As predicted, a deeply unpopular Trump stomped on the GOP message; early races I