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Open thread May 14, 2010

Dan Crawford | May 14, 2010 5:21 pm

Comments (27) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
27 Comments
  • Jimi says:
    May 14, 2010 at 5:51 pm

    Eric Holder is disgrace to his poistion.

    Item #1- He refuses to admit, let along mention, “Radical Islam” in hi stestimony to Congress. He is the Attorney General of the United States of America, and he can’t even define who the Enemies of the Country are….Pathetic

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOQt_mP6Pgg

    Item #2 – He threatens to file a lawsuit against Arizona for their new “Illegal Immigration Law” being unconstitutional, and then admits that he hasn’t read the Law.

    All Democratic supporters pissed and moaned for last eight years of Bush’s Administration, over every little detail and mistake, and now we have complete incompetence in total control in the House, Senate and the Executive Branch, and all of a sudden everybody is silent……It’s Pathetic! 

  • CoRev says:
    May 14, 2010 at 6:12 pm

    Awww, Jimi, you don’t have to be so harsh!  Call hypocrisy when you see it!

    Oh, and yes, this past year has been pathetic.

  • CoRev says:
    May 14, 2010 at 6:26 pm

    Well the Cap & Trade Bill has finally been introduced in the Senate.  If you think the HC Bill is bad this is even worse.  It has all but eliminated reference to the AGw reason for its introduction.  It is now an energy bill.  But, is actually more and bigger payoffs for the industry supporters.

    Joe Bastardi predicts a higher than average hurricane season.  Not due to global warming, but due to several weather conditions. Perhaps the most important is the end of the El Nino and start of the La Nina.

  • amateur socialist says:
    May 14, 2010 at 8:51 pm

    Now with extra hydrocarbons!  It’s what plants crave!

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 14, 2010 at 11:00 pm

    When you put it that way, does that mean plants are herbivores, in some sort of big round about way?

    That sounds gross.

    Now that Cap&Trade is moving forward, will we see our dream of covering the entire state of Nevada with semiconductor material come to fruition?

  • CoRev says:
    May 14, 2010 at 11:24 pm

    CR, you know better than that. Every attempt at building one of those facilities is met with environmental suit after suit.

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 15, 2010 at 1:37 am

    CoRev,
    Just trying to see if I can sneak one by.

    Just found out we have desert tortoises and they need to be protected. So much for our hopes that “Enough Sunshine falls on Nevada to power the whole USA.”

    And our big new solar thermal (measly 200MW) project in El Centro, CA is meeting resistance now because they are building transmission lines thru the Cleveland National Forest. (This has nothing to do with the City of Cleveland. It is located between San Diego and El Centro)

    They say the towers will screw up the view, but there is no one in the huge forest to see them.

    I think I mentioned here already that windmills are hazardous to California American Eagles. This is clear evidence that the Sierra Club has been infiltrated by Republicans.

    I think Eminent Domain is the place to start, forget about Cap&Trade and just let the EPA and DOE figure out what to do, and work out funding or loan guarantees as necessary. They already know who the big CO2 sources are and have a pretty good idea what can be done about our energy and GHG problems. 

  • CoRev says:
    May 15, 2010 at 7:29 am

    Here’s another little tidbit re: the Energy, Jobs, Cap & Trade, Train Reschedule, and Soup/Chicken in Every Pot Bill.  
     
    ““The global temperature “savings” of the Kerry-Lieberman bill is astoundingly small – 0.043C (0.077F) by 2050 and 0.111C (0.200F) by 2100. In other words, by century’s end, reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 83% will only result in global temperatures being one-fifth of one degree Fahrenheit less than they would otherwise be. That is a scientifically meaningless reduction.” ” 

    From here: http://www.masterresource.org/2010/05/the-american-power-act-a-climate-dud/

    To reach these levels of lower temperature we must shelf belief in other natural causes for temperature increases, other human caused changes in temps, and have other countries increase CO2 at today’s rate of increase.

