Obama and Social Security: NewDealDemocrat Tees Off
by Bruce Webb (UPDATE: Digby readers, I want to make it clear that I am not NewDealDemocrat, I just got permission to cross-post this important compilation from NDD.)
Blog friend NewDealDemocrat has a recommended diary up on dKos called Mr. President, No Real Democrat is agnostic about Social Security. NewDeal gave me an advance look and authorized me to cross post it which I am doing below the fold. I don’t entirely endorse the conclusions but think this is an important reference work, NewDeal having tracked down just about every public statement ever made by Obama on Social Security. So this is more an archival post to be added to the Social Security series. Comment here if you like but I would urge everyone registered at dKos to put in a word over there.
And yes as New Deal warns this is very long.
Last week President Obama said that he will be “agnostic” as to any changes, including Social Security benefit cuts, that his debt reduction commission recommends. This is a far cry from his constant campaign rhetoric in which he promised to listen to all recommendations, but his plan was to raise the payroll cap on contributions.
This is a sad but necessary piece in which I lay out the evidence, which I believe is compelling, that Barack Obama’s own words and deeds reveal that his real agenda all along has been to use a commission or summit to cut Social Security benefits, and that the campaign rhetoric was just a sop to anesthetize opposition. This for a program that, at worst, faces a shortfall 30 years from now, and that Obama himself called the cornerstone of the American social compact.
(Apologies, this is really long. But to reveal the truth, a truth that has been hiding in plain sight right before our eyes all along, the full record must be laid out.)
Of his Social Security system, FDR bluntly called it:
politics all the way through. We put those pay roll contributions there so as to give the contributors a legal, moral, and political right to collect their pensions and their unemployment benefits. With those taxes in there, no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program. Those taxes aren’t a matter of economics, they’re straight politics.”
So you would think that a Democratic President would be an ardent supporter of ensuring that workers received the benefits under the system that they had worked for and contributed to their entire lives. Not so. Last week President Obama said that
a presidential commission on the budget needs to consider all options for reducing the deficit, including tax increases and cuts in spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
“The whole point of it is to make sure that all ideas are on the table,” the president said in the interview with Bloomberg BusinessWeek, which will appear on newsstands Friday. “So what I want to do is to be completely agnostic, in terms of solutions.”
When Barack Obama does not actually support a plan, he offers vague platitudes but nothing more. Such was his “support” for crucial, progressive, popular ideas about Health Care Reform, supposedly his Administration’s signature piece of legislation. In contrast, when Barack Obama has wanted to, he has been relentless and decisive, as he was in September 2008 when he quickly and crucially supported the Wall Street bailout. And just last month, the White House was quick to whip a wavering Senate into line about reconfirming Fed Chair Ben Bernanke with a 50, not 60, vote threshold. More on the significance of that at then end of this article.
So we need to look past Obama’s always-perfect rhetoric to see they are just flaccid platitudes or if his actions show firm resolution. When it comes to Social Security, a comparison of what Obama the candidate said and what Obama the President has done show that his pledges to simply increase payroll taxes fall into the category of platitudes, while changing the program, apparently in part by cutting benefits, is clearly a matter of firm resolve. In essence, Obama’s reasurance that while he would “convene a meeting” to listen to all sides, what he actually would propose would be a small increase in taxes on those earning over $250,000 who could easily afford it, was all along just a sop or a stalking horse to induce voters to overlook what was hiding in plain sight, namely his desire for a “nonpartisan” or “bipartisan” comission that would recommend cuts in Social Security benefits.
The evidence comes right out of Obama’s mouth, and when put together, in my opinion is compelling.
I. Obama the Candidate
Candidate Barack Obama created a small firestorm in November 2007 after he adopted a RW meme and said:
Senator Clinton says that she’s concerned about Social Security but is not willing to say how she would solve the Social Security crisis
and followed that up with a campaign ad in Iowa (no longer online)
“that focused on Social Security[, i]n [which] he [told] a group of Iowans, “I don’t want to just put my finger out to the wind and see what the polls say. I want to bring the country together to solve a problem.”
This RW claim that Social Security was in “crisis” created quite a stir, with Prof. Paul Krugman saying that
Lately, Barack Obama has been saying that major action is needed to avert what he keeps calling a “crisis” in Social Security — most recently in an interview with The National Journal. Progressives who fought hard and successfully against the Bush administration’s attempt to panic America into privatizing the New Deal’s crown jewel are outraged, and rightly so.
