Ask Mr Grammar Person
What is wrong with this sentence ?
Yes I write about grammar partly as a joke (I don’t joke about spelling — it is too painful). But I am serious. Matthew Yglesias draws a very definite conclusion in the italicized indicative from a claim in the subjunctive. It is always a mistake to say that something “is” true because something else “might” be true. This point is too elementary to be elementary logic.
I think I have something medium serious and almost worth reading on the corporate income tax after the jump.
I’ll get to economics soon, but I only now notice another grammar problem. “closing dividends” doesn’t actually mean anything. I honestly didn’t notice anything odd about the phrase when I read the post and decided to comment on grammar. I read it as meaning “taxing dividends as income, that is reversing the Bush 2003 tax reform under which qualified dividend income is taxed at a 15% rate.” Not only did “closing dividends” seem perfectly clear to me; I didn’t even notice the grammatical slip. This aside might be helpful to those of you who hope that I will ever competently proof read my posts — I can’t.
To be fair to Yglesias, I actually agree with his proposal to reduce taxes on re-invested corporate profits and increase taxes on dividends. But that means that he wants to move away from a simple tax on corporate income, yet he presents the problem as a low ratio of corporate income tax receipts to the product of the headline tax rate times corporate profits.
I am picking on Matthew Yglesias because his confidence that a revenue neutral reduction in tax rates and elimination of loopholes improves efficiency. The claim seems to be that tax expenditures are inefficient and some should be eliminated. I think this claim is exactly as sophisticated and worthy of support as the claim that government spending is inefficient and some should be eliminated. No one likes spending in the abstract — we like the programs we get in exchange for the money. So most US adults want to massively cut Federal Spending and want to increase spending on programs which are responsible for at least 98% of the Federal budget. Identically, no one likes tax expenditures in the abstract, and none of the people who write that most should be eliminated discusses which should be.
Another aside. Many people want to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction and I am one of them. I support taxing especially expensive employer provided health plans as in the PPACA. I oppose the absurd subsidies to oil companies. So I am against some tax expenditures. I also oppose building the F-35 and wasting more money on missile defenses and oppose some federal spending. I don’t consider “cut spending” or “cut tax expenditures” to be useful proposals.
It is often just assumed that a simpler tax code is better and, in particular, that any choices made because of the tax code are inefficient. The same people who generally denounce tax expenditures, propose new tax based incentives including say a carbon tax. Yet somehow the fact that they propose to use the tax code to influence behavior has no effect on their claim that past efforts to use the tax code to influence behavior are worse than worthless. See this post by the very same Matthew Yglesias on the very same day “This is an inefficient outcome, which is why we need taxes and regulation.”
In the corporate tax post, Yglesias suggests shifting taxes from corporate profits to dividends. I agree. He also complains about loopholes in the corporate tax code. One such loophole (a huge one and for all I know the hugest) is the investment tax credit which serves to shift the burden of taxes from re-invested profits to dividends. We could eliminate that loophole, cut the corporate income tax rate and introduce a new flat witholding tax on dividends. This would change precisely exactly nothing. But it would reduce the headline corporate income tax rate without reducing tax revenues (I tried to propose a change such that each and every corporation would have exactly the same tax bill under the reformed system).
I vaguely recall (so no link) the most extreme example of illogic in the cause of tax simplification. Someone argued that we should eliminate corporate tax loopholes in general (mentioning no exceptions) because we want corporations to invest in R%D and hire engineers and not to invest in tax avoidance and hire lawyers and accountants. I claim a fair summary of this argument is the following: To increase corporate investment in R&D we should eliminate, among other things, the R&D tax credit.
I don’t really know much about the corporate tax code, so I will close by discussing a topic on which I am extraordinarily expert — laziness. I think a large part of the reason that commentators hate the complexity of the tax code is that it makes commentary on tax policy much more difficult. The inefficiency which bothers me sometimes is the huge amount of work I would have to put into learning about the tax code if I were to try to discuss its effects on the economy responsibly. Discussing it would be much simpler if it were much simpler.
I don’t think this is a serious consideration. The time and effort of lawyers and accountants aiming to minimize tax liabilities is a social waste and a large one. The time and effort of economists and pundits trying to understand the tax code is a social cost, but it is a small cost.
