This is the third of a series of posts on the non accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment (NAWRU) estimated by the European Commission. In the first, I argue that this estimate is very important because it is used to implement the Stability and Growth Pact. In the second, I argue that the NAWRU is […]

This is the first of five posts I promised to write in this post. NAWRU stands for the Non Accelerating Wage inflation Rate of unemployment. It is a concept used by the European Commission when deciding how much to allow Treasuries adhering to the Stability and Growth Pact to spend. The commission considers cyclical adjustments […]

European Commission fiscal dictates are based on outdated economic theory, strange econometrics and arbitrary ad hoc restrictions on parameter estimates. It is not easy to discuss the technique behind that which presents itself as technocracy with a straight face. The ‘cracy part is genuinely powerful, so this matters. This will be the first of a […]

An alterative title might be my usual comment reminding Krugman’s readers of the history of “hysterisis”. Krugman wrote a very clear even better than usual post summarizing how his views on macroeconomics have changed since 2008. It is best to click the link, but the one sentence summary is that he wasn’t surprised by the […]

I received this *.pdf and an invitation to read it from my colleague and sometimes co-author Alessandra Pelloni. I had a lot of thoughts which I post here as they can’t do any harm. Two comments before the jump and 5 after the jump. I think it will be hard to massage the data away […]

There have been four terrorist attacks in Paris tonight. At least 35 people were killed and about 100 taken hostage. In the horror, there is one promising development which might be useful to any angrybear readers in Paris #PorteOuverte Parisians have been advised to stay home until the situation is under control. It being Friday […]

“Always click the link” — Kevin Drum In his latest Op-ed Paul Krugman wrote ” Americans overwhelmingly believe that the wealthy pay less than their fair share of taxes, and even Republicans are closely divided on the issue.” I would have guessed that a majority of rank and file Republicans agree with all Republican presidential […]

I just notice that in the second quarter of 2015 US real gross private domestic investment surpassed US real government consumption expenditures & gross investment for the first time since the data have been collected (1947). The long era of US socialism as lead by Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and the Bushs has ended under raging […]

Russ Choma wrote an excellent article on Carly Fiorina’s habit of making precise claims which turn out to be false. I had one comment Excellent article, but you missed one. “Ronald Reagan got rid of the the 55 mph national speed limit, he deregulated trucking and the airlines, that’s the last time it happened.” is […]

This is a rare event. Both Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman argue that a recent argument by Kevin Warsh and Michael Spence makes no theoretical sense. I disagree. I am sure Warsh and Spence are wrong, but I can make a simple theoretical argument for their conclusion. The argument is that QE causes low non […]