That controversy erupted here as well, prompting me to write a diary explaining The Truth about Social Security, in which I pointed out that Social Security is not in “crisis”, and is not a “real problem,” manageable or not, needs no “fix,” nor any intermeddling “Commission.” As stated by the official projections by the Social Security trustees, the program will be solvent without so much as lifting a little finger by anyone old enough to read or write on this blog under the revenue projections which over the last 15 years have almost always proven the most accurate.
Obama soon backtracked, and adopted a much more mainstream democratic position, that he maintained right up until he was elected President. Here is his actual speech in Iowa in which he first set forth his position on Social Security:
In this video (beginning at about 5:40), Obama point-blank states that:
– “Social Security is the cornerstone of the social compact in this country.”
– “We also know that the system has problems.” (later in the video, he says that the items listed below will make Social Security “solvent” indicating that it isn’t now)
– “The underlying system is sound. The actual problem is a projected cash shortfall that can be readily solved. But the longer we wait to solve the problem, the bigger it grows,” “The question is, how to solve this problem” (of the trust fund being depleted in 2040, after which SS turns into a pay as you go system..)
– “On issues as fundamental as how to protect Social Security, a candidate for president owes it to the American people to tell us where they stand,” because you’re not ready to lead if you can’t tell us where you’re going.”
– “I do not believe that we need to cut benefits or raise the retirement age.”
– “The best option, in my view, is to ask the highest income Americans to contribute a little bit more by raising the ceiling on what is currently paid on the amount of earnings subject to the social security tax.”
– “We need to stop borrowing millions from the Social Security trust fund” in the federal budget.
A campaign site that is still up goes into great detail about candidate Obama’s position with regard to Social Security. He emphasized three things:
(1) the belief that in the long run, Social Security was not solvent.
(2) While he would “convene a meeting” to discuss any and all options, forming a commission is exactly the wrong way to deal with the issue, but opposed forming a “binding” commission.
(3) Rising the limit on payroll contributions into the trust fund, beginning with incomre in excess of $250,000 was the best way to rectify the problem.
Here are Candidate Barack Obama’s constant refrains on each of the above three items from that campaign site:
1. Social Security has a “problem”
Good health care and tax reform will save entitlements
Q: How should we fix Social Security and other entitlement programs?
OBAMA: If we get our tax policies right so that they’re good for the middle class, if we reverse the policies of the last eight years that got us into this fix in the first place and that Sen. McCain supported, then we are going to be in a position to deal with Social Security and deal with Medicare….Source: 2008 second presidential debate against John McCain Oct 7, 2008
Q: We all know that Social Security is running out of money….
A: …. we’ve got to make sure that we preserve Social Security is to do the same thing that Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill were able to do back in 1983, which is come up with a bipartisan solution that puts Social Security on a firm footing for a long time.
Source: 2007 YouTube Democratic Primary debate, Charleston SC Jul 23, 2007
2. Obama supported a bipartisan solution to this “problem” including holding a meeting to explore all optionsL
Q: Would you raise the cap for Social Security tax above the current level of the first $97,500 worth of income?
A: I think that lifting the cap is probably going to be the best option. Now we’ve got to have a process [like the one] back in 1983. We need another one. And I think I’ve said before everything should be on the table. My personal view is that lifting the cap is much preferable to the other options that are available. But …we should reject things that will weaken the system, including privatization, which essentially is going to put people’s retirement at the whim of the stock market.Source: 2007 Democratic primary debate at Dartmouth College Sep 6, 2007
Cutting benefits & raising retirement age are wrong answers
Q: You said earlier this year that everything should be on the table for Social Security, including looking at raising retirement age, indexing benefits, and then suddenly you said, “I’m taking them off the table.”
A: That’s not what I said. I said I will convene a meeting as president where we discuss all of the options that are available. I believe that cutting benefits is not the right answer; and that raising the retirement age is not the best option, particularly when we’ve got people who are still in manufacturing.
Q: But in May you said they would be on the table.
A: Well, I am going to be listening to any ideas that are presented, but I think that the best way to approach this is to adjust the cap on the payroll tax so that people like myself are paying a little bit more and the people who are in need are protected. That is the option that I will be pushing forward.
Q: But the other options would be on the table?
A: Well, I will listen to all arguments and the best options.
