An update on forecasts
by New Deal democrat
An update on forecasts
I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, describing the order in which data has tended to deteriorate before consumer-led recessions. A few conditions have been met; most others have not.
I have previously written that if a recession is in the works over the next few quarters, it is more likely to be a producer-led recession, a la 2001. In that regard, a few weeks ago I said that Q2 corporate profits would be a crucial report.
Well, they were reported a couple of weeks ago. I hadn’t linked to that article before, but that too was posted at Seeking Alpha.
The bottom line is that both the nowcast and the long-term 12+ month forecast are reasonably clear. The short term, 3 – 9 month forecast, is a lot dicier, and depends greatly on whether Tariff Man can resist the impulse to keep adding on de facto tax increases on American producers and consumers.
As usual, clicking over to SA and reading the posts should be educational for you, and helps reward me with a little $$$ for the effort I put
Does anyone care that for the last 3 months the core CPI rose 0.3% each month.
That is a 3.6% annual rate.
Spencer:
Damn, I care. If that was monthly we would be in serious trouble. As I look at the BLS numbers, I see the .3% was for July and August was .1%. Yes? All items was 1.7% and less energy and food, 2.4% 12 months unadjusted. Am I reading this correctly? https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – AUGUST 2019
We are doing fine and I think your analysis proves that. I know Krugman says worry not on floating debt to fund the deficit spending. We are at what I would think is an impasse where we have low taxes, Yuge spending deficit, and bond yields in the toilet. Increasing supply of a debt instrument at such low rates does not fire up demand for those assets, so the more deficit money print, the less they are going to be able to sell it to the market. I don’t think the government will go bankrupt, but I think this will limit economic growth.