…Let’s break down real spending on goods further, into durable vs. non-durable goods. At least one important historical recession model indicates that durable goods purchases turn down before non-durables. I…

…goods (gold), non-durable goods (red), and services excluding shelter (blue): The cost of durable goods had actually been undergoing *deflation* during most of 2023 and 2024, but the trend has…

…of gas prices, which peaked in June 2022. Real durable goods spending tends to turn before non-durable goods spending. The former rose 1.2% for the month, reversing about half of…

…pat 12 months will continue, or is flattening, is not at all clear. Another important component of the data is spending on goods, and in particular durable goods, which is…

…and on an even more granular basis on durable goods spending. In September real spending on goods (red) declined -0.4%, and on durable goods (gold) even more, by -0.6%: Because…

…than the nominal decrease reported here by that percentage… The decrease in our February exports of goods resulted from lower exports of capital goods, consumer goods, soybeans, and of automotive…

…goods prices rose 1.6% and the price index for final demand for services rose 0.9%, a revised 0.6% increase in December, when average prices for finished wholesale goods fell 0.1%,…

…of consumer goods, industrial supplies and materials, and capital goods were largely responsible for the April decrease in our imports. While those decreases were partly offset by an increase in…

…wholesale goods rose by 2.4% and final demand for services rose 1.2% and a revised 1.1% increase in February, when average prices for finished wholesale goods rose by 2.2%. Margins…

Keeping an Eye on Durable Goods Orders Today’s release of the data on durable goods orders for May showed a moderate drop of 1.6%, which is slightly surprising. Most economists…