Source: Meet the Press: 2007 “Meet the Candidates” series Nov 11, 2007
OBAMA’S PLAN
Commitment…Protect Social Security: Obama will preserve Social Security by stopping any efforts to privatize it and working in a bipartisan way to preserve it for future generations.Source: Campaign booklet, “Blueprint for Change”, p. 16-19 Feb 2, 2008
(emphasis within paragraphs mine)
But he was against delegating the issue to any appointed commission:
Must capture new revenue; no new Social Security Comission
OBAMA: We’re going to have to capture some revenue in order to stabilize the Social Security system. You can’t get something for nothing. And if we care about Social Security, which I do, and if we are firm in our commitment to make sure that it’s going to be there for the next generation, and not just for our generation, then we have an obligation to figure out how to stabilize the system. I think we should be honest in presenting our ideas in terms of how we’re going to do that and not just say that we’re going to form a commission and try to solve the problem some other way.
Source: 2008 Philadelphia primary debate, on eve of PA primary Apr 16, 2008
(emphasis mine)
3. Obama supported making up the shortfall by raising the cap on payroll taxes.
Raise cap on payroll tax for 3% of earners over $102,000
Q: The Republicans … say for all your promises not to raise taxes on the middle class, that, in fact, you want to raise the cap on the Social Security payroll tax, and you also want to increase capital gains.
A: In terms of raising the cap on the payroll tax, right now everybody who’s making $102,000 or less pays 100% of payroll tax on 100% of their income. There are about 3% to 4% of Americans who are above $102,000 in income every year….
Source: 2008 Fox News interview: presidential series Apr 27, 2008
Raise $97K cap on payroll tax exempting earnings under $250KOBAMA: What I have proposed is that we raise the cap on the payroll tax, because right now millionaires and billionaires don’t have to pay beyond $97,000 a year….
Q: But that’s a tax on people under $250,000.
OBAMA: That’s why I would look at potentially exempting those who are in between. This is an option that I would strongly consider, because the alternatives, like raising the retirement age, or cutting benefits, or raising the payroll tax on everybody, including people making less than $97,000 a year–those are not good policy options
Source: 2008 Philadelphia primary debate, on eve of PA primary Apr 16, 2008
The wealthy should pay a bit more on the payroll taxSocial Security is not in crisis; it is a fundamentally sound system, but it does have a problem, long-term. We’ve got 78 million baby boomers, who are going to be retiring over the next couple of decades. That means more retirees, fewer workers to support those retirees. We are going to have to do something about it. The best idea is to lift the cap on the payroll tax, potentially exempting middle-class folks, but making sure that the wealthy are paying more of their fair share, a little bit more.
Source: 2007 Democratic debate at Drexel University Oct 30, 2007
What we need to do is to raise the cap on the payroll tax so that wealthy individuals are paying a little bit more into the system, if we are going to deal with this problem specifically.
Source: 2008 Facebook/WMUR-NH Democratic primary debate Jan 6, 2006
In short, Candidate Obama articulated a problem, a process, a preferred result — raising the cap on payroll contributions — and a rejected one — benefit cuts. His campaign reiterated all of those in a closing campaign video in October 2008 that is still posted online:
Then Candidate Obama was elected President. As we will see, while his commitment to “pushing forward” an increase in payroll taxes disappeared, as did his vow not to cut benefits and his denunciation of any “binding commisssion,” his determination that Social Security had a “problem” that was defined exclusively as “rising costs” and the commitment to convene a meeting to push forward “all” (really just GOP and Blue Dog) options to change Social Security was resolute.
II. Obama the President
If his campaign positions were soothing, his words and actions as President, beginning with his very Inauguration speech, were not:
That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood…. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.
….We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions – that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.
(emphasis mine).
Those were jarring words in an otherwise uplifting speech. If Obama was opposed to raising taxes on the middle/working classes, then what could “hard choices” and “unpleasant decisions” for average Americans possibly mean besides cutting back further on their safety net? News accounts of Obama’s felicitations to conservatives who wanted to destroy Social Security that very same week strongly suggest that is exactly what he meant.
In a speech on January 8, 2009,
President-elect Barack Obama said overhauling entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security will be “a central part” of his administration’s efforts to curb federal spending, the New York Times reports. Obama said, “We are beginning consultations with members of Congress around how we expect to approach the deficit,” adding, “We expect that discussion around entitlements will be a part, a central part, of those plans.” Obama said, “If we do nothing, then we will continue to see red ink as far as the eye can see.”
