by Joseph Joyce Growth in the Emerging Market Economies In recent decades the global economy has been transformed by the rise of the emerging market economies. Their growth lifted millions out of poverty and gave their governments the right to call for a larger voice in discussions of international economic governance. Therefore it is of […]

Menzie Chinn wrote about various ways to estimate potential GDP. It becomes perplexing when an estimation shows that the output gap could be zero. Why? Because there are such weak inflation pressures… “That seems implausible to me, but then, so too does a nearly zero gap, given the lagging inflation rate.” – Menzie Chinn The […]

Since December of 2014, I have been tweeting that the Dow will orbit around an attractor level around 17,300… “Dow is in what I see as stable part of weightless orbit around 17,200… waiting for Fed communications” — Edward Lambert (@wisegrowth) December 17, 2014 “Dow heading toward attractor zone of 17,200 to 17,300 that I […]

by Joseph Joyce The Continuing Dominance of the Dollar: A Review of Cohen’s “Currency Power” Every year I choose a book that deals with an important aspect of globalization, and award it the Globalization Book of the Year, also known as the “Globie.” Unfortunately, there is no cash prize to go along with it, so […]

One who makes comments on Angry Bear, William Ryan, said… “Besides I thought we have been in a slump since 2008 haven’t we?( I guess it depends on what sector of the economy we are talking about)” What sector has been in a slump? Middle and low incomes. Wages have been barely rising. Under-employment is […]

From what I read, nobody has pointed out the drop in Nonfarm Business Sector: Hours of All Persons in the 3rd quarter. (seasonally adjusted) The index of hours decreased from 110.66 to 110.53. This is actually noteworthy… Nonfarm Business Sector: Hours of All Persons since 1967. (link to graph) You can see that hours increase […]

For Profit Goes on Probation The University of Phoenix has been placed on probation by the Department of Defense preventing the university from recruiting on military bases. The probation comes after the Federal Trade Commission and the California Attorney General’s investigation into the University of Phoenix recruiting methods, its high costs, and the resulting poor […]

The Fed rate… What is going on with the Fed rate? The Fed say they would like to raise it in December. Others say they should wait. Using an Effective Demand Version of the IS-LM curve In a normal IS-LM model, the interest rate is on the y-axis and output on the x-axis. The following […]

Naked Capitalism…Full Text of TPP, Including Annexes, and Boy is it Nasty Here are several links to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement just released: Full test for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement Washingtom Post searchable TPP text Financial Times…Breaking down 5 big sections of the TPP Vox…Here is what you need to know

Yes, demand is high for safe assets and this is in part driving down interest rates. Labor share is the key to solving the issue. Briefly… Labor share is fallen in the US and other advanced countries, including China. Inequality of income has widened. The excess money at the top is driving the demand for […]