The Philly Fed state-by-state diffusion index of economic expansion This comes from the Philly Fed’s state-by-state coincident index, via Bill McBride. The graph below shows the number of states showing increasing economic activity: In December the number of states in expansion was 39. Historically over the past 40 years, that number dropping to 35 or […]
Live-blogging Congressional power to ensure fair federal elections: January 28, 1869 As I described in my earlier post today, the power of Congress to determine the manner in which Congressional elections are to be conducted, including power over the districting process, came up in a speech by Rep. Stewart on January 28, 1869. Since this […]
In a previous post, I argued that rising incomes and increasingly liberal attitudes may move opinion and policy in a progressive direction in the United States. However, the Democratic victory in the 2018 election did not signal the start of a progressive “revolution”; it mostly reflected a predictable reaction to the unpopular policies of Trump […]
Stolen from the comments section. Will Romney pay the price? I do not think so. He may get critiqued by the madman in the White House; but, I am not so sure if he can touch Romney. By EMichael Credit where credit is due. Despite the fact that he faces almost no repercussions for his […]
Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: January 28, 1869 Note: I have fallen a little behind, due to traveling. My apologies! I am making a concerted effort to catch up. Today’s installment is particularly important on the issue of gerrymandering. On January 28, Rep. Charles Stewart, a Republican from New York, spoke with reference to the proposed […]
by New Deal democrat The long leading forecast up to 12 months Last week I posted my short term forecast through midyear. This morning my long term forecast through the 2nd half of 2020 was also posted at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking through and reading will help you see the longer term trends, and also […]
Will The “Impeachment Charade Fade Quickly”? We have not yet had all the final speechifying where GOP senators attempt to justify their votes to make this the first US federal impeachment trial in history (there have been 15, mostly of judges) not to have any witnesses, as well as the foregone acquittal. But the battle […]
December 2019 real personal income and spending Real personal income and spending are both coincident indicators. They don’t tell us where the economy is going, but they do give us a snapshot of how ordinary Americans are doing. In December, real income declined by less than -0.1%. Real spending rose by less than +0.1%: Figure […]