Have we finally reached “full employment”? As I noted on Friday, the household report – the one that tells us about unemployment, underemployment, and labor force participation – was particularly good. In fact, the last two months together have been so good that, at least by some measures, we may finally have arrived at “full […]
The Repo Ruckus This is now about three weeks old news, but it is increasingly clear that it is not clear why it happened or if it will happen again. There was an outbreak of completely unexpected volatility in the repo market, where in the past the Fed had carried out open market operations, although […]
Opinion _ The Rich Really Do Pay Lower Taxes Than You – The New York Times Watch how radically taxes on the wealthy have fallen over the past 70 years: (Full column: https://t.co/XP0a4Iljti) pic.twitter.com/dGxmOjQ1b5 — David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt) October 7, 2019
Why Is Iraq Blowing Up Now? Yes, Iraq. It has not made front page headlines with so much else going on, but over the last several days there has been an escalating series of protests against corruption in various parts of Iraq and culminating yesterday in Baghdad with one being met by soldiers firing openly […]
September jobs report: excellent in coincident and lagging sectors, cautionary in leading sectors HEADLINES: +136,000 jobs added (+135,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% from 3.7% to 3.5% (NEW LOW) U6 underemployment rate declined -0.3% from 7.2% to 6.9% (NEW LOW) Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many […]
2nd whistleblower comes forward after speaking with IG: Attorney The appearance of a second whistleblower will muddy the waters for Herr Trump claiming the first whistleblower got his conversation all wrong. The existence of a second whistleblower — particularly one who can speak directly about events involving the president related to conversations involving Ukraine — […]
Does Bob Barr Need It in Writing? I think we all know AG Barr lied about the Mueller report but permit me to go back to this: The moment Attorney General William Barr laid eyes on a letter from special counsel Robert Mueller criticizing Barr’s summary of his two-year investigation, he knew his goose was cooked. […]
“Trump’s Executive Order is Backdoor Privatization of Medicare,” Social Security Works, Nancy Altman, October 3, 2019 Thursday and I had to search around for someone who is an expert on Medicare Advantage Plans and Original Medicare. Nancy is one of those experts. Friday and Andrew Sprung has his commentary Trump’s Bid To Destroy Medicare up […]
Despite all the recent stock market volatility the actual S&P 500 PE on trailing operating earnings is almost exactly where my model says it should be. The biggest problem is that the market PE is about 19 and bond yields are under 2%. The quick and dirty rule of thumb is that a 100 basis […]