Different data journalists have different estimates of the probability that Hillary Clinton will be elected. The numbers will be updates, so I type the current ones before discussing. Five Thirty Eight polls plus 55.7% Five Thirty Eight polls only 57.1 % Daily Kos 63% Upshot 75% Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) (random drift) 71% (Bayesian) […]
WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump Jr. has posted a message on Twitter likening Syrian refugees to a bowl of poisoned Skittles. Seeking to promote his father’s presidential campaign, the younger Trump posted a tweet featuring a bowl of the candy Skittles with a warning. “If I had a bowl of skittles and I told you […]
by Mike Kimel Negative Effects of Immigration on the Economy In a recent post, I showed that looking at data since 1950 or so, the percentage of the population that is foreign born is negatively correlated with job creation in later years. I promised an explanation, and I will attempt to deliver on that promise […]
The section on capital from Joan Robinson’s 1970 review of Charles Ferguson’s The Neoclassical Theory of Production and Distribution employs the “lump of leets” motif to highlight a key issue in the Cambridge critique of neoclassical capital theory. Robinson’s substantive lump-of-leets critique offers an instructive contrast to the abject flimsiness of the proverbial lump-of-labor fallacy claims. […]
I have argued many times (most directly here) that, contrary to the claims of nearly all Irish policymakers, low taxes are not what makes the Irish economy tick. The country experienced 30 years of low taxes with no gain on average European income; it was only after 1987 that other policy changes (education, EU-funded […]
I have posted this model of core inflation before. Core inflation on y-axis. Corporate-after-tax profit rate minus nominal rates on x-axis. The model implies that inflation depends upon the difference between an aggregate corporate profit rate and nominal rates. The more nominal rates cut into corporate profit rates, the more corporations would choose to raise […]
Hillary Clinton and her campaign of 2008 started the birther controversy. I finished it. I finished it, you know what I mean. President Barack Obama was born in the United States, period. Now we all want to get back to making America strong and great again. — Donald Trump, today I took that quote from […]
The Clinton campaign today made a key concession about its analysis of the fundamentals of the race. This concession was made almost in passing, as an afterthought, in a statement released late last night by Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri: “One upside to Hillary Clinton’s break from the trail was having time to sharpen the […]
Look, here is the actual check from the Trump Foundation (remember, all just an innocent mistake, heh-heh!), dated 9/9/13. Totally undercuts the idea that Trump bribed Bondi to head off an investigation, doesn’t it? [Photocopy of front and back of canceled check.] Except not so much. Even the Times acknowledges, this doesn’t absolutely clear up anything, since […]