…personal consumption on goods tend to follow nearly identical trajectories. Thus the big difference is spending on goods vs. services. Here’s what that historical graph looks like: And here is…

…tend to trend similarly, below I show the historical record for the past 15+ years of both YoY real retail sales (dark blue) and YoY real personal spending on goods…

…translate into a stall or even downturn in goods-producing employment, which has held up surprisingly well in the past year.” – This month they again increased, with no indication of…

…entire value of all the goods we import each year is itself about $3 trillion. Not the tariffs, mind you, but the goods themselves.” In order to make up for…

…things were generally finished goods. Now, so much of the supply chain is so-called intermediate goods: parts that become parts of other parts. Famously, we know that a single auto…

…Goods producing jobs as a whole rose 25,000 to another new expansion high. These should decline before any recession occurs. Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late 2022, fell…

…and so on to work with. But it has fewer options aimed at increasing the supply of goods normally provided by private companies. And doing so tends to be slow…

…declined again back to that low. Manufacturing, and the trucking transportation used to deliver those goods, are both leading sectors, although the former in particular is less important than it…

…Finally, a quick note about the producer price index which was also released this morning. Like employment, goods prices are far more volatile than prices for services, which tend to…

…services (gray), which increased 0.2% in September. Final demand producer prices for goods (gold) declined -0.2%: On a YoY basis, goods prices are down -1.1%, while services prices are up…