Nate Silver is all the rage, but when Dean Baker tweeted “Excellent #WAPO article” I had to read it. To me the hero of the article is a meta analyst who used data collected by others to discover that Avandia causes increased risk of heart attacks. Meta analysis, and the name is Nissen. To see whether his […]
Andrew C. Thomas asks about Silver’s uncertainty estimates. (via @nikete) My very confident guess was that Silver’s forecasts were too cautious — that his probability estimates were too close to 50 %, that he underestimated the precision of his point forecasts. It is actually easy to check my hypothesis (not that I did) by looking at […]
It is now clear that the calculations Nate Silver made just before the election were a better guide to what was about to happen than Joe Scarborough’s gut or the voices in Peggy Noonan’s head. This is not a high bar to clear. Many other poll aggregators made similar predictions. However, Silver’s performance this year […]
The 2012 Presidential is so close just so close that not only do different polls show different results but different averages of polls do. OK it is clear that extremely fancy models such as the fivethirtyeight model which attempt to assign undecideds and use state data to estimate the national vote and vice versa are […]
I am going to try to explain the fundamental difference between federal investment GM and federal loan guarantees. This is politically important, because the Obama administration invested in GM by buying shares of new GM*. Romney denounced this and said that the Federal government should guarantee private sector loans rather than invest directly. The argument […]
I was looking for something else, but in the latest poll the ARRA has become popular http://www.pollingreport.com/budget.htm United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Sept. 7-9, 2012. N=1,012 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.7. Asked of those who have heard about the program:“From what you have seen or […]
To err is human to persevere is diabolical. ORC and CNN have done it again. Delighted by the success of their instant poll on the Presidential debate, they did an identical poll of the Vice Presidential debate. They report results for a sample of 381 (is that the smallest sample ever for a national poll […]
Posted without comment (via mistermix at balloon juice)
OK this isn’t up to Lewison production standards in fact not up to any production standards, but here is Romney vs Romney on how to evaluate records on employment Romney on Romney’s record of an employment decline followed by a slow increase (Via American Bridge Via Daily Kos) Five minutes searching for Romney on Obama’s record […]
On the off chance that anyone reads Angrybearblog but doesn’t read The Daily Kos I am posting the absolutely must not be missed youtube video of Mitt Romney debating Mitt Romney edited by Jed Lewison at The Daily Kos