Four days before his Inauguration, he reiterated this theme in a private meeting with the editorial board of the Washington Post during which he
pledged … to shape a new Social Security and Medicare “bargain” with the American people, saying that the nation’s long-term economic recovery cannot be attained unless the government finally gets control over its most costly entitlement programs.
That discussion will begin next month, Obama said, when he convenes a “fiscal responsibility summit” before delivering his first budget to Congress. He said his administration will begin confronting the issues of entitlement reform and long-term budget deficits soon after it jump-starts job growth and the stock market.
And shortly after his Inauguration,
Mr. Obama unexpectedly approached [South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey] Graham when he was at the White House to meet with Rahm Emanuel, Mr. Obama’s chief of staff. Mr. Graham … said in an interview: “I know he’s sincere about wanting to do something about entitlements generally, health care and Social Security. And I want to help him.”
Despite Mr. Obama’s interest, his political and policy advisers are divided … Within the administration, John D. Podesta … is among those arguing for action sooner rather than later. “What this crisis has proven,” he said, “is that we need to have a basic benefit that keeps people out of poverty, and that we need to work at both ends — toward fiscal sustainability and toward ensuring that people, particularly at the bottom, have an adequate benefit.”
The February 2009 “Fiscal Responsibility Summit”
The above January 15 Washington Post article crowed that
President-elect Barack Obama will convene a “fiscal responsibility summit” in February designed to bring together a variety of voices on solving the long term problems with the economy and with a special focus on entitlements….
Those invited to attend will include Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad (N.D.), ranking minority member Judd Gregg (N.H.), the conservative Democratic Blue Dog coalition and a host of outside groups with ideas on the matter, said the president-elect.
Chief among those Blue Dogs was representative Jim Coooper of Tennessee, the only democrat who voted in favor of Bush’s plan to privatize Social Security.
Progressives? Not on the list. At least, not until the last minute. As of February 19:
Yesterday numerous sources in the health care policy world confirmed that the administration told them (again off the record) that Pete Peterson and Laura Tyson would be keynote speakers….
On a conference call today arranged by Campaign for America’s Future that included Roger Hickey, Jamie Galbraith, Nancy Altman and Dean Baker, Roger said that several of them had been told they might be invited to the summit, but no formal invitation had been issued yet (though Pete Peterson has his invitation).
If you didn’t already know, Pete Peterson is the billionaire whose crusade to destroy Social Security and Medicare knows no bounds, and has been well-documented.
While progressives were shut out until the last moment, prior to the “summit,”
Obama met with 44 fiscally conservative “Blue Dog” Democrats this week and gave a nod to legislation that would set up commissions to deal with long-term deficit strains. The commissions would then present plans to Congress for an up-or-down vote.
“We feel like we’ve found a partner in the White House,” said Rep. Charlie Melancon (D., La.), a Blue Dog co-chairman.
So much for “listening to all voices.”
In short, only a month into his Administration, Candidate Obama’s insistence on tax hikes as the method of long term Social Security budget balancing was replaced by President Obama’s embrace of the Diamond-Orszag plan, and a willingness to enforce it by way of a binding commission. That name should be familiar too, because David Orszag is Obama’s budget director, whose
long-running project … has been replacing talk of an “entitlement crisis” with his argument that Social Security requires only modest tax hikes and benefit cuts.
(emphasis mine) Here is a quick partial summary of the “Diamond-Orszag plan”:
Our plan makes the painful choices that are necessary—selecting a combination of benefit and revenue changes to restore long-term balance. In doing so, it focuses on three areas which contribute to the actuarial imbalance: improvements in life expectancy, increases in earnings inequality, and the burden of the legacy debt from Social Security’s early history.
…. For younger workers with average earnings, our proposal involves a gradual reduction in benefits from those scheduled under current law. For example, the reduction in benefits for a 45-year old average earner is less than 1 percent; for a 35-year-old, less than 5 percent; and for a 25-year-old, less than 9 percent. Reductions are smaller for lower earners, and larger for higher ones.
(emphasis mine)
Because of the alarm that reports of the nature of the summit created, it was shrunk to a three hour forum, but the Administrtion let it be known that it was not wavering in its goals:
[T]he administration has tried to tamp down expectations, saying only that the gathering is an opening gambit in a long process toward financial solvency.
Expectations were “tamped down” only because, as the New York Times reported:
Mr. Obama considered announcing the formation of a Social Security task force at a White House “fiscal responsibility summit”…. But several Democrats said that idea had been shelved, partly because of objections from House and Senate leaders….
