Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Social Security: the Shape of Solvency

Well lets try again (two hours of draft having just disappeared)/ The above figure is II.D6 from the 2011 Social Security Report. The reasons why I didn’t use the 2013 version will become clear later, short version is it doesn’t show ‘The Shape of Solvency’ while the longer version is, well, long. This figure shows […]

But the exchanges aren’t working

My question is what can an angrybear do to help people who received a scary letter from their insurance company informing them that their mininsurance is cancelled and offering them a chance to pay 10 times as much. I think it is easy to provide useful links. So I will soon consider the case of […]

Go merge yourself

Who knew? TAX WIZARDRY THROUGH AN OFFBEAT MERGER Classic tax shelters used in the 1990s have become unattractive to most companies, thanks to enforcement actions by the Internal Revenue Service, coupled with changes in accounting and reporting requirements, Victor Fleischer writes in DealBook. Yet executives and tax directors have found other ways to avoid taxes […]

How the Democrats Should Deal With the AnthemBlueCrossCare Issue. Really.

Today, the House of Representatives will take up GOP Rep. Fred Upton’s proposal to ”fix” Obamacare by undermining it, and the vote is being widely cast on a referendum on whether Dems will continue distancing themselves from the law. Meanwhile Senate Dems are also still considering fixes of their own that could undermine it, though […]

Update to potential GDP and effective demand

The 3rd quarter labor share number came out yesterday. I was expecting 96 to 96.4. The number is 96. Here is the update for effective demand and potential GDP. Potential GDP (center of the business cycle) is still cruising right on the lower trend line. Stable and consistent. It has actually decreased some. Effective demand […]

Capacity Utilization Telling a Strange Story

Capacity utilization is telling a very unusual story. Information technology –computers & peripherals, communication equipment and semiconductors — is operating at recession levels. Part of the story is import tablets and smart phones displacing personal computers. But there has to be more to the story. Meanwhile, the rest of industry appears to be operating at […]

TPP links

Wikileaks reveals one chapter of 29 chapters, 5 on trade. Via wikipedia Fast_track (trade) means… Crooks and Liars points to key issues: The longest section of the Chapter – ’Enforcement’ – is devoted to detailing new policing measures, with far-reaching implications for individual rights, civil liberties, publishers, internet service providers and internet privacy, as well […]

TPP and a bit of history

From Thomas Dewar, Public Citizen News release: Quote: “… Also fueling congressional opposition to Fast Track is the abysmal outcome of the Obama administration’s only major trade pact to date, the U.S.-Korea FTA, which is the template for the TPP.  In contrast to Obama’s promises that the Korea deal would boost exports, in the agreement’s […]