ab84c32adcab109b1f081a2/c6ea96c13ab84c32adcab109b1f081a2.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TmSBPxBgRy/img/0bb7039157b74bdfa0f7dbb9e5b855ea/0bb7039157b74bdfa0f7dbb9e5b855ea.jpeg
(In other news…)
Phoenix Settles With Black Family After Police Drew Guns Over Reported Doll Theft
NY Times – August 29
The city of Phoenix has reached a settlement with a Black family for more than $470,000 after a widely viewed video last year showed police officers drawing their weapons and shouting expletives at the family while responding to a shoplifting complaint.
No charges were filed in connection with the episode and at least one officer was fired.
Members of the City Council voted 6 to 2 on Wednesday to approve the settlement for the two people involved in the episode, Dravon Ames and Iesha Harper.
A notice of claim that their lawyer sent to the city said the officers violated their civil rights and engaged in brutality during the episode.
“I just want to say, I’m glad we got justice,” Ms. Harper said at a news conference, The Associated Press reported. “It’s been hell dealing with my kids and everything that happened.”
Their lawyer, Thomas C. Horne, a former Arizona state attorney general, said last year that the officers’ actions had been “traumatic and utterly unjustified.”
Although Mr. Horne said the overall settlement was for $500,000, the city said in a statement on Saturday that the award was for $475,000.
“The settlement is to compensate Ms. Harper and her two children for injuries they may have suffered as a result of a Police Department call for service,” the statement said. A majority of the payment will go into a structured settlement for the children, it said.
The episode drew widespread attention as police encounters with civilians have faced heightened scrutiny, which is increasingly augmented by videos captured by bystanders on cellphones or by officers’ body cameras.
The settlement comes as racial unrest has been amplified nationwide after the shooting of Jacob Blake in Wisconsin and the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. It’s one of the latest settlements in claims of excessive-force or wrongful death that have cost the city millions, The Arizona Republic reported.
The Phoenix Police Department has said the episode, which happened in May 2019, began after a Family Dollar store manager alerted an officer to a possible shoplifting and said that those being sought were getting into a car.
The notice of claim said that Mr. Ames and Ms. Harper had not realized until they were back at their car that their 4-year-old daughter had walked out of the store with a doll. …
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-29/Four-Chinese-COVID-19-vaccines-undergoing-phase-3-clinical-trials-TlfVjaYUSI/index.html
August 29, 2020
Four Chinese COVID-19 vaccines undergoing phase-3 clinical trials
Four Chinese COVID-19 vaccine candidates have started international phase-3 clinical trials, according to the State Council joint prevention and control mechanism against COVID-19.
Some of the phase-3 trials are expected to complete the first round of vaccinations in early September, with preliminary data expected as early as November.
Phase-3 clinical trial usually involves thousands of people to verify the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines, which is the key to their market approval.
As the epidemic has been under control in China, the country no longer has conditions for large-scale clinical trials, so all the phase-3 trials are being carried out overseas.
Two inactivated COVID-19 vaccines developed by the China National Biotec Group (CNBG) have been approved for phase-3 clinical trials in several countries in the Middle East and South America, involving more than 30,000 people, according to Yang Xiaoming, president of the CNBG.
An inactivated COVID-19 vaccine developed by Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd. is undergoing phase-3 clinical trials in some countries in South America and Southeast Asia, according to Yin Weidong, chairman and CEO of Sinovac.
A recombinant COVID-19 vaccine with the modified defective adenovirus as the vector is also undergoing phase-3 trials.
According to a guideline for the clinical evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines recently released by the National Medical Products Administration, the vaccine should provide immunity for at least six months, preferably for more than a year.
August 30, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,149,558)
Deaths ( 186,957)
August 30, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,154,867)
Deaths ( 187,015)
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
This is an interesting piece. But I’d say it implicitly gives Mnuchin far too much credit for the economic rescue of March, and also doesn’t give the right take on who he is — the last oblivious but probably not fascist right-winger on the Trump team 1/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/business/steven-mnuchin-trump-economy.html
Steven Mnuchin Tried to Save the Economy. Not Even His Family Is Happy.
The coronavirus was an opportunity for the Treasury secretary to redefine his legacy, for better or worse.
