…make. We see the same lack of prima facie evidence looking at the time-series data. The following picture shows the annual growth rate of private fixed nonresidential investment – i.e.,…

…is matched by Net Foreign Investment. But we need to look at the relationship more closely. Which one is driving the other? Does a trade deficit simply determine the amount…

…clear that if I pull such a stunt off, the law won’t look kindly upon me. The same is true if we’re talking about gold deposits under ground. Assuming neither…

…prices have turned positive YoY, most recently up about 25%. Q4 2016 data on wages has been released, giving us a chance to take an updated look. We have a…

by Mike Kimel The Effect of Individual Income Tax Rates on the Economy, Part 5: 1968 – 1988 This post is the fourth in a series that looks at the…

…feel like I could simply repost my retail sales piece from one month ago, because the story is the same: at first glance, May’s retail sales report, like April’s, looks…

…know about causation. We don’t know what to do about this problem, so we almost all do the simplest thing which is look at timing — the cause comes before…

…not look at impact on wages. I wonder what predisposes us to first think of ‘too lazy’ versus ‘low wages’ or such as first thought? And given the lack of…

…post at Financial Armageddon I learnt of a paper looking at the relationship of austerity implementation and social unrest. It is recent, dated August 2011. Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts…

…point of this post… Instead, I want to look at the relationship between the price of oil and the number of oil rigs, and how that relationship has changed over…