    Yup!  That’s a big suspension of beliefs while our own economy is devastated for some ill-defined and still unproven theory.  If you actually believe the theory is proven, then you haven’t been listening to the debate.

  • CoRev says:
    May 15, 2010 at 8:35 am

    Finally, for you true believers out there, can you answer the following questions?

    Questions posed for Kerry, Lieberman on new climate-energy bill

    By Paul Driessen and Dr. Willie Soon

    The new Kerry-Lieberman climate bill mandates a 17% reduction in US carbon dioxide emissions by 2020. It first targets power plants that provide reliable, affordable electricity for American homes, schools, hospitals, offices and factories. Six years later, it further hobbles the manufacturing sector itself.
    Like the House-passed climate bill, Kerry-Lieberman also requires an 83% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Once population growth and transportation, communication and electrification technologies are taken into account, this translates into requiring US emission levels last seen around 1870!
    House Speaker Pelosi says “every aspect of our lives must be subjected to an inventory,” to ensure that America achieves these emission mandates. This means replacing what is left of our free-market economy with an intrusive Green Nanny State, compelling us to switch to unreliable wind and solar power, and imposing skyrocketing energy costs on every company and citizen. 
    Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency is implementing its own draconian energy restrictions, in case Congress does not enact punitive legislation.
    It’s time to ask these politicians some fundamental questions.
    1) Even slashing carbon dioxide emissions to 83% below 2005 levels would reduce projected global average temperatures in 2050 by barely 0.2 degrees F, according to a study that used the UN’s own climate models. That’s because China, India and other developing countries are building new coal-fired power plants every week, even as the United States and Europe shackle their economies and send more jobs overseas. How do you justify such destructive, punitive, meaningless legislation?
    2) Reflecting agreement with thousands of scientists, most Americans now say climate change is natural, not manmade. Fully 75% are unwilling to spend more than $100 per year in higher energy bills to “stabilize” Earth’s unpredictable climate. What provision of the Constitution, your oath of office or your duty to the overall health and welfare of this nation permits you to ignore the will of the people, the mounting evidence that “climate disasters” are the product of manipulated data and falsified UN reports, and the job-killing impacts of the laws and regulations you seek to impose?
    3) If carbon dioxide is causing “runaway global warming,” why have average global temperatures not risen since 1995, and why have they been COOLING for the past five years – even as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have continued to rise to levels unprecedented in the modern era?
    4) What properties does manmade carbon dioxide have that enable it to replace the complex natural forces that clearly caused the Ice Ages, Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, Dust Bowl, ice-free Arctic seas in 1822 and 1922, Alaska’s 100 degree F temperature record in 1915, and all the other climate and weather changes and anomalies, blessings and disasters that our planet has experienced during its long geologic and recorded history?

    State record highs (enlarged here) show the 1930s still dominates.
    5) What physical or chemical properties does manmade carbon dioxide have that would enable it to overturn the laws of thermodynamics – and cause temperatures in Antarctica to rise 85 degrees F (from an average of […]

  • CoRev says:
    May 15, 2010 at 8:38 am

    A graphic not carried over with article.

  • ilsm says:
    May 15, 2010 at 11:35 am

    Being a Northern I think the US gulf coast should be covered with tar balls.  Better from BP wells as they could not grab New Orleans in 1814, just pay backs.

    Forget the carbon cap let’s watch Mobile Bay turn brown.

  • Lyle says:
    May 15, 2010 at 7:59 pm

    Re point #8 FPL demonstarates that objections can be silenced with money (they built a line in TX by paying landowners more for the rights). Neighbors may not like it but in Tx that is just tough. Ranchers like Wind in Tx because it is free money for little give up. A rancher in Snyder Tx saw the turbines going in to the south, saw the money the landowners were getting and said, lets get together and bring in a wind farm so we can get our free money.
    Of course on of the issues in line sitting is a requirement that the line be built as cheaply as possible. If you were to follow I-10 or I-8 in you could minimize the impact, at a longer distance for the line.

