The slowdown cometh
by New Deal democrat
The slowdown cometh
I submitted a long post on the above to Seeking Alpha. They haven’t put it up yet. When they do, I’ll link to it here. UPDATE: Here’s the link.
Long story short: you all know that a year ago I forecast a slowdown by about mid-year this year. Everything except for portions of GDP and jobs has acted in accordance with that forecast.
And, judging by this morning’s ADP jobs report for May:
the official jobs report may finally follow suit this Friday
Let in 100K legal immigrants per month for the next year and watch the jobs numbers improve.
Dave, for what end? What happens as growth stops? Immigration is irrelevant. We are at the saturation point and debt expansion since 1945 has basically created a monster that will die at some point.
What we need is global depopulation and rationing of resources on earth while we push into space.
Bert:
Immigration is relevant. As younger people come to the US, we maintain a lower median age which is important to US productivity since legitimate (as Trump would label them) are not reproducing in numbers adequate enough to maintain an adequate replacement rate. Italy and Spain were at 1.3, Hong Kong and Macau were at .96 and .84, Russia has dropped to less than replacement rate as well as China. It makes sense to have immigration even if they are not white. A brief read is Joel Garreau’s “300 million and Counting” from 2006.
If we raise the standard of living, the need for births beyond replacement go away.
Run beg to disagree. Education is more important for productivity than age. There are still plenty of people in the world. Immigration has other uses than economic uses. We still need it, but the rate needs to be managed – how you do tthat and maintain political liberalism is a difficult question.