Yves Smith asks …I’ll throw it out to you: what do you deem the odds of Euro breakup to be (with “breakup” defined as at least one country exiting the Eurozone) in the next month? In the next six months? And if you think it will come apart, but later, guesstimate how much later and […]
by Rebecca WilderEuropean Daily Catch: Retail Sales Stabilizing? Today’s real retail sales gave the ECB and EU heads of state another reason to keep their fingers crossed for stability of the Euro area economy (.pdf of release). In January, volume adjusted retail sales increased 0.3% in the Euro area (EA) and broke a 4-month trend […]
Seems the austerity thingy is starting to hurt where it really counts. Just read via the AP: … and amid growing concern in Europe that austerity aimed at cutting ballooning deficits may also be choking growth. A dozen European Union leaders, including British Prime Minister David Cameron and Italian Premier Mario Monti, called Monday for […]
by Rebecca Wilder Expect Neither ‘Sustainable’ nor ‘Comprehensive’ From Euro Area Leaders On Sunday, Merkel and Sarkozy promised a “sustainable and comprehensive” solution to the euro debt crisis ahead of the November 3-4 G20 meeting. Along with this rather grand announcement are absolutely no details on their plan. However, Van Rompuy today pushed back the […]
O.K., Greece is now “high yield”, “junk”, “below investment grade”, at least according to S&P. What I mean by that is S&P now rates Greece’s foreign and local currency sovereign debt at the BB+ level (with a negative outlook), below the sometimes-coveted investment grade status, BBB- is the minimum. Why did S&P feel the need […]
I have been a Bad Blogger this week. (As opposed to my usual practice, which seems to be described as Blogging Badly.) While I intend to continue the New Tradition (think of me as Waylon, without the speed), following are Snow Day Links: D-Squared was on fire on Wednesday: both Bank Lending Channel and The […]
I feel like I am living in a “Choose Your Own Adventure” book. What global shock comes next? The air of uncertainty remains. This morning an imminent (but questionably so) bailout is across the news wires. From the WSJ: Germany is considering a plan with its European Union partners to offer Greece and other troubled […]
This week, the single most important event in global bond markets was the S&P downgrade of Greece’s long-term debt obligations, A- to BBB+. Moody’s is the last of the major rating agencies to hold Greek debt in the A-category of investment grade (currently at A1); but a major decision from Moody’s could come within weeks. […]