When the second quarter real GDP report was published I saw that trade made a major contribution to growth — exports contributed 1.12 percentage points of the 4.1% real GDP growth. But that seemed like some sort of fluke produced by unusual conditions rather that what trend growth would generate. Moreover, the BEA estimate was […]
Click this link. Data For Progress decided to ask people about policy proposals which very serious centrists consider way too far left for America. American voters respond differently. As should already be clear from existing polls (click and search for “fair”), there is strong support for egalitarian populist redistributive public policy. At Data For Progress, […]
(Dan here…I thought I should pass this along for NDd) by New Deal democrat Midyear update: long leading forecast through H1 2019 at Seeking Alpha My midyear update of the 8 long leading indicators, taking the forecast all the way through the middle of next year, is up at Seeking Alpha.Not only is it informative, but […]
Is The World’s Largest Planned IPO Kaput? That would the long planned and widely advertised IPO to sell 5% Saudi-government-owned ARAMCO, estimated at being worth US $2 trillion, making the planned IPO being at about $100 billion, well ahead of any that has happened in the past, the largest being $25 billion by AliBaba. This […]
Germany Organizing Anti-Trump Coalition Mark Thoma th other day links to a story in Der Spiegel about a visit to Japan by new German Foreign Minister, Heike Maas. He met with PM Shinzo Abe, and apparently the two of them agreed on the need for creating a network of like-minded nations that wish to maintain […]
The Soybean Boom Via TalkingPointsMemo AP notes: Private forecasters cautioned that the April-June pace is unsustainable because, they say, it stems from temporary factors, including a rush by exporters of soybeans and other products to get their shipments out before retaliatory tariffs took effect. They predicted the rest of the year is likely to see solid, but […]
Along with the second quarter GDP report the BEA also published the results of its regular revision of the last five years of data. The most significant revision was to the measure of price changes in the high tech arena. This showed that business investment had been somewhat stronger than previously reported, but it only […]
(Dan here….Lifted from comments here) Spencer says: You can download the most recent GDP in excell form directly from the BEA. In the 2nd quarter exports accounted for 1.12 percentage points of the 4.1% surge in real GDP. That is almost 30% of growth. Apparently the big jump in exports was due to large purchases […]
Q2 GDP: likely as good as it is going to get this year [Note: FRED hasn’t gotten around to updating the GDP data. I’ll update this post once the graphs are available. UPDATE: Posted now.] This morning’s preliminary reading of Q2 2018 GDP at +4.1% was generally in line with forecasts. The coincident data, as […]
Has Trump Won This Easy Trade War With Our Greatest Foe, The European Union? So Sean Hannity would have us believe this evening after the press conference earlier today by Trump and EU Commissioner Jean-Claude Juncker. According to Hannity they have signed a “deal” that will help US businesses, workers, and farmers. Yowzah! As it […]