The industrial production report this morning was muddied by the auto parts strike. Overall
manufacturing output fell 0.8%, but excluding auto and auto parts manufacturing output fell
0.4%. Because the auto output is being distorted, and will generate a snapback of output when the strike ends, manufacturing output will not be giving clear signals for months.
To get around this I looked at manufacturing output excluding autos and auto parts. The compound, smoothed three month growth rate for this series is -2.0%. The three month growth rate of this series is a good, but not perfect recession indicator. But if the US is not going into a recession this was be the largest false signal this series has generated.