  • VtCodger says:
    May 16, 2010 at 12:02 pm

    I don’t really have an opinion on this.  There’s no doubt that the ENSO sea water changes (El Nino, La Nina) are real and it’d be surprising if they didn’t somehow affect tropical storms, their strength, and where they occur.  OTOH, the correclation between storms and La Nina seems to be largely based on a short period 70 years ago.  See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/societal/example/PielkeLandsea.html

    Anyway, what’s Joe Bastardis’ record and what did he predict for last year?

    I do kind of suspect that many tropical storm predictions are no more reliable than the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

    Wikipedia has a lot to say http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_tropical_cyclone  Bottom line.  I think.  We know a lot about how the storms form and their growth and progress.  There appear to be cyclic phenomena controlling their strength and number.  We don’t really know what the cycles are.  Presatellite data just isn’t good enough for most analysis because of its spotty coverage.  So, basically we have about 40 years worth of decent data which isn’t enough to base long term forecasts on?  Sound right to you?

  • VtCodger says:
    May 16, 2010 at 12:18 pm

    ***And our big new solar thermal (measly 200MW) project in El Centro, CA is meeting resistance now because they are building transmission lines thru the Cleveland National Forest. (This has nothing to do with the City of Cleveland. It is located between San Diego and El Centro)  ***

    Not to mention that large parts of the National Forests in Southern California are berift of anything resembling trees because there isn’t enough rainfall to support anything other than (highly flamable) brush.  Rattlesnakes, poison oak, and various spiny flora do reasonably well however.

    A curious thing.  As far as I can tell, reasonably large solar installations in the Southwest are announced fairly often.  Some actually get built.  But very few of them appear to be in regualr service.  And the publicity releases rarely distinguish between peak power and total power over time or do so in terms that aren’t convertible to anything rigorous. 

    I’m in favor of solar power up to the point where its inability to deliver baseliine load becomes an issue.  But it’s hard to develop much enthusiasm for stuff that appears to be more showcase than actual energy source.

  • VtCodger says:
    May 16, 2010 at 12:29 pm

    Y’know, I don’t believe the global warming numbers when wielded by global warming alarmists.  Neither do I believe them when they come from the don’t mess with our coal folks as I think your material probably does.

    In any case, I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in hell that there will be an 87% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.  Neither do I think anyone will notice the failure to meet that deadline until November of 2049 … if then.  But I do think that switching from coal and petroleum to natural gas which emits far less CO2 per BTU is not only good public policy.  By sheer good luck, it’s probably close to economically optimal as well.

    I don’t think that building a bunch of nuclear power plants would be all that bad an idea either.  And windmills and solar as well.  And dontcha think we ought to upgrade the power grid even if it means spending some money?

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 16, 2010 at 2:17 pm

    Be afraid. Very, very afraid.

    I did do a wiki search once on legacy solar installations in the SW desert. They have been built on a very small scale since the 80s. Found about half a dozen. Majority is solar thermal, and many are sort of mothballed. Ellis AFB is the most modern and is in use.

    You would there would be a plethora of glowing studies showing that we have a virtual goldmine of sunshine, the real world studies to prove it, and lots of people figuring out how to sell it to Arabs. But no, much silence instead.

    Tech advances is the Holy Grail. There is some notable progress here. First Solar developed a thin film process which yields cells at a $1 cost vs the old tech $3 cost. They are 10% efficient which is as good as old cell tech.

    Brightsource (the company building the PG&E El Centro project) made some refinements in solar thermal designs.

    Rooftop solar is being heavily subsidized, but I’ve seen cost studies here that without subsidies it costs about 4X the average retail cost of 11 cents/kw.

    But solar can’t do baseload, so without an economical way to store power, it will be severely limited in usefulness. It mostly needs to be backed up by reliable baseload, so you have to add the costs together. 

