Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Why Are We Not Keeping Track Of The Dead From Hurricane Harvey?

Why Are We Not Keeping Track Of The Dead From Hurricane Harvey? It is not surprising that as Hurricane Harvey has finally moved off the Atlantic coast and is over, and the flood waters recede in the various places that it caused damage, it is unsurprising that reporting has moved onto the inside pages of […]

Sessions, Krugman, DACA and the Lump-of-Labor Fallacy

Now may be a good time to remind people that there can be bad arguments for good causes. There may even be good arguments for bad causes. Sessions is wrong: The effect of this unilateral executive amnesty, among other things, contributed to a surge of unaccompanied minors on the southern border that yielded terrible humanitarian […]

From the Onion to the Times of London… And Back Again to be added soon

Jô Soares, a well known Comedian turned political commentator (think Al Franken but not in the Senate) in Brazil, used to do a recurring skit about a former general who woke up from a coma. The rib was, the general had gone into the coma while the country was still ruled by a military junta. […]

The August jobs report smacked of late cycle deceleration

The August jobs report smacked of late cycle deceleration As promised, here is my abbreviated and late take on this morning’s employment report. While the additions to temporary positions (a leading indicator for jobs overall), and construction, and manufacturing jobs were welcome, this report sure looked like late cycle deceleration. The YoY% growth in jobs […]

Trump Labor Policy

Trump Labor Policy  by Noam Scheiber via NYT: In June, Labor Secretary R. Alexander Acosta announced the withdrawal of two prominent Obama administration guidances — documents that do not change the law but indicate how a department interprets it and can influence employers. The first had clarified when a worker could be classified as an […]

NAWRU constructive (?) proposals

I have vigorously criticized the European Community DG EcFin approach to estimating the non accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment (NAWRU). This is a step in their estimation of output gaps, which, in turn, are used to set allowed deficits for member countries under the Stability and Growth Pact. The calculations are critically important. Marco […]