The Hurricane/Picture of Dorian Gray: A Perfect Moral Storm in Three Texts Andreas Malm, Fossil Capital: The temporal aspect is particularly striking,’ writes philosopher Stephen Gardiner, who has done perhaps more than anyone to foreground it, in A Perfect Moral Storm: The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change: it catches us in a bind. Given that global warming […]
As of the second quarter the year over year percent change in real GDP is 2.3%. Virtually everyone refers to this as strong. Why? By historic standards 2.3% real GDP growth is subpar. It is below the long term growth rate of the economy using virtually any widely accepted estimate of trend or potential growth. […]
I was doing my usual reading in the internet world and ran across this comment to another commenter who claimed Labor Day is a made up holiday. A lot of history in this reply: “‘A made-up holiday that never had a great basis for its existence?’ How about the Ludlow Massacre where 57 miners were […]
Here is an especially self indulgent post. I think the useful part is this link to a Data For Progress poll showing current US public opinion is way to the left of the inside the beltway Overton Window. Most US adults support proposals which are seen as fringe left in official Washington. The presentation is […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly indicators for August 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.One of the benefits(?) of the discipline of a mechanical forecasting system is that it can be completely dissonant with what your emotions are telling you. Right now the discipline of my long/short leading/coincident […]
This is today’s topic largely because of an op-ed by Bret Stephens which is widely considered to be absolutely horrible. I haven’t read it. I want to bloviate about the issue and not just because I envy op-ed columnists. I will write after the jump, because I don’t have anything to say really.
The quick and dirty leading indicator watch has been stagnant for 18+ months [Note: I’ve been working on my “what leads consumer spending” opus, and as often happens, I don’t want to publish anything until I’m sure I’ve got something good – which means lots more research and saved graphs — and nothing whatsoever published! […]
Consumer spending leads employment — but what leads consumer spending? One relationship I have consistently flogged for the past decade is that consumer spending leads employment. That’s still true. Here is one of the graphs on that score going back over 50 years, the YoY% change, averaged quarterly, in real aggregate payrolls (blue) vs. real […]
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