Liberal Democrats are already serving notice that they will be equally vehement in opposing any reductions in scheduled benefits for future retirees.
The Obama Administration’s continuing targeting of Social Security
If, because of the opposition of Liberal Democrats, particularly in the House, the “summit” went nowhere, the fervor for cutting Social Security benefits never died. Four days later, in a speech before a Joint Session of Congress Obama stated:
“To preserve our long-term fiscal health, we must also address the growing costs in Medicare and Social Security,”
Even more ominously, conservative NY Time columnist David Brooks reported that in early March, “four senior Administration officials” paid him a visit and assured him that
the long-range debt is what matters, and on this subject President Obama is hawkish.
He is extremely committed to entitlement reform and is plotting politically feasible ways to reduce Social Security as well as health spending.
(emphasis mine)
But it turns out that it wasn’t just “senior officials.” We found out later via a column in Newsweek that
after Krugman’s fellow Times op-ed columnist David Brooks wrote a critical column accusing Obama of overreaching, Brooks, a moderate Republican, was cajoled by three different aides and by the president himself, who just happened to drop by.
In other words, one of those four “officials” who assured him that the Administration was looking at ways to “reduce Social Security” was none other than President Barack Obama himself.
Given the relentless and extensive background briefings by Obama himself to the likes of Brooks and the WaPo’s editorial board, the latter’s constant bashing of Social Security denounced by economists Dean Baker and Berkeley Prof. Brad DeLong, among others, does not come out of nowhere. Simply put, the WaPo knows, because he has told them, that despite Candidate Obama’s reassurances, President Obama very much wants to cut Social Security.
For example, Obama had yet another meeting with the WaPo editiorial board in July 2009, as reported by Reuters :
President Barack Obama, under pressure over the ballooning U.S. budget deficit, said on Wednesday he is preparing to launch an effort to rein in the escalating costs of the Social Security retirement fund and other popular government programs.
In an interview with the Washington Post, Obama said a new commission may be needed to examine reforms for addressing the deficit and the huge programs that contribute to the flow of red ink.
“I think we’re in a position to be able to, either at the end of this year or early next year, start laying out a broader picture about how we are going to handle entitlements in a serious way,” Obama said.….”The debt and the deficit are deep concerns of mine,” With public opinion polls showing people are nervous about the size of the deficit, Obama added, “I am very worried about federal spending.”
….”Probably what you end up having to do in terms of structural reforms realistically is you probably have to set up some sort of commission or mechanism that reports back with the prospect of maybe locking in a pledge for action, post-election,” he told The Washington Post. “Everything is going to have to be on the table.”
….Obama said the reform effort “may start with Social Security because that’s, frankly, the easier one.” He also said tax reform should be considered.
Once again, note the about face on binding commissions. And instead of focusing on payroll tax increases for those earning over $100,000, Obama says that tax reform should “also” be considered, meaning that the primary “reform” is to be benefit cuts to “rein in costs.”
Obama was true to his word that the matter would be placed on the front burner again at the end of 2009 or beginning of 2010. In November, Politico reported:
President Barack Obama plans to announce in next year’s State of the Union address that he wants to focus extensively on cutting the federal deficit in 2010 – and will downplay other new domestic spending beyond jobs programs, according to top aides involved in the planning.
….
White House budget director Peter Orszag said in a statement to POLITICO: “The President strongly believes that as the recovery strengthens and job growth returns, we will have to take the tough steps necessary to return our nation to a fiscally disciplined and sustainable path.”
Remember I told you that we would return to the reappointment of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke? If Barack Obama couldn’t be bothered to expend any political capital to ensure that all Americans got reasonable health care, he certainly was able to whip a wavering Senate in line over something he considered important, like Bernanke’s reappointment. Bernanke’s Senate reconfirmation testimony was surely cleared or at least known in advance by the White House and included the following:
Ben Bernanke … arget[ed] nothing less than Social Security:
…. “I think you can’t tackle the problem in the medium term without doing something about getting entitlements under control and reducing the costs, particularly of health care.”
Bernanke reminded Congress that it has the power to repeal Social Security and Medicare. “It’s only mandatory until Congress says it’s not mandatory. And we have no option but to address those costs at some point or else we will have an unsustainable situation,” said Bernanke […]
Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) followed Bennett and pointed out that “there’s only really two ways you can deflect this deficit, and that’s either by cutting expenditures or raising income taxes or other forms of taxes.”
