People who are published in newspapers who don’t make proper use of published data
“Pundits are regularly outpredicted by people you’ve never heard of. Here’s how to change that.” is a very interesting article at the monkey cage by Sam Winter-Levy and Jacob Trefethen.
They note a study of people you’ve never heard of vs intelligence analysts (not pundits) and write
accountability. While many pundits may not see themselves as being in the business of making forecasts, implicit predictions underpin much of what they write. It seems strange then that we know more about the accuracy of the predictions of Bill Flack, a superforecaster and retired irrigation specialist from Nebraska, than we do about the predictions of Paul Krugman or Bret Stephens.
I don’t know who Bret Stephens is, but note that Winter-Levy and Jacob Trefethen decided to type “Paul Krugman” without mentioning any forecast made by Paul Krugman. They don’t discuss evaluation of the accuracy of Paul Krugman’s forecasts. I assert with great confidencethat they didn’t google Paul Krugman forecast accuracy. I am also sure that they didn’t google Paul Krubman forecast accuracy (as I did — I don’t type so good)
It may be true that we know more about the accuracy of Bill Flack’s forecasts than of Krugman’s but Krugman’s ability to forecast has been graded. The sample was small, forecasts made on TV, but Krugman didn’t make any incorrect forecasts.
This is publicly available information. google Krugman forecast accuracy and find
or if you don’t want to bother with a pdf the second hit
I think that you really must note this scrap of data in an article about evaluating forecast accuracy in which you chose to name Krugman. Are you aware of the study ? If so, why didn’t you mention it. If not what does that tell us about your ability to handle publicly available data ?
I think your article shows us something about the ability to deal with publicly available data of people who are published in newspapers (including yourselves) and people no one has heard of (including me).
I mean really, would it have been too hard to google ?
Interestingly, this isn’t yesterday’s only post at The Monkey Cage which includes the words Paul and Krugman. Nor is it one which suggests the most ignorance.
I think the staff of The Monkey Cage (including the editor equivalent if there is one) have to have a talk about the proper use of the word “Krugman” which includes two principles
1) watch out for Brad DeLong and his friends (or in other words Krugman’s acolytes and his acolytes’ acolytes)
2) Paul Krugman is right surprisingly often.
I am not joking at all.
Okay, I am not an economist and my grasp of the theories generally needs propping up by quick google searches (“What the hell was Ricardian, again?”) but a lot of the big predictions, or at least upcoming problems, are things I have seen the instant they reared over the horizon. I have never had a 401k, but as soon as I learned what they were, thought they looked pretty shaky. When the bankruptcy law regarding student loans was changed, when welfare was replaced by time-limited workfare, when housing costs were rising and incomes weren’t … Heck, when Walmart stopped pushing their goods as “proudly American,” these were all obvious drumbeats of doom. Sometimes, predictions are NOT hard … even about the future.
“I don’t know who Bret Stephens is”
“would it have been too hard to google ?”
not intentional irony
Amen to the post. People should research the facts of the subjects which they choose to write about. (Not knowing Bret Stephens is a fact that was not the subject of the post and anyway does not need to be googled to be verified – that is, I don’t know BS either, and don’t need to google BS to verify that I don’t know him. But I get the intended joke.)
I predict and I don’t care if you know me or Google me.We should all be supporting a work driven manufacturing based economy rather than the short term quick profit driven economy because this is where most innovation ,new wealth creation and labor productivity comes from. We also know that you cannot solve a problem with the very same people who created it. We all can see that so called “free market” capitalism is failing again in the international community where we all share in the losses but not in the profits and where “Free Trade” is a code word for one way trade. We were warned yesterday by the IMF and Trump’s buddy Carl Ican that the commodity mkt. and bond mkt. are collapsing in the past 5 months as a controlled “slow motion train wreck” that does not set off panic or fear. We are slowly slipping into a new recession so you need to read more of Wallstreetonparade.com to formulate your opinions more objectively .There is more to our economy than just short term wealth hoarding, differed interest, dividends, capital gains, mergers and acquisitions and stock buy back programs. China will devalue their currency soon again and raising the interest rate gain will not offset the losses as hoped. Last go see the book “The crash of 2016” from Tom Hartmann who points out that the pillars of democracy have been corrupted. or look at GeraldCelente.com for more real economic answers. We cannot have an economy of un livable wages that is productivity starved driven by the hoarders of Wall St. or the military-industrial complex or the insurance and health care industries.