Trump’s handling of the economy
Robert Kuttner on public approval of Trump’s handing of the economy:
As general support for Trump keeps sinking, there is one anomaly. According to this July 15 Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, which finds Biden leading Trump by 11 points, fully 54 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Really? That would be the corona economy, the worst since the Great Depression, thanks substantially to Trump’s catastrophic policies. How can this possibly be?
I put the question to some leading pollsters and strategists. One person whom I greatly respect told me that in focus groups several people volunteered that they credited Trump personally for the supplemental unemployment checks and one-time $1,200 relief payments because his name was on the checks.
I suspect there is more going on here than Trump’s name on checks. Part of what is going on is issue ownership. Voters tend to trust Republicans more on the economy than Democrats. This seems to be true even on budget deficits (seriously). You can scan through some old polling data here. Why this is the case is not entirely clear; perhaps it is because business is generally a Republican constituency and people equate the economy with business. Another factor is likely Trump’s carefully crafted reputation as a “successful” “businessman”. Voters tend to trust business people; they want government to be run more like a business, etc. Remember Ross Perot.
Of course, these factors will only take Trump so far; his ratings on the economy are slipping along with his overall approval:
As recently as last month, even as Mr. Biden led the presidential race, a majority of voters said they trusted Mr. Trump more on economic matters. But a poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University showed Mr. Biden edging ahead on that question, 50 percent to 45 percent. Quinnipiac found that 53 percent of registered voters disapproved of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy, and polls from CNBC and the Democratic firm Navigator Research found similar disapproval numbers.
Unemployment is high, 137K have died in the past four months from the virus, yet the stock market is @ almost $27K. What’s wrong with this picture?
Something happened on the road to globalization.
The GOPers have spent 70 years positioning their party as the “business” party and as the “fiscally responsible” one.
These polls show that they have been effective.
Now, their latest message is: “electing Democrats is first step down the path to Venezuela”.
Some people, many people, believe this bullshit.
July 18, 2020
U.S. GDP in Q2 to contract by annualized rate of 37 pct: IMF staff
“The economic costs of the crisis are being borne disproportionately by the poor and vulnerable, bringing into stark relief deep inequities that have long afflicted the U.S.,” say the IMF staff.
WASHINGTON — U.S. output is expected to contract by an annualized rate of 37 percent in the second quarter and by 6.6 percent for 2020 as a whole, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff said on Friday, * after concluding an annual Article IV review of the U.S. economy.
The longest economic expansion in U.S. history has been derailed by the unanticipated advent of COVID-19, with the poorest households facing “particularly precarious prospects,” according to the concluding statement, which describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit.
“The economic costs of the crisis are being borne disproportionately by the poor and vulnerable, bringing into stark relief deep inequities that have long afflicted the U.S.,” the IMF staff said.
“The pandemic has also underscored some of the structural shortcomings of the U.S. health system whereby the provision of healthcare is fragmented, decentralized, predominantly employer-based, at high cost, and with a significant share of low-income households lacking coverage,” they continued.
January 30, 2020
January 15, 2020
Weekly Economic Index, * 2020
The WEI is an index of real economic activity using timely and relevant high-frequency data. It represents the common component of ten different daily and weekly series covering consumer behavior, the
labor market, and production. The WEI is scaled to the four-quarter GDP growth rate; for example, if the WEI reads -2 percent and the current level of the WEI persists for an entire quarter, one would
expect, on average, GDP that quarter to be 2 percent lower than a year previously.
lol, debt based ponzi’s ponzi. The rentier’s on wall street and retail investors are the problem. That is why its time to liquidate. Let the “free market” reign and withdrawal government support to the economy. It will collapse like a rock. The economy is all Bernie Madoff now.
The industrial revolution/science gave people the impression capitalism worked with little government support………….it was just the absolute number of new products merchants were peddling with this science that kept it going on. 1929 was the end game of that. The low hanging fruit is gone.
Ah, I can see it now. Supply lines at Wal Mart. Food shortages, ……….even the 1976 Soviet Union would grimace.
“path to Venezuela”
lol, if oil was 150-200, Venezuela would be the place to be. Anybody that believes that Venezuela sheet is a
mentally retardedsilly citizen. Who shouldn’t be able to vote.
“I put the question to some leading pollsters and strategists. One person whom I greatly respect told me that in focus groups several people volunteered that they credited Trump personally for the supplemental unemployment checks and one-time $1,200 relief payments because his name was on the checks.
