Understanding the simple strategy for the 2018 elections
Understanding the simple strategy for the 2018 elections
Pretend for a moment that you are a political strategist. Your party is the party in power. The opposition has been enraged since the moment of your standard-bearer’s election. In the special and off-year elections since, they have been showing up in unprecedented droves for offices up and down the ticket, from Governor and US Senator to state representative and local council.
The mid-term election is bearing down, and you know very well that midterm elections are fundamentally referendums on how the party in power is doing. The odds look overwhelming that the opposition turnout tsunami, at least, is likely to continue.
As a strategist, what of the following courses of action do you recommend?
(a) make soothing noises, hoping that the anger of the opposition is mollified enough that your candidates squeak through
(b) engage in searingly divisive behavior that will rile up your base
(c) get rip-roaring drunk and hide under a table curled up in a fetal position until it’s over, so that you don’t remember anything
Whether or not you choose to do (c), it’s pretty obvious that (b) is the correct answer, isn’t it?
Opposition supporters already hate your with the heat of 1000 suns. So what if you repeatedly do such cruel and outrageous things that they become incandescent with rage. They’re going to turn up anyway, regardless of what you do.
Since the opposition is going to turn out in droves, your best option is to get your base to turn out in droves as well. You don’t do that by disappointing your base, or putting them to sleep (Cf. Obama, 2010). Here’s Rasmussen’s poll of “strong approval vs. strong disapproval” from that time:
Note how enervated Obama’s base was, with only about 27% +/-2% during that time.
No, you do that by getting your base incandescent with rage as well. You want to pick the bloodiest fights you can, so that your base feels they need to show up and support you and your allies, lest their enemies prevail. Here’s Rasmussen’s equivalent poll for Trump right now:
Note that the level of strong disapproval is about the same as for Obama, but the level of strong approval has been inching up, and is currently at about 33% +/-2%.
Once you understand this simple strategy, all of the horrible things that have been done by Trump and the GOP in the last few months make perfect sense. The more mean, cruel, divisive, bloody fights that are boiling over this November, the more the GOP base will turn up. Since the Democrats’ base is going to turn up anyway, this gives you your best chance to preserve your majorities.
Trudeau hits the nail on the head with this week’s Doonesbury.
http://doonesbury.washingtonpost.com/
Does not matter what their opinion is on healthcare, consumer protection, the environment, inequality or corporate influence, they will never, ever change their votes.
http://doonesbury.washingtonpost.com/strip/archive/2018/7/8
Not sure about the link EMichael, but I do question the first half of the notion that the opposition is going to be engaged in November. I sense a high level of fatigue setting in and I see little evidence that two of the strongest demographics will turn out–young people and African Americans. I even question whether non GOP suburban women will vote. In my current hometown there were two related news articles–Planned Parenthood was driven out of town after 98 years leaving thousands of women without adequate health care and an activist woman in Iran was sentenced to 20 years in prison for removing her hajib. I am guessing less than 5% of the population saw that the stories were related.
Doonesbury has been at the front of US politics and life for decades. The young progressive politician finds tow people in total agreement with her positions, but then learns they are voting rep.
You cannot win with those people, and it is a total wast of time to try.
Meanwhile, I am not sure you can compare trump and obama’s ratings without taking large account of the great recession.
For whatever reason, I got linked to a 1990 era cartoon. The only way Dems win is by turning out their base and getting most of the open minded “”independents”. I think they will do well with the open minded independents, but I question the continued energy of their base, particularly when their best argument is that they will resist Trump more than the GOP.
If you say Dem voting independents, I agree.
There ae very, very few open minded independents if by that you mean independents that change their votes regardless of party. Insignificant numbers and the pursuit of which by Dems has been a disaster.
EMichael, as we’ve discussed before, 10% of 1/3d of the electorate is ignored at one’s peril.
For every Inside-the-Beltway “Never Trump” Republican there are probably 10,000 of us “Never Hillary,” “Never Pelosi, Never Schumer, “Never Maxine Walters” former Democrats out there who have given up on that hopelessly corrupt party, perhaps forever. THAT is the Democrats real problem.
Karl:
Go away. That is all your comment deserves.
Here here Run75441, Karl go away to some neo-Nazi echo chamber blog you are seeking. Here at Angry Bear we listen to intellectual arguments and not crude slogans like “crooked Hillary” or “Heil Hitler”
Niels:
Welcome to AB. All first comments go to moderation to weed out spammers and advertising. What do you wish of me, that the Hapsburgs did not exist? I know the history and I have been in country. I can argue my points.