Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

More evidence for the re-emergence of residual seasonality in jobless claims, but still very positive

– by New Deal democrat  From 2023 through midyear 2025, there was a distinct pattern of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality to jobless claims, which rose in the first half of the year, and then declined in the second half. Beginning at the end of June last year, though, there was a “change of regime in jobless claims numbers,” […]