Robert Waldmann Something odd seems to be happening in US public opinion. Pollsters are shifting from polls of registered voters to polls of likely voters. Given demographics and the enthusiasm gap, I expected the Republican lead in the House generic ballot to increase. Until recently, that seemed to be happening right on schedule. Since then […]
With thanks to Felix Salmon for arranging the invitation. There’s an episode of House where he has to get rid of one of the people for his new team. By the end of the episode, the sharpest person in the group has said everything that we would have expected to hear from House—and is therefore […]
NBER just made official what we all knew they would say: the Great Recession ended in June of 2009. For those who are encouraged, note that they also do not indicate that there was a recession from March of 1933 to May of 1937, that the eighteen (18) months indicated is the longest since 1929-1933, […]
originally posted at Calculated Riskre-posted with permission from the author Dan here…there might be a lot of noise about no increase due to cost of living adjustment (cola), but here is part one of three excellent posts on why it works this way for no inflation: Update: Updated links and formatting made 3:00 PM. Calculated […]
In a NY Times op-ed, Rob Parenteau and Yves Smith reminded us that the private sector financial balance is a function of the household financial balance and the corporate financial balance. They concluded the following regarding excess corporate saving: So instead of pursuing budget retrenchment, policymakers need to create incentives for corporations to reinvest their […]
Robert Waldmann In the New York Times Amy Harmon has a long and fascinating article on the ethics of medical experiments on humans. She considers the argument that it is unethical to have a control group which doesn’t get the wonderful new experimental treatment. I just note that the ethical rule imposed by the FDA […]
Robert Waldmann I am generally reluctant to make predictions. However, I am willing to predict that the cost of TARP will be less than forecast by the CBO. I should point out that forecasts of the cost have declined. The reason is that the CBO values TARP assets at “fair market value” which means the […]
Robert Waldmann Worthwhile Canadian point. Nick Rowe looks at Catherine Rampell’s graph, which everyone has been talking about, and notes the dog that didn’t bark. Very few small businessmen are complaining about the quality of labor. This basically proves that the argument that the incerase in unemployment is due to missmatch is wrong. If the […]
The point of the first chart, I believe, is that as our navel power decreases Chinese navel power increases. But that aspect needs to be described carefully as the chart does not explain the differences in navies between the two countries. The point of the second chart is to demonstrate the conundrum of manpower expenses […]
The Economist 28 Aug 2010 unattributed article: Updated correct link: link to article is here, h/t Movie Guy The chronic problem of exorbitantly expensive weapons is becoming acute. Robert Gates, America’s defence secretary, has ordered that production of the F-22 should end this year, capping the fleet at 187—a final cull for the Raptor, whose […]