A little light reading….
http://www.amazon.com/gp/search?index=books&linkCode=qs&keywords=0324828632
“Closing dividends” is gibberish, not sure what he is shooting at.
Assuming he wants to raise the personal rates on dividends, investors will simply lobby for fewer dividends and more stock growth. Be careful……
If corporations are “persons” separate from their shareholders then why shouldn’t corporations pay for the costs of government ?
Robert
I will never change your orientation… and don’t really want to. But from my orientation, it’s not a “grammatical” error, it’s just bad logic.
and the “closing dividends” looks like a more serious error than bad proofreading. a whole lot of what passes as responsible discussion is based on superficial readings of stuff most or all of the responsible folks at the table don’t understand.
that said, i don’t favor any kind of tax code that tries to manipulate incentives or “maximize efficiency.” that always becomes pure political games. either tax all income… progressively. or just tax the corporations and let them pass the tax on to their customers.
the free market will then work its invisible hand to adjust the “justice” of the situation…. especially if the government helps with a little judicious use of the taxes after they have been collected.
and in the interests of “logical consistency”
a gas tax would have been a smart way to pay the costs of providing gas to the people… as opposed to using the income tax to pay for “defense.” the higher cost of gas that would incentivize more efficient use of a scarce resource (air). and while this violates my principle of not writing a tax code to manipulate incentives.. at least the incentives are very transparent and something we could sensibly agree about… as opposed to pretending that all the decisions made by all corporations and all “investors” are the same and equally good for the country.
So if we eliminate corporate income taxes, what’s to prevent everyone from incorporating and never paying income taxes again except when they withdraw dividends for spending. We than could all be like hedge fund managers with carried interest.
So if we eliminate corporate income taxes, what’s to prevent everyone from incorporating and never paying income taxes again except when they withdraw dividends for spending. We than could all be like hedge fund managers with carried interest.
I was going to bring up a carbon tax in reply to your earlier comment. I’d say the case for simple tax codes is based on the ratio between meddling with public spirited intenetions and responding to special interest lobbying. You write “pure political game”. Do you really mean 100% pure political with nothing else involved at all ?
I think you mean that there is a huge amount of lobbying and special interest influence and the whole business is so sordid that people would grab their pitchforks if they knew what was going on (I mean non farmers would go to farming supply stores and buy pitchforks just because it is that bad). But outrageously, disgustingly, sordidly political isn’t purely political.
For that reason, I would look at individual huge credits and try to decide if they should be eliminated. I would keep the investment tax credit (actually I would restrict it to equipment investment not structures) and the R&D tax credit which is IIRC designed to be revenue neutral.
I don’t have to claim all investment is equally good to generally prefer reinvestment to paying dividends. Here the point is, as usual, the equity premium paradox. The valuation of common stock is very low. It doesn’t make sense for society as a whole. So I think more investment would be good for the average person.
I am perfectly prepared to say that I think the market is dead wrong and that I know better. Note I base my claim on the work of Mehra and Prescott. When Prescott says that the market outcome makes no sense, attention should be paid. This pattern in the data is so extreme that Ed Prescott says he can’t reconcile it with rationality. He has also written that the great depression is no big deal.
Robert
I guess I am of the opinion that “pure politics” is too hard to disentangle from arguably good social results. Unless the tax code.. or legal code… is so simple and transparent that the people can rationally decide that they think the result justifies the cost.
I am reasonably sure that once I let experts, like you, start to tell me what the marginal benefit to society is from a tax code that favors abstractions like dividends or reinvestment (abstractions.. because the word applies to a million situations) then “pure politics” takes over.
I would agree that the market is dead wrong in at least several highly visible cases. But I think the answer to that is direct government regulation, not gaming the tax code.
I am reasonably sure… i am not an economist… that a game-proof simple tax code would result in the market adjusting prices to accomplish everything the more complex tax code is supposed to accomplish but can’t because of the political gaming.
That, of course, leaves my gas tax sticking out like a sore thumb… one which i think is simple and transparent enough to fix without silliness like “cap and trade.”
You seem to be saying above that an economist who is ludicrously wrong about something should be taken seriously just because he says something that agrees with the opposite political side. I am afraid i take a different view of evidence of competence and honesty.