Reed asked him if he could think of other ways, but Bernanke returned to entitlement money as the way to balance the budget.
“Willie Sutton robbed banks because that’s where the money is, as he put it,” Bernanke said. “The money in this case is in entitlements.”
(emphasis mine)
On January 24, 2010, Obama explicitly endorsed the Conrad-Gregg deficit commision, the recommendations of which would be binding. When that failed, he used his State of the Union address to announce that he would appoint a deficit commission of his own via Executive Order.
I ask you: if you are looking for a “neutral, nonpartisan” figure to cite as support for imposing benefit cuts (or perhaps to even spearhead the Commission), then who better than the Chairman of the Federal Reserve?
One final note: remember how Candidate Obama constantly proclaimed that an increase in the ceiling for payment of payroll taxes was the only change that Social Security needed? I searched and searched for any statement by President Barack Obama that that was still his position. After December 2008 there are no such statements to be found anywhere.
In Conclusion, I submit to you that after this long litany of Obama’s own words and actions, there can no longer any doubt that Candidate Obama’s soothing words were a ruse, but that President Obama is relentlessly pushing forward what he said all along he would do: create a commission to examine changes in Social Security, and then enact them. It is not on process but on substance that Candidate Obama lied. Oh, sure, payroll tax increases might “also” be considered — tax increases that surely he will ‘push forward’ with all of the vigor he ‘pushed forward’ critical elements of Health Care Reform.
No real Democrat is “agnostic” about Social Security. As Obama himself solemnly swore, “On issues as fundamental as how to protect Social Security, a candidate for president” does indeed “owe it to the American people to tell us where they stand,” and on the ultimate substance of his stand Candidate Obama lied. So nobody should be surprised if millions of democratic voters become “agnostic” about the re-election of faux “democrats” who do what no Republican has been able to do — to wantonly gut the program which Candidate Obama rightly called “the cornerstone of the social compact in this country.”
_________________________
(New Deal sent me some updates which I attempted to get inserted correctly. But I’ll just put this in as his alternative conclusion)
That controversy erupted here as well, prompting me to write a diary explaining The Truth about Social Security, in which I pointed out that Social Security is not in “crisis”, and is not a “real problem,” manageable or not, needs no “fix,” nor any intermeddling “Commission.” As stated by the official projections by the Social Security trustees at that time, the program will be solvent without so much as lifting a little finger for decades to come. At worst, even after the “Great Recession”, the problem is several decades away and is hardly an urgent priority. Even then, the core retirement program is not the issue; rather the deficits come from other programs such as Social Security disability.
——
Two final notes:
(1) Remember how Candidate Obama constantly proclaimed that an increase in the ceiling for payment of payroll taxes was the only change that Social Security needed? I searched and searched for any statement by President Barack Obama that that was still his position. After December 2008 there are no such statements to be found anywhere.
(2) Even if Obama’s assumptions are correct and his plan restores “solvency” to Social Security, the GOP will not cease their campaign to destroy it. They will loot it again the next time they are in power. And Barack Obama will have set the precedent for the “solution” of further benefit cuts.
Also from the archives here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/11/26/103428/73
Bruce,
Excellent post. Very informative. My only gripe is the throw-away line at the end about the GOP ‘looting’ SS. According to both you and coberly the SS IOUs are still there and backed by the full faith and credit of the USG. No looting involved. If you are arguing about the deficit – take it up with Obama & the Dems who promises deificits in the future that make Bush’s (Very bad) deficits look like a rounding error.
I did notice the combination of SS and medicare in the same pile. Social Security is financially fine, Medicare is out of control. They are two different animals and it seems they want to lump them together. But SS is where the money is according to Bernecke….
Again the issue is the general fund deficit and the fact that the SS surplus has been hiding it. Now no one (R or D) really wants to pay SS what the general fund owes it. Thus the need to ‘fix’ SS to generate more surpluses.
Lastly, I still have trouble getting my head around Obama and the Dems gutting FDR’s signature New Deal program. Sorry it just doesn’t compute….is it a “Nixon goes to China” thing?
Islam will change
My primary reluctance in voting for Obama was a deep concern that his true intention was to undermine Social Security. This concern was caused by two things: (1) what Obama said during the primary campaign (which Krugman commented on); and (2) the fact that Obama’s economic advisors included at least one economist who promoted fundamental changes to SS (I think it was privatization).
