We are seeing a resurgence of effective demand from both long term yields (borrowing costs) and headline inflation falling. What if 10-year yields fall to 1.6% by 2nd quarter 2015? And what if headline inflation falls to -0.5% by 2nd Q too? (Barclays is predicting negative headline inflation through 2015, Matthew B tweet.) I graph […]
Dan here…Angry Bear Mike Kimel addressed the issue of politics and economic growth in his book Presimetrics. Paul Krugman has as well in the last several weeks. Nathan Salminem takes another look. The post will be divided into three parts at Angry Bear, but can be read in its entirety here. Guest post by Nathan Salminen (is […]
Dan here…Via the LA Times and LA Times and Common Dreams comes information on the first day of the new Congress on Social Security. Old ideas re-emerge in the variety of coverage in media. Here is an excerpt on the issue. According to: Nancy Altman and Eric Kingson, authors of the book Social Security Works! and […]
I have been pinged @Noahpinion @sjwrenlewis also pinging @interfluidity @robertwaldmann @Frances_Coppola and anyone else who wants to get involved. — Michael Harris (@MichaelH_PhD) January 7, 2015 and am so flattered to be pinged in such company that I decided I had to read the Jeff Sachs article on Krugman Austerity and the Obama recovery and […]
The business cycle is being incredibly extended with the Fed rate at the ZLB. Effective demand is increased. But in the end, the effects of a low Fed rate cannot keep the business cycle from closing in on the effective demand limit and ending. It can slow down the process, but it cannot reverse the […]
Via CBS news Mark Thoma addresses some coming issues in Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Tax Committee in Do tax cuts pay for themselves? Now that Republicans have taken control of the House and Senate, they are pushing to change how the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Tax Committee (JTC) evaluate tax […]
Via Washington Post‘s Phillip Bump comes some interesting graphs on the gender, race, and religious composition of our new Congress: The 114th Congress, which gets to “work” on Tuesday, is one of the most diverse in American history…
This is a pointless follow up post to this post which got some attention. As suggested by New Keynesian models, the old post considered G — government consumption plus investment. Here I am going to look at total expenditures (including transfers) and total revenues. Also I will consider only the Federal Government (due to FRED […]
by Joseph Joyce Tales of Globalization: Russia and China The end of 2014 marked the 23rd anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the establishment of the Russian Federation. Like Chinese leaders in the previous decade, Russian policymakers faced the challenge of integrating their nation into the global economy. Russia’s trade openness (exports […]