…demonstrated by 2021’s steep decline, they are both very likely the proverbial tip of the spear of future tariff effects. So, this morning I have discussed three data points: jobless…

…of businesses, are filled with mentions of tariffs. Note that the pessimism about tariffs stems from expecting their effects instead of witnessing them. As the economic effects of the tariffs…

“Distributional Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act” CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) analysis of the budgetary and distributional effects of…

…Boyle. ~~~~~~~ May 20, 2025 Dear Ranking Member Rep. Brendan Boyle: Today the Congressional Budget Office transmitted an estimate of the budgetary effects of the 2025 reconciliation bill, as ordered…

…the climate created by human-induced global warming are having and will continue to have long-term effects. Those effects, once thought to begin occurring sometime in the near future, are increasingly…

…consumer goods. (The government did buy some consumer goods for the various programs, plus there was a spillover effect, but as the graph clearly shows, the action was on the…

…for the various programs, plus there was a spillover effect, but as the graph clearly shows, the action was on the producer side.) After a bit of time, the public…

…that the US is aided by improving the competitiveness of MNEs in other countries–usually along the lines that helping them invest more abroad will also have a spillover effect in…

…January comes in second is probably a function of spillover from December – the Fed doesn’t always drain out the money supply as quickly as it might otherwise like. So……

…be preferred to investments with spillover effects into private industry (and therefore multipliers definitionally greater than 1.0). Warsh may never live down this piece, though economic historians may well find…