I’ve decided to look at US economic aggregates using theory and statistical methods which were popular in the 1960s. I have long told students that the model of investment which best fits the data is the now ancient flexible accelerator. This is just a reduced form equation without theory. It just says that the ratio […]
It’s that number again. As noted by Dylan Scott at TPM, according to the latest Pew poll 27% of US adults think that the Republican party “is more willing to work with the other party” than the Democratic party. For earlier appearances of 27% see Kung Fu Monkey John: Hey, Bush is now at 37% […]
Would you believe one fourth full ? No how about one tenth full ? How about not as dry as the Sahara desert ? Recently I asked the question. Keynes dismissed the PIH (well before it re-emerged) as follows when discussing consumption in Chapter 8 of The General Theory … (6) Changes in expectations of […]
John Quiggin provides an excellent discussion of macroeconomics. It is much too good to summarize. Just click the link and read. Paul Krugman is also (as usual) brilliant. In particular, I fear he understands the sociology of the profession. I have some comments on Quiggin.
This is one of my usual boring posts on the same things I often type about. I have nothing much new to say and certainly won’t present any new evidence. There is no good reason to click “more.” In case anyone hasn’t guessed my answer, it is that I know of no good reason to […]
Matthew Yglesias reports another dramatic study providing evidence against the safety net as hammock hypothesis. The argument that just giving poor people cash helps in the short run but hurts in the long run by creating dependency is extremely influential. The evidence supports the opposite conclusion. Here I note Yglesias noting Moises Velazquez-Manoff noting another […]
Just click the link I don’t have anything interesting to add. My problem is that I can’t help thinking of whether Konczal’s criticisms amount to a credible accusation of impropriety. I have tried not to blog this, but really can’t resist. At the end of 2012, David Beckworth told the Keynesians they were wrong. In […]
I once decided not to do this, but I’m dumping a comment here. Brad DeLong thinks about Larry Summers and secular stagnation, Olivier Blanchard and higher inflation targets and Ryan Avent here. I can’t summarize his post but I comment here.
Following John Quiggin, I have been an enthusiast for a US Sovereign Wealth Fund for years. My proposal is simply that the Us government should buy 10% of US equities. That would be 10% of shares of every listed corporation (this portfolio massively outperforms the S&P 500 ) I add that I am not fully […]
The post is too good to excerpt so just go read it. To edit ruthlessly 1. The business cycle is not symmetric. [skip] 2. As much as the NBER methodology emphasizes the notion of recessions (which, by the way, is asymmetric in nature), most academic research is produced around models where small and frequent shocks […]