Jon Chait has a great time with Paul Ryan and someone named McCay Coppins who asserted (without feeling any need to present evidence) that Chait is a “rabid” critique of Paul Ryan. Do click the link and read the whole post. You won’t regret it. (Don’t you hate the way the internet makes it possible […]
Kevin Drum tells readers to always click the link. His latest post is well worth reading. I don’t have much to add (I wrote a comment over there).
I have been playing with the Livingston survey economic forecasts and, in particular, with the median forecast of CPI inflation over the following 6 and 12 months. The survey was conducted each June and December since June 1946. For some reason, the data are available in two files one with forecasts made December 2003 and […]
Hostages to fortune Recently, I wrote a note on expected inflation in the USA. One of the two sources of data I used was the Livingston survey of expert forecasters. I used the median forecasts of the CPI 6 and 12 months ahead from the start of the survey in 1946 through 2003, when the […]
In case anyone is interested, I put together a lot of stuff I have been doing with inflation expectations into a soft of manuscript here (warning 19 poorly written pages) The conclusions Inflation expectations are not anchored. A simple regression model fits both the median Livingston Survey respondent’s expected CPI inflation and five year TIPS […]
Of course Carter’s approach to dealing with energy did not consist only with eliminating the insane regulation keeping US crude oil prices below world crude oil prices. Totally aside from (and opposite too) freeing the market, he also subsidized potential new sources of energy. As I recalled correctly, he focused particularly on “shale oil” and […]
Mike Konczal explains that Ted Cruz’s claim that the current situation is similar to the 70s is utterly insane. He wrote a brilliant article do click and read. I was sent there from a fun post by Steve Benen following angry bear Mike Kimel, stealing candy from babies and correcting Rand Paul’s arithmetic. However, he […]
It’s only April and I am getting poll addicted already. Sorry to bother you, but I’d like to update my views on some Pollsters whom I suspect of Republican bias (in the statistical sense).
Yesterday, I noted that an expectations un-augmented Phillips curve fits data from the past two decades rather well. Here is an even simpler illustration of the point that lagged price inflation has not correlated with wage inflation for the past two decades. The figure is a scatter of lgwinfl — the percent annual rate of […]
Paul Krugman notes that it is standard practice to estimate an accelerationist Phillips curve in which the change in inflation is related to unemployment. He also notes that recent data seem to form the original Phillips curve, that is the scatter of inflation on unemployment forms a curve. He asked if someone might have rolling […]