The Big Marquette Law School Walker/Burke Poll Coincidence

The latest Marquette Law School poll shows Scott Walker with 47 percent of likely voters, and Mary Burke with 47 percent of likely voters. Despite the last Marquette poll showing Walker up five points, the new poll, along with the polling average, shows this is very much a race.

— Paul Waldman, the Washington Post, this evening

Ooookay.  I’ll just sorta suggest—as I did here last week—that the difference between the two polls is that, y’know, it’s hard to be considered a likely voter if you don’t have the photo ID that your state requires you to produce at the polling place.  (Okay, well, in my post last week, I was addressing the five-point change in Walker’s favor between the poll two weeks ago and the one two weeks before that one.  But the premise is the same.)

The poll released two weeks ago was taken shortly after the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals had allowed Wisconsin’s voter ID law to be enforced in the upcoming election.  The poll released today reflects … this.

Then again, that five-point swing one way and then the other within four weeks could be just a coincidence.  That’s it! It’s a coincidence.