11:56 AM · Aug 30, 2020
So, about that rescue: two crucial things kept the U.S. economy from going into total meltdown this spring. One was the Fed’s extremely aggressive intervention to stabilize financial markets, which was basically Jerome Powell, not anyone in the Trump team 2/
The other was the CARES Act, which contained a bunch of stuff. All indications, however, are that the really crucial element was that $600 a week supplement to unemployment benefits. Those $1200 checks appear to mostly have been saved; it was UI that provided the stimulus 3/
And the $600 was, of course, a Democratic idea, which most Republicans hated. Mnuchin gets some credit for helping sell Trump on letting it get enacted anyway. But it’s really Pelosi/Schumer policy 4/
So, where does Mnuchin fit? The Trump administration initially included a fair number of right-wingers with some independent status, who somehow didn’t fully take on the nature of what they were joining. Gary Cohn; Rex Tillerson; in a different way, James Mattis 5/
They’re all gone now, either fired or having left because they finally saw what was in front of their noses. Mnuchin is still there. I don’t know whether he is just oblivious to who he’s serving, or totally amoral — not mutually exclusive categories 6/
And for whatever reason, Trump hasn’t replaced him with a personality-cult loyalist, which has turned Mnuchin into the relative voice of reason — not because he’s smart, or even reasonable, but because look at who we’re comparing him to 7/
And for what it’s worth, whatever moderating influence he may have exerted is hard to see now, with benefits cut off and the admin’s main policy idea — payroll tax deferment — looking like a sick joke 8/
Or to put it differently, in an administration that includes Barr and Pompeo, where Kushner is treated as a universal expert, Mnuchin doesn’t look so bad. But in a normal administration he would look terrible 9/
As Sam Bell points out, Ron Wyden is most directly responsible for the $600 a week. Party leaders backed him, but credit where due 10/
https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2020/03/in-once-in-a-lifetime-crisis-wyden-accomplishes-goal-of-expanding-unemployment-insurance.html
March 28, 2020
In ‘once-in-a-lifetime crisis,’ Sen. Ron Wyden accomplishes goal of expanding unemployment insurance
August 30, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,162,026)
Deaths ( 187,083)
[ We have a severe institutional failing of our healthcare system reflected in the data on the coronavirus, and this institutional failing needs to be carefully analyzed and the system reformed, but as yet I find no interest in the matter. ]
August 30, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,167,102)
Deaths ( 187,178)
[ Reflecting an American institutional failure. ]
August 30, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 114,020)
Deaths ( 919)
Deaths per million ( 100)
———————————–
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)
Deaths per million ( 36)
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 114,020 cases in the small country as compared to 85,031 through all of mainland China.
August 30, 2020
Coronavirus
Dominican Republic
Cases ( 94,241)
Deaths ( 1,681)
Deaths per million ( 155)
Cuba
Cases ( 3,973)
Deaths ( 94)
Deaths per million ( 8)
While the Dominican Republic has been the fastest growing country in Gross Domestic Product per capita in the Western Hemisphere since 1971, Cuba has been continually sanctioned economically by the United States through these years. However Cuba has a far superior healthcare system as reflected now in the coronavirus experience of the countries and for years past in a range of critical healthcare experiences from infant mortality to life expectancy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/climate/oil-kenya-africa-plastics-trade.html
August 30, 2020
Big Oil Is in Trouble. Its Plan: Flood Africa With Plastic.
Faced with plunging profits and a climate crisis that threatens fossil fuels, the industry is demanding a trade deal that weakens Kenya’s rules on plastics and on imports of American trash.
By Hiroko Tabuchi, Michael Corkery and Carlos Mureithi
Confronting a climate crisis that threatens the fossil fuel industry, oil companies are racing to make more plastic. But they face two problems: Many markets are already awash with plastic, and few countries are willing to be dumping grounds for the world’s plastic waste.
The industry thinks it has found a solution to both problems in Africa.
According to documents reviewed by The New York Times, an industry group representing the world’s largest chemical makers and fossil fuel companies is lobbying to influence United States trade negotiations with Kenya, one of Africa’s biggest economies, to reverse its strict limits on plastics — including a tough plastic-bag ban. It is also pressing for Kenya to continue importing foreign plastic garbage, a practice it has pledged to limit….
[ Maniacal viciousness, maniacal prejudice. As though we are intent on waging Opium Wars on Africa. ]
And many countries in Africa are banning plastic bags because elephants are dying from eating them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/climate/oil-kenya-africa-plastics-trade.html
August 30, 2020
Big Oil Is in Trouble. Its Plan: Flood Africa With Plastic.
Faced with plunging profits and a climate crisis that threatens fossil fuels, the industry is demanding a trade deal that weakens Kenya’s rules on plastics and on imports of American trash.
