Dry Ships Index– Question
Much is being made of the recent bottoming of the Dry Ships Index of bulk cargo rates.
Everyone assumes it is a signal of stronger demand.
But there are two reasons the index could be bottoming.
One is stronger demand.
But the other could be falling supply as the index represents the
loss minimization point where the ship owners lose less money
by docking the ships rather than by leasing them at this rate
because this leasing rate does not cover variable cost.
In other words the index could be bottoming because of
a contraction of supply rather than an increase in demand.
Does anyone have any information or data to support either thesis?