Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Dueling May jobs reports: establishment report strong, household report pre-recessionary.

Dueling May jobs reports: establishment report strong, household report pre-recessionary  – by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators  continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate. The establishment side of the report was strong, with most leading indicators improving. […]

The Post Office Can Bring People-Centered Public Banking to Every ZIP Code

The private banking industry either can’t or won’t do what needs to be done to stop preying on vulnerable people. The Post Office Can Bring People-Centered Public Banking to Every ZIP Code, Inequality.org, Anni Norman, Aditi Sen, May 2023. The need for a public banking option is urgent. Nearly 10 million households, a disproportionate number […]

Intensified decline in manufacturing, but another sign of a bottom in residential construction

Intensified decline in manufacturing, but another sign of a bottom in residential construction  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago. The ISM manufacturing index has a 75 year record of being a very reliable leading indicator. According to the […]

New and improved initial claims! Now including comparison to Sahm Rule

New and improved initial claims! Now including comparison to Sahm Rule  – by New Deal democrat I’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with and leads the Sahm Rule. Just in case you’re not familiar with the Sahm Rule, it is a rule of […]

Debt Ceiling Agreement better than House Bill, Harmful Provisions still Remain

There are many things which could be cut in the present Debt Ceiling bill which alleviate the unnecessary need to cut assistance to those who need it. Food assistance for very low-income older adults is not one of them. A million or so of older adults aged 50-54 will or are now at risk of […]

April JOLTS report noisily shows continued deceleration

New Deal democrat has been doing JOLTS reports for a long time. Some of you may understand what NDd is discussing and some may not. Just a quick one liner to help you understand why this is important. JOLTS is a monthly survey of U.S. job vacancies, hiring, and job separations released by the Bureau […]

May 30, 2023 – Letters from an American

What looked like it could be catastrophic for the nation, its people, and its economy, the results coming from a so-called too old eighty-year old man negotiating the US budget appears to be far better than expected. And far better than what Repubs are offering up. Now it is up to the House to put […]

House prices may have bottomed, YoY price increases (leading inflation) have declined

House prices may have bottomed, while YoY price increases (leading inflation) have declined to lower than their 25-year average  – by New Deal democrat Seasonally adjusted house prices through March as measured by both the FHFA (light blue in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (dark blue) Indexes rose, the former by 0.7% and the […]

What Happened To Paying Off The National Debt?

A week ago, this commentary by Bill McBride was up on Calculated Risk. A bit of history dating back to 2001. A very timely post and one which fits in with what was happening today with the National Debt. Take note of who was pushing less stringent regulation, tax cuts, etc. It will pay for […]

The Relative Value Scale Update Committee is secretly setting physician prices

I should have plaque on the wall of some hospitals stating I was there and we (the hospital) made out like bandits. Some of the procedures and meds they do and give me are not in your average Tylenol category. Not much I can do about it. Merril at GoozNews posted this exposé on how […]