…price appreciation is greater than the decline in the mortgage interest rate (about 3% from the business cycle peak to the low point of mortgage interest rates in 2013) so…

…picture. I am not so convinced that 2001 was a big deal. Baker looks at the change of employment to prime age population from the peak. The 2000 peak was…

My previous post talked about how profits peaked 12 months ago coinciding with the economy hitting the effective demand limit. The idea is that profit margins will peak at the…

…to the right, there comes a point where aggregate demand equals effective demand. In figure 1, that point is modeled around $16,9 trillion. There profits would peak and the business…

As a recovery gets underway after a recession, wouldn’t it be nice to have an equation that would forecast the peak of the profit rate cycle? Well, below is one….

…shows how income growth has been distributed over the different business cycles (peak to peak, i.e., including both contractions and expansions). The data for the latest cycle is incomplete, as…

…peaked. They started a long plateau in 2005, making a 3 month peak in late 2005, with no meaningful progress thereafter. Second, quits peaked. They started to plateau in early…

…real median household income for men only is still below its peak from the early 1970s (h/t Mike Shedlock): All of the peaks since then, including the new peak for…

…has only covered one full business cycle, during that time hires have peaked and troughed before separations. And here, there has been an important revision. Here is the historical relationship…

…prior peak in the second halfof 2017 with its last monthly peak in October. Significantly, hiring for the previous month was revised downward below this peak. Meanwhile separations actually peaked…