…by several months. Here are the 4 week average of jobless claims (red) vs the unemployment rate (blue) for the past two years: I expect that the 3.5% unemployment rate…

…adjusts for the cost of living, yet only two have higher unemployment rates (France and Ireland), while the U.K.’s unemployment rate is the same. The table below illustrates this and…

…Street economists defend their forecasts, stating that ‘oil’ or ‘Europe’ are the primary risks to the outlook; or that the structural unemployment rate has risen markedly so that harmful inflation…

…money on unemployment benefits gets a very high rating. Extending unemployment benefits is a sensible move for a government when it is stretched for funds when economic growth is slow…

…unemployment rate as if it were constant. In the real world, unemployment will decline, although it might take decades (basically firms will have to start investing again when a lot…

…and the unemployment rate. It wouldn’t be a stretch to expect wage growth to fall further, given the sharp upward trajectory of the unemployment rate. There will likely be some…

rdan Again I apologize for simple links, but my time is being held hostage to circumstances. No one in the hubbub of today linked to Guerby’s post, so I thought…

…spending, consumer incomes and demand–“will make it impossible for US authorities to apply a fiscal and monetary stimulus large enough to return output and unemployment to tolerable levels within the…

Robert Waldmann I’m still thinking about Krugman’s excellent little model which gives the very clear result that optimal macro policy implies that unemployment is always at the natural rate and…

…is 5.4% annual. 2008 Q3 is looking more and more like a substantial contraction. With August unemployment at 6.1%, the Misery Index is 11.5, the highest since June 1991. OSO…