By Hiroko Tabuchi, Michael Corkery and Carlos Mureithi
[ Lawrence Summers in 1991, famously suggested from the desk of the World Bank that “dirty industries” be moved to Africa. * So why should I be surprised now?
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summers_memo ]
August 30, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,156,859)
Deaths ( 187,026)
India
Cases ( 3,613,922)
Deaths ( 64,547)
Mexico
Cases ( 591,712)
Deaths ( 63,819)
UK
Cases ( 334,467)
Deaths ( 41,499)
France
Cases ( 277,943)
Deaths ( 30,606)
Germany
Cases ( 243,016)
Deaths ( 9,363)
Canada
Cases ( 127,909)
Deaths ( 9,117)
China
Cases ( 85,031)
Deaths ( 4,634)
August 30, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 611)
US ( 565)
Mexico ( 494)
France ( 469)
Canada ( 241)
Germany ( 112)
India ( 47)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 12.4%, 11.0% and 10.8% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-31/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-ToxPyLsSWc/index.html
August 31, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 17 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
The Chinese mainland registered 17 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, all from overseas, Chinese health authorities said on Monday. This is the 15th consecutive day that the mainland has reported no domestic transmissions.
No deaths linked to the coronavirus disease were recorded on Sunday, while 24 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,048 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 340 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TmSBPxBgRy/img/21893ea0f8bd4b19800ab822e0b4694a/21893ea0f8bd4b19800ab822e0b4694a.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-31/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-ToxPyLsSWc/img/e161b94abd294e0fb7a9102730f39438/e161b94abd294e0fb7a9102730f39438.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TmSBPxBgRy/img/0bb7039157b74bdfa0f7dbb9e5b855ea/0bb7039157b74bdfa0f7dbb9e5b855ea.jpeg
What strikes me as sure, is that the experience we have had with the spread of coronavirus infections reflects an institutional problem with the system of American healthcare. However, to my continuing surprise, there seems to be almost interest in examining the system to implement changes. The problem is no individual direction, but a systemic failure, but where is there any interest?
anne:
This is going to result in one of those “I told you this was going to happen” moments sometime in the future when people and politicians with faux surprise or dawning realize how bad it was and still is. This morning’s news announces trumps new advisor Scott Atlas supports a herd immunity approach. As if the morgues are not filled now? If China can control it, why can’t the US? Perhaps because our fearless leader trump and other leaders are there for other reasons other than serving the people. New Trump pandemic adviser pushes controversial ‘herd immunity’ strategy
“Why hasn’t it worked in Sweden? ‘Experience suggests that severely infected COVID-19 patients acquire antibodies immediately and during early recovery, but antibodies are much less common in only mildly ill or asymptomatic patients. This means they are likely not immune, and can’t prevent the spread of the virus, the study noted. This is central to the concept of herd immunity.
In the other Scandinavian countries, rapid lockdown appeared more successful in stopping the spread of infection,’ Goldsmith said.
The findings are a cautionary tale for the world, and for the United Kingdom in particular,” https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity
Run:
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
The one strategy Trump never seems to have considered is that of taking the pandemic seriously and trying to save American lives
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-coronavirus-scott-atlas-herd-immunity/2020/08/30/925e68fe-e93b-11ea-970a-64c73a1c2392_story.html
New Trump pandemic adviser pushes controversial ‘herd immunity’ strategy, worrying public health officials
Scott Atlas has expanded his influence inside the White House by advocating policies that appeal to the president’s desire to move past the pandemic and get the economy going.
8:37 AM · Aug 31, 2020
August 31, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,180,197)
Deaths ( 187,365)
Scott Atlas, the pandemic adviser to the president, is neither an infectious disease specialist nor an epidemiologist. Atlas is a public health philosopher, essentially a libertarian who considers a lack of constraint is proper for dealing with an epidemic. Where the point of healthcare begins with doing no harm, a libertarian is willing that harm be done for the sake of individual freedom. Herd immunity in this epidemic is a libertarian rationale, no more.
August 31, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,183,259)
Deaths ( 187,373)
August 31, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,188,198)
Deaths ( 187,410)
August 31, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,194,854)
Deaths ( 187,507)
August 31, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 116,596)
Deaths ( 939)
Deaths per million ( 102)
———————————–
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)
Deaths per million ( 36)
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 116,596 cases in the small country as compared to 85,048 through all of mainland China.
August 31, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 6,200,056)
Deaths ( 187,558)