On the other hand, I knew that McCain wanted to do the same thing, too, but Bush proved that the Republican president can’t accomplish that. Only a president who is a Democrat can succeed in tearing down what FDR built.
So, I was all set to cast a meaningless protest vote for McCain (I live in California), but the thought of Sarah Palin being one heartbeat away from the presidency was too much for me to bear, so I vote for Obama.
Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.
Bruce
“Remember how Candidate Obama constantly proclaimed that an increase in the ceiling for payment of payroll taxes was the only change that Social Security needed? I searched and searched for any statement by President Barack Obama that that was still his position. After December 2008 there are no such statements to be found anywhere.”
Lyn Sweet Obama on His 100 Days: “Change That You Believe In” April 29, 2009. Arnold Missouri Townhall http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2009/04/obama_on_his_100_days_change_t.html
“You could cut benefits. You could raise the tax on everybody, so everybody’s payroll tax goes up a little bit. Or you can do what I think is probably the best solution, which is you can raise the cap on the payroll tax. (Applause.)”
At least, he is calling this the probable best solution.
Tao:
If you mean Orszag, he didn’t promote privatization. He did call for an assortment of adjustments though.
Hi Buff:
Mostly agree with you on your SS stance.
No Buff. I’d say it’s more a Dems going to hell thing. it has become increasingly difficult to distinguish between Dems and Repubs. The only thing allowing for some distinguishing characterisitics is that the Repubs seem to have gone off the deep end of the right side of the spectrum. That causes the Dems, who now seem to occupy the right side of the center appear to be concerned about people. Today that concern only goes as far as the corporate door step. Remember when people talked about conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans? Only a severe epidemic of Republican foot in mouth disease has helped to make some difference with the Democrats.
I think it was on Angry Bear where i expressed my concern about Obama the candidate specifically because of his doughnut hole approach to any long range issue of increasing social security revenue and the consequent undermining of the principle that FDR mentioned–it is not a welfare program! There is an element of risk–you die too soon without survivors-and an intergenerational compact, but there is no welfare. Having the rich pay just a bit more to solve a non existent problem undermined that core principle. Second Volcker came out in support of Obama. Today a lot of folks think Volcker is a diety because he helped put an end to Carter era stagflation and Greenspan is no longer a diety. What people forget is that Volcker accomplished his “miracle” at the expense of millions of middle class and lower class people who he threw out of work. Volcker is not a pal of the average American and I was very concerned about Obama’s views ala the Nixon going to China. I ended up voting for him because what was the alternative and in a lot of ways I think he has sort of tip toed through the current minefield fairly well given the political reality of GOP obstruction and the extremely weak leadership and divided nature of the Democratic majorities. I think the real answer to Obama is to make sure he understands that if he fools with social security he will not even get the Democratic nomination for a second term, but that the reason is not just the unfairness, but the economic catastrophe that would ensue. If young folks think getting a job is hard now look to the impact of even 25% of seniors deciding not to retire and if corporate America is waiting for the consumer to come back, all you have to do is threaten social security to triple the savings rate overnight. And I expect that there will be a coalition between the left and the Teabaggers with the need to call out federal troops to quell the unrest.
run,
See I am trainable to an extent. I was never on the SS is evil stand even before Bruce and coberly educated me. I was more in the SS shouldn’t be planned upon becuase something ‘bad’ would happen and I wouldn’t see a dime. Bad being very undefined…now it seems to be defined as ‘Obama’.
I’m now in the don’t do anything camp (though like I said before coberly has a good argument for a minor tweak).
Bush and I’m quite sure McCaine had not a snowballs chance of “fixing” SS in anyway, even at the margins. Yet Obama seems heelbent on doing something and he seems capable of actually passing some kind of bill. Just amazing. I figured after Obama won we wouldn’t hear anything about SS until the next Pres election cycle if then.
Jack – I came very close to spitting up my Coke over your comment. Very funny. I can’t agree more with the “severe epidemic of Republican foot in mouth disease”. And it seems to be spreading and highly contagous.
Islam will change
Bruce–Thanks for calling our attention to NewDealDem’s excellent diary on DKos. He did a good job of expressing most of my misgivings regarding the Obama administration’s apparently cozy relationship with a lot of Peterson’s group and others who have similar views. Of course, this subject will never go away. The “solvency crisis” is a red herring. Killing Social Security is the goal and always will be. So, I will look forward to your and Coberly’s continuing efforts to fend of those who, like Peterson and Bernanke, want to go “where the money is”.
