Parsing the Poland Problem Paradox: Local Versus National Outcomes As argued in numerous posts here, we have seen an apparently emerging disconnect between economic conditions and political outcomes in a variety of nations, with anti-immigrant or more generally nationalist or populist parties with authoritarian tendencies gaining strength in many nations despite apparently improving or even […]
A note on December existing home sales First of all, sorry for the light posting this week. There’s not much news until tomorrow and Friday, and yesterday was a travel day. So….. While existing home sales are about 90% of the entire housing market, they are the least important economically, because of their much more […]
Is Trump’s Washing Machine Tariff To Punish South Korea For Being Too Friendly With North Korea? I have seen nobody claim this, and this may simply be a matter of collateral damage, as Trump has officially approved of the recent openings related to the forthcoming Winter Olympics in South Korea, especially since South Korean President […]
Recent increased interest rates probably won’t derail housing In the last couple of weeks, long term interest rates have moved significantly higher. As of yesterday, the 10 year bond closed at roughly 2.66%, its highest yield in 3 1/2 years. If this move is sustained for a few months, I expect it to have an […]
Amazon scores two more $5+ billion bids A non-blogging friend points me to the announcement today of Maryland’s subsidy bidthat puts Montgomery County into one of the 20 finalist slots. Shockingly, Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) put in a bid that would pay Amazon almost the entire cost of its facility, depending on what you think a proper […]
(Dan here…late to post at AB…more on the way) by Kenneth Thomas Amazon moves closer to breaking the bank with “HQ2” Yesterday (Jan. 18), Amazon announced the 20 finalists for its “HQ2” project, that will supposedly create a second headquarters (why?) for the company somewhere in North America, most likely in the United States. With an alleged […]
Mother Jones tells the story here in graphic detail. The GOP’s Biggest Charter School Experiment Just Imploded How a washed-up lobbyist built a charter school empire and siphoned millions from public schools. “Now, with ECOT imploding, some state politicians have floated the idea that Lager, who has made millions in profits off the school and […]
The intensity of Fed rate hikes as a precursor to recessions Between 1931 and the mid-1950s, the yield curve never inverted, and yet there were 5 recessions (1938, 1945, 1948, 1950, and 1954). In particular, the 1938 “recession within the depression” was one of the worst of the 20th century. So in a low inflation […]
For the first time since the Great Recession my wage equation says average hourly earnings growth should be higher than the actual data shows. Moreover, the fitted value is rising sharply. Each of the three variables in the equation — the unemployment rate, capacity utilization and inflation expectations — is now pushing the fitted value […]
Lifted from comments on the post Our thoughts and opinions are with you, reader Mark Jamison writes: Comment: The filibuster is fundamentally undemocratic in a body that is already constructed undemocratically. The filibuster is an accident of history that has weaponized in the last twenty years. Yes, in particular circumstances it seems like a firewall […]