    Irregardless of what happens with cap&trade, about 40 states have already passed legislation mandating that between 5% and 10% of these states’ (depending on state) electric power shall come from renewables. They generally picked the renewable sources that made the most sense for a states’ geography and resources.   

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 16, 2010 at 2:18 pm

    Be afraid. Very, very afraid.

    I did do a wiki search once on legacy solar installations in the SW desert. They have been built on a very small scale since the 80s. Found about half a dozen. Majority is solar thermal, and many are sort of mothballed. Ellis AFB is the most modern and is in use.

    You would there would be a plethora of glowing studies showing that we have a virtual goldmine of sunshine, the real world studies to prove it, and lots of people figuring out how to sell it to Arabs. But no, much silence instead.

    Tech advances is the Holy Grail. There is some notable progress here. First Solar developed a thin film process which yields cells at a $1 cost vs the old tech $3 cost. They are 10% efficient which is as good as old cell tech.

    Brightsource (the company building the PG&E El Centro project) made some refinements in solar thermal designs.

    Rooftop solar is being heavily subsidized, but I’ve seen cost studies here that without subsidies it costs about 4X the average retail cost of 11 cents/kw.

    But solar can’t do baseload, so without an economical way to store power, it will be severely limited in usefulness. It mostly needs to be backed up by reliable baseload, so you have to add the costs together. 

    Irregardless of what happens with cap&trade, about 40 states have already passed legislation mandating that between 5% and 10% of these states’ (depending on state) electric power shall come from renewables. They generally picked the renewable sources that made the most sense for a states’ geography and resources.   

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 16, 2010 at 2:18 pm

    Be afraid. Very, very afraid.

    I did do a wiki search once on legacy solar installations in the SW desert. They have been built on a very small scale since the 80s. Found about half a dozen. Majority is solar thermal, and many are sort of mothballed. Ellis AFB is the most modern and is in use.

    You would there would be a plethora of glowing studies showing that we have a virtual goldmine of sunshine, the real world studies to prove it, and lots of people figuring out how to sell it to Arabs. But no, much silence instead.

    Tech advances is the Holy Grail. There is some notable progress here. First Solar developed a thin film process which yields cells at a $1 cost vs the old tech $3 cost. They are 10% efficient which is as good as old cell tech.

    Brightsource (the company building the PG&E El Centro project) made some refinements in solar thermal designs.

    Rooftop solar is being heavily subsidized, but I’ve seen cost studies here that without subsidies it costs about 4X the average retail cost of 11 cents/kw.

    But solar can’t do baseload, so without an economical way to store power, it will be severely limited in usefulness. It mostly needs to be backed up by reliable baseload, so you have to add the costs together. 

    Irregardless of what happens with cap&trade, about 40 states have already passed legislation mandating that between 5% and 10% of these states’ (depending on state) electric power shall come from renewables. They generally picked the renewable sources that made the most sense for a states’ geography and resources.   

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 16, 2010 at 3:33 pm

    I already decided that I’m getting too old and lazy to become a competent climatologist and figure out if global warming is for real, is it CO2 that is doing it, is man made CO2 the significant portion of it, and can Man do something to make a difference and reduce global temperature by a degree or so and head off the end of the world.

    So I’m just going with the flow (or iceflow) and believing whatever the powers-to-be say.

    To make myself feel better about placing such trust in science (infallible as the track record has been) and our leaders ($800B in revenues  from cap&trade were already put into the Admin’s 10 year budget, and Harry Reid already proposed spending it on healthcare), I’m looking at it as two sort of related problems. We have an energy problem and we have a climate change problem. We must look for solutions that solve both, so that if we are wrong about one one, we are still right about the other.

    The thing that makes it a challenge is that coal solves one problem, but makes the other worse.

    But NG power plants is a great step in the right direction. The CO2 output is around half that of coal. They cost less than half what a coal plant costs to build (not even including CO2 capture and/or conversion). Many were built in the 90s and when NG prices were $3.50, they actually produced cheaper power than a coal plant. Since then NG has fluctuated between $3.50 and $15 and back again, so things change. 

