Cactus ran across this data and sent this chart along.

It implies two things to me.

One, the average duration of unemployment was much higher in this cycle then it was in the 1990s cycle. This is in line with all the other data showing the recent cycle to be weak by historic norms.

Two, the most recent drop in the median duration of employment implies to me that the odds of a recession are falling.

Do others reach the same conclusion?