Here I  analyze the data set used by Reinhart and Rogoff (R-R) and by Herndon Ash and Pollin (HAP) in their critique and in particular the stata data set RR-processed.dta with data on public debt to GDP ratios and real GDP growth in 20 developed countries since 1946. I show evidence that low growth causes […]

Mark Thoma once claimed to be pleased that I was shrilly criticizing him.  I sure hope he meant it, because here I go again.  HeUpdate: I have trouble with reading comprehension.  A one syllable name was too hard.  I am commenting on Tim Duy who posted at Mark Thoma’s site.  I apologize for the mistake. […]

Simon Wren-Lewis wrote I think there were three important contributory factors to what happened in the 1970s that are just not present today. First, our knowledge of inflation output trade-offs, although hardly complete now, was much weaker back then. Second, the Fed and other monetary policy makers did not have clear inflation targets that they were […]

Josh Marshall has a post entitled “Just Crazy”.  As usual I agree with some of what Marshall writes.  In this case, I think the post is just crazy.  In it he quotes “TPM reader AN” with approval who wrote (among other things) …is there significant and recent precedent of an Administration refusing to enforce a duly […]

Mainly an open thread and effort to see if I can still post using blogger. But I have very strongly the impression that countries which default on their debts do relatively well after the default.  Default is associated with horrible economic performance, but I think this is because default is caused by horrible economic performance. […]

Ezra Klein has an even more interesting than usual column on feverish demand for the services of Obama campaign data wonks. After Obama’s reelection, former adviser David Axelrod recalls that “one of the first calls I got was, ‘Who are the young geniuses? We want to find out if we can hire thwe”[skip]it’s the tech […]

Scott Sumner (via Matt Yglesias) has a very impressive graph of breakeven inflation rates for yen denominated vs inflation protected securities in Japan (which seems to have something to do with Fathom Consulting just to cite).  It shows a marked increase from around 0% to around 0,8% from early February 2011 to  late April 2011. […]

Not up to Angrybear standards so click the link to my hall of shame.

Dylan Matthews reports fascinating research which contrasts state legislators’ estimates of their constituents views on some key issues with polling data on those views.  David Broockman and Christopher Skovron find that liberal politicians overestimate their constituents conservativeness and conservative politicians vastly overestimate their constituents conservativeness.  The post is too good do summarize so just click […]

Translated Jiminy Crickets. Really translated. Man, covering this Grillo dude is a full time job.  I figured I should check what he said today.  He has a new idea — Prime Minister Grillo so since the election (monday) he’s said 1) “Niente inciuci.”  Translated: “No deals.”  Really translated “The old discredited parties have to form […]