We all laughed when Trump made this happen. Well, the man may be certifiably insane in several respects, but he is also crazy like a fox.
And his desire to get vivid relief to ordinary working people is also behind Trump’s demand for a suspension of Social Security payroll taxes. (Let’s see if he tries to get his name on the rebates.)
Needless to say, the fact that folks fall for this ploy does not exactly speak well of the American people. As H.L. Mencken famously observed, no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public. (The actual quote was somewhat more convoluted, but you get the idea.)
All of this reminds me of a remarkable book written in 1857, which I know about only thanks to Sidney Blumenthal’s superb new work on the run-up to the Civil War, All the Powers of Earth. The earlier book, The Impending Crisis of the South, by the abolitionist Hinton Rowan Helper, was the first to make the point that poor, non-slaveholding whites, outnumbering slaveholders by more than five to one, were victimized by slavery almost as much as Blacks. “Never were the poorer classes of a people,” Helper wrote, “so basely duped, so adroitly swindled …”
Does this ring a distant bell? The duped poor whites of slavery days, who supported wealthy slaveholders because downtrodden whites at least felt superior to Blacks, were the direct ancestors of those duped souls who believe today that Black lives don’t matter, and who support Trump’s economic leadership because his name is on relief checks.
Jesus wept! God save this Republic.”
“Unemployment is high, 137K have died in the past four months from the virus, yet the stock market is @ almost $27K. What’s wrong with this picture?”
Since the end of last year…
This seems to be a ‘flight
to (perceived) quality’ on
the NASDAQ, while the
Dow has declined. (The
‘big 4’ are NASDAQ listed.)
Name on the checks.
Only a solid trumpist could possibly say this mattered to them.
If the shoe fits:
I can but recommend the documentary ‘Capitalism in the Twenty-First Century” based on Piketty’ book of the same name. If you’ve access to Kanopy, you can stream it.
For the past forty years, the rule has been, when there is nothing to invest in, buy stocks. I retired comfortably on that almost thirty years ago. In the 1950s and 1960s, business magazines published regional income statistics to help businesses direct investment. By the 1970s, that was gone. Business was on another track and most Americans disengaged from the “economy” by the 1980s.
The Republicans have worked hard to be seen as the party of business, but as anyone looking at the numbers could tell, the blue states with anti-business economies were economically better off for both businesses and consumers. As any scam artist, pick pocket or prestidigitator could tell you, what you say to people overrides what they experience. If you rob them blind and tell them you are making them rich, they’ll swear their empty wallet has more money in it than before they were robbed.
Paul Ryan weighs in.
Republicans Start to Break Ranks
NY Times – July 19
Mr. Trump’s political standing is now so dire that even Republicans who have spent years avoiding direct comment on his behavior are acknowledging his unpopularity in plain terms. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan, for instance, offered a bleak assessment of Mr. Trump’s electoral standing at a recent event hosted by Solamere, a company with close ties to Senator Mitt Romney, Republican of Utah, and his family.
According to a partial transcript of the comments, shared by a person close to him, the usually tight-lipped Mr. Ryan said Mr. Trump was losing key voting blocs across the Midwest and in Arizona, a Republican-leaning state that Mr. Ryan described as “presently trending against us.”
While Mr. Ryan did not criticize Mr. Trump’s handling of the outbreak, he said the president could not win re-election this year if he continued losing badly to Mr. Biden among suburban voters who were wary of both candidates but currently favor Mr. Biden.
“Biden is winning over Trump in this category of voters 70 to 30,” Mr. Ryan said, “and if that sticks, he cannot win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.” …
Former House Speaker Paul Ryan says Trump is on track to get crushed in the suburbs and the Upper Midwest
Former Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan privately said that President Donald Trump was on course to lose badly in suburbs and the Upper Midwestern states he narrowly carried in 2016, The New York Times reported on Sunday.
The Times said that Ryan, who represented Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District for two decades and served as the speaker from 2015 to 2019, sounded the alarm about Trump’s dire reelection prospects at a private event held by Solamere Capital, a private-equity firm cofounded by Sen. Mitt Romney’s son Tagg Romney.
Ryan reportedly pointed to Trump’s increasingly poor standing among voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan — three states Trump won by margins of less than 1 percentage point each in 2016 — and former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead among suburban voters who dislike both candidates. While Trump carried those kinds of voters in 2016, polls have indicated that Biden is leading them this time around.
“Biden is winning over Trump in this category of voters 70 to 30,” Ryan said, according to a transcript of his comments obtained by The Times. “And if that sticks, he cannot win states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.” …