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 16, 2010 at 3:33 pm

    I already decided that I’m getting too old and lazy to become a competent climatologist and figure out if global warming is for real, is it CO2 that is doing it, is man made CO2 the significant portion of it, and can Man do something to make a difference and reduce global temperature by a degree or so and head off the end of the world.

    So I’m just going with the flow (or iceflow) and believing whatever the powers-to-be say.

    To make myself feel better about placing such trust in science (infallible as the track record has been) and our leaders ($800B in revenues  from cap&trade were already put into the Admin’s 10 year budget, and Harry Reid already proposed spending it on healthcare), I’m looking at it as two sort of related problems. We have an energy problem and we have a climate change problem. We must look for solutions that solve both, so that if we are wrong about one one, we are still right about the other.

    The thing that makes it a challenge is that coal solves one problem, but makes the other worse.

    But NG power plants is a great step in the right direction. The CO2 output is around half that of coal. They cost less than half what a coal plant costs to build (not even including CO2 capture and/or conversion). Many were built in the 90s and when NG prices were $3.50, they actually produced cheaper power than a coal plant. Since then NG has fluctuated between $3.50 and $15 and back again, so things change. 

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 16, 2010 at 3:33 pm

    I already decided that I’m getting too old and lazy to become a competent climatologist and figure out if global warming is for real, is it CO2 that is doing it, is man made CO2 the significant portion of it, and can Man do something to make a difference and reduce global temperature by a degree or so and head off the end of the world.

    So I’m just going with the flow (or iceflow) and believing whatever the powers-to-be say.

    To make myself feel better about placing such trust in science (infallible as the track record has been) and our leaders ($800B in revenues  from cap&trade were already put into the Admin’s 10 year budget, and Harry Reid already proposed spending it on healthcare), I’m looking at it as two sort of related problems. We have an energy problem and we have a climate change problem. We must look for solutions that solve both, so that if we are wrong about one one, we are still right about the other.

    The thing that makes it a challenge is that coal solves one problem, but makes the other worse.

    But NG power plants is a great step in the right direction. The CO2 output is around half that of coal. They cost less than half what a coal plant costs to build (not even including CO2 capture and/or conversion). Many were built in the 90s and when NG prices were $3.50, they actually produced cheaper power than a coal plant. Since then NG has fluctuated between $3.50 and $15 and back again, so things change. 

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 16, 2010 at 3:45 pm

    Someday I may even solve my multiple post problem, but no guarantees.

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 17, 2010 at 2:25 am

    Here’s how this is going. Couldn’t decide if it goes under energy, climate change, reducing the trade deficit (w/o devaluing your currency), or creating jobs (w/o increasing the fiscal deficit).

    So I put it here.

    BTW, Westinghouse already licensed their 3rd Gen nuke reactor design to China and China is setting up to manufacture it and all supply chain components that go into it. It is a modular design and most parts get built in a factory then are assembled quickly on the site. So we may see “Made in China” on our nuke plants someday. 

    “
    BEIJING (AP) — U.S. leaders want China’s clean energy boom to drive technology exports and are sending a sales mission to Beijing this week. But Beijing wants to create its own suppliers of wind, solar and other equipment and is limiting access to its market, setting up a new trade clash with Washington and Europe.
    China passed the United States last year as the biggest clean power market, stoking hopes for Western sales of wind turbines, solar cells and other gear. But U.S. and European companies find that while Beijing welcomes foreign technology, it wants manufacturing done here and know-how shared with local partners. In the wind industry, foreign suppliers with factories in China say they are shut out of major projects.
    “China is very keen on being able to depend on themselves,” said Frank Haugwitz, a renewable energy consultant in Beijing.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Europe-look-to-China-for-apf-2207328030.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 17, 2010 at 2:25 am

    Here’s how this is going. Couldn’t decide if it goes under energy, climate change, reducing the trade deficit (w/o devaluing your currency), or creating jobs (w/o increasing the fiscal deficit).