Well put, Buff. This is not an occaision for phony “bipartisanship.” It is just another example of when to take yes for an answer. Yes, Social Security is solvent. And, yes, it’s a good idea to just leave it alone.
You know i am sorry, but ranting is good therapy. FDR put the brakes on a pretty good recovery in 1937 because of concerns about the deficit. Everyone on the right wants to argue that he prolonged the Depression by using Keynesian prescriptions and it was WWII which got us out of it nevermind that WWII was a Keynesian remedy. So Obama has been careful to not call for the sort of tax increases that we need to balance the budget on everything except social security which has a huge surplus. What kind of nonsense shell game is this? If they are really concerned about the F***ing National Debt then why don’t they sell our National Parks to the Chinese and be done with it. I for one would be appalled, but not nearly as appalled as cutting promised benefits to people who have paid into the system for 50 years and have paid in enough that the promised benefits would be available had the politicians of both parties not been so feckless when it came to taxes for the last 30 years. And what about the military spending which is designed in large part to provide profits to the military industrial complex and protect business interests abroad?
So let’s reiterate what’s happening here:
1. Preznit Hopey Changey basically embraces a Republican position — Republicans have been trying to get Social Security repealed ever since it was passed, and Hopey’s proposal is the first step towards that goal.
2. The Republicans, rather than celebrating their victory… call Preznit Hopey Changey a socialist. Despite the fact that Preznit Hopey Changey is apparently embracing their agenda of dismantling the last remaining major program of FDR’s New Deal.
Hmm. Anybody else smelling some rotten herring here? Or is that just the garbage can here on my iceberg?
– Badtux the Snarky Penguin
No he means Liebman, author of the truly horrible Liebman-MacGuineas-Samwick Non-Partisan Social Security Reform Plan or LMS. Liebman, was with Goolsbee and Cutler the original three members of the Obama campaign’s economic team, and Liebman is now installed as #2 to Orszag at OMB.
And speaking of McCain Maya MacGuineas another co-author was previously McCain’s top econ advisor ,even as Samwick held a top position in the Bush WH.
I was not happy to see Liebman show up on the Obama team and am not happy that he is in a position to influence the Budget Commission.
Yes, I was thinking Liebman. Thanks.
buff
the iou’s are still backed by the full faith etc.
but full faith is not what it used to be. they will use the “deficit” as cover to gut social security. not sure whehter they really care about the iou’s. no doubt they would like to never have to pay them back, but i think the real target is just to cripple social security. there is no obvious financial reason for them to do so. i think the really rich (not you) just really hate the idea that the poor would have a chance to retire. what would be the point in being rich then?
jack
it’s all a morality play. the dems and repubs are just playing good cop and bad cop.
don’t count onthe democrats having a clue. last time i tried to talk to my local party they looked at me like i had an albatross around my neck.
the changes will all be “in the future” so by the time anyone notices there will be no one around to blame. and their memories are too short to remember last year or even three minutes ago when they heard something else.
bad tux
you gotta be careful how you talk in front of the people. i said something disrespectfur about Our President and got called a racist. In spite of the fact that Obama is about to do more harm to black people than anyone since Roger B Taney.
coberly:
You and me both. Letters don’t seem to capture there attention. Split vote on the Conrad bill in my state even after I pointed out to each of them deficit reduction activities should not be delegated to committee but it should be debated in open forum.
This sure is a copious documentation! Now the chicken come home to roost – this social security calamity is the beginning of inevitable sovereign default and bankruptcy, after which even these IOUs are worthless. Siphoning money out of Social Security via these IOUs in effect will just mean you were paying a higher, non-redeemable income tax all those years.
There are only two alternatives to the current SS problem: Dismantle it completely, or privatize it.
If it’s privatized, which ONLY Republicans want, it will turn into the worst corporate scam in human history – similar to what’s happened right now – since it’s been gutted from within. But with corporate ownership of these accounts, it will not only turn into scandal, there will be no way our stock or bond market will be able to properly fund them since the economy won’t be turning around any time soon.
Only in your mind is Social Security a problem Mark, and the scam takes a numer of forms you mention, and in the forms of Peterson and Koch brothers.
🙂 well explained.honestly, they are playing good cop bad cop routine
Steps To The Top
checked Rdan’s story. something to wonder.
Groupin Pakistan