I am still trying to wrap my head around the coronavirus disaster. Here is some current thinking . . . The immediate cause of the economic slowdown is a collapse in both demand and supply due to social isolation. This will have at least two knock-on effects. First, the initial collapse in economic activity will […]
We do not know how severe the covid-19 epidemic will be or how much economic and social pain it will cause, but it clearly has the potential to kill hundreds of thousands or even millions of Americans, and the economic consequences could include a deep recession and even a financial crisis that will cause misery […]
The day before yesterday, the Fed made a somewhat unusual announcement of $500,000,000,000 of REPO offers a day for three days in a row. The idea was to let banks unload risky assets before they panicked nipping a financial crisis in the bud. This move was controversial. Unfortunately many critics act as if the Fed […]
Before the recent swoon stock market market performance under Trump had been quite favorable. The market gain since his inauguration (100) had been (144) similar to those under Clinton (141) and Obama (150). At this point Ike actually had the best return ( 170) but Ike and Truman are not included in the chart because […]
Where is the puzzling growth in service jobs coming from? Continuing with my week of follow-up stories based on last Friday’s jobs report, I noted last Friday that there was a completely anomalous upwards revision of nearly 100,000 jobs in the last 8 months of 2019. This after a -500,000 decrease, based on full data, […]
December 2012, Robert Reich wrote about America’s children . . . Remember the Children. “America’s children seem to be shortchanged on almost every issue we face as a society. Not only are we failing to protect our children from deranged people wielding semi-automatic guns. We’re not protecting them from poverty. The […]
by New Deal democrat My “official” first half forecast for 2020 My short term 6 month forecast has been posted at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and puts un poco dinero in my pocket.
Spoiler alert: maybe. The surprising success of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential bid, widespread protests against Trump, and the election of a number of highly progressive candidates in the 2018 midterms all seem to suggest a progressive turning point in American politics. At the very least, the intellectual stranglehold of right-wing economic ideas on our political […]
“Teacher of the Year‘ kneels during college football championship attended by Trump,”ABC News, January 16, 2020 During a ceremony honoring the 2019 “Teachers of the Year,” one in particular stood out. The honoree from Minnesota, Kelly Holstine, chose to kneel during the national anthem at the NCAA football championship game on Monday, where the ceremony […]
Different bloggers have been posting their favorite charts of 2019 this January. So I decided to post my favorite chart of the past 20, or more, “years of the long bond yield versus the long run trend.” Bond yields are now below their long run trend and may be at or near a secular bottom. […]