Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

On Monetary Economics: Fischer Black v. Milton Friedman

Tyler Cowen discusses a view put forth by Fischer Black that challenged part of Milton Friedman’s monetarist view: why did both Milton Friedman and Bob Solow scorn him as a macroeconomist? Well, Fischer pushed two (actually more) controversial claims. First, the Fed cannot influence real or nominal variables, unless traders allow it to … Black’s […]

Help Wanted from Monster.com

When we discussed the Help Wanted Advertising Index, some of our readers wondered if this was really a good index. David Altig suggests a couple of alternatives.

Putin Tax: Back in the USSR

What did the Beatles mean by “I’m back in the USSR. You don’t know how lucky you are boys”? And why is the Club for Growth crowd arguing we should emulate Russian economic policy as in this tribute from Stephen Moore: All over the world, from Estonia, to Albania, to Russia to Hong Kong, flat […]

Housing, the Fed and M3

The Federal Reserve has been sounding the alarm: the housing market is on fire! It started with Kohn 4/22/2005. “Prices have gone up far enough since [a couple of years ago] relative to interest rates, rents, and incomes to raise questions; recent reports from professionals in the housing market suggest an increasing volume of transactions […]

Increase in the Dividend Yield and the Samwick Effect

Is Meg Richards confused as to the fundamentals of finance: With earnings growth on the decline, there’s renewed interest in what was once considered an old-fashioned investment. Dividends – regular payments to shareholders out of a company’s retained earnings – have long provided a boost to total return, and now analysts say they could help […]

A Security For Calculated Risk to Buy

In a series of posts CR of Calculated Risk, who posts here most Mondays, argued rather conviningly that there is a housing bubble (e.g., here, here, and here). Soon, he’ll have a chance to bet invest accordingly (WSJ-subscription): Robert Shiller knows bubbles, and he might have just the solution. The Yale University finance professor – […]

Fact Checking Kudlow’s Latest

While Andrew Samwick has joined the cottage industry of those who parse every word from Paul Krugman, I like this standard: Challenge every assertion of fact, provide evidence to support it, or change the language to reflect alternative explanations. If the Times won’t do that, then who needs the Times? But why stop with applying […]

Club for Growth: Savings = Taxation

Adam Doverspike reveals his “our way or the highway” view as he criticizes the attempt among Senate moderates to fashion a reasonable bipartisan approach to Social Security reform. He especially does not like add-on accounts: It seems that some big government Republicans are looking to “add-on” personal accounts, which is another way of saying “raising […]

The Increase in Gasoline Prices – Robert Novak Gets Something Almost Right

Ben Stein must pay a lot for gasoline: At my local gas station in Beverly Hills, self-service – yes, self-service – high test is now $3.22 a gallon, so I believe that the concern is real. The day the New York Times published his op-ed, I was purchasing gasoline at a nearby service station that […]

Help-Wanted Advertising Index Unchanged

The Conference Board reports some disappointing news: The Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Advertising Index – a key barometer of America’s job market – was unchanged in April. The Index now stands at 39. It was 38 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising declined in seven of the nine U.S. regions. Steepest declines […]