    So I put it here.

    BTW, Westinghouse already licensed their 3rd Gen nuke reactor design to China and China is setting up to manufacture it and all supply chain components that go into it. It is a modular design and most parts get built in a factory then are assembled quickly on the site. So we may see “Made in China” on our nuke plants someday. 

    “
    BEIJING (AP) — U.S. leaders want China’s clean energy boom to drive technology exports and are sending a sales mission to Beijing this week. But Beijing wants to create its own suppliers of wind, solar and other equipment and is limiting access to its market, setting up a new trade clash with Washington and Europe.
    China passed the United States last year as the biggest clean power market, stoking hopes for Western sales of wind turbines, solar cells and other gear. But U.S. and European companies find that while Beijing welcomes foreign technology, it wants manufacturing done here and know-how shared with local partners. In the wind industry, foreign suppliers with factories in China say they are shut out of major projects.
    “China is very keen on being able to depend on themselves,” said Frank Haugwitz, a renewable energy consultant in Beijing.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Europe-look-to-China-for-apf-2207328030.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

  • Cedric Regula says:
    May 17, 2010 at 2:26 am

    Here’s how this is going. Couldn’t decide if it goes under energy, climate change, reducing the trade deficit (w/o devaluing your currency), or creating jobs (w/o increasing the fiscal deficit).

    So I put it here.

    BTW, Westinghouse already licensed their 3rd Gen nuke reactor design to China and China is setting up to manufacture it and all supply chain components that go into it. It is a modular design and most parts get built in a factory then are assembled quickly on the site. So we may see “Made in China” on our nuke plants someday. 

    “
    BEIJING (AP) — U.S. leaders want China’s clean energy boom to drive technology exports and are sending a sales mission to Beijing this week. But Beijing wants to create its own suppliers of wind, solar and other equipment and is limiting access to its market, setting up a new trade clash with Washington and Europe.
    China passed the United States last year as the biggest clean power market, stoking hopes for Western sales of wind turbines, solar cells and other gear. But U.S. and European companies find that while Beijing welcomes foreign technology, it wants manufacturing done here and know-how shared with local partners. In the wind industry, foreign suppliers with factories in China say they are shut out of major projects.
    “China is very keen on being able to depend on themselves,” said Frank Haugwitz, a renewable energy consultant in Beijing.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Europe-look-to-China-for-apf-2207328030.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

  • Cardiff says:
    May 17, 2010 at 9:14 am

    Jimi,

    So far it looks like the last two high profile terrorist suspects talked without harsh interogations. However, if they didn’t I would like to reserve the right to dunk them. Holder is bending to political reality on closing Gitmo, location of terroist trials, and interrogations. so I think he is representing the country well enough for a democrat.I’ve gotten used to taking my shoes off when going through security lines at airports so we now have enhanced security and I don’t see us going back to pre-911 mentality until the Islamic hill people come into modern times.

    I don’t see the need right now to get rid of him. I will change this view if he starts to compromise national security. We need to be doing wire taps and investigating Americans with a high probability of doing terrorist opperations such people making trips back and forth to Pakistan, especially after they have lost their job, and groups running around in the woods and planning to copycat Al Quida operations in the U.S.

  • CoRev says:
    May 17, 2010 at 9:49 am

    Codger asked how did Joe Bastardi do last year?  Going from memory he was right on in the hurricane and winter predictions.  His long range predictions over the past few years are really quite good.  Much bvetter than the UK Met’s, which has stiopped even making them.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Met stop the ralatively short range seasonal predictions as they are being laughed at when issued.

    That’s what happens when a science, meteorology, gets married to an unproven theory, CAGW.

    As far as ENSO, Bob Tisdale has done some rally good work on the impacts of the Nino/as.  If youa re not already familiar he is here: http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/

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