November 4 a watershed moment or not

by rdan

An opinion at Salon caught my attention….here is part of the main point:

As his campaign manager has described it, John McCain is now looking at a “narrow-victory scenario.” “The fact that we’re in the race at all,” added Steve Schmidt, “is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong.”

But talk of miracles and head winds aside, I think John McCain really does have a decent shot at winning, and that’s not just because I’m a longtime Republican political operative. Despite what the polls seem to be saying, a closer look at the numbers shows that a Democratic victory is not a foregone conclusion. Why? Because if history is any guide, Barack Obama, as an African-American candidate for political office, needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win. And in crucial battleground states, he isn’t.

I do not care about the “Bradley effect” chatter, I will be watching how the votes are counted in different states, either by per centages, provisional votes and possible challenges, and exit polling versus reported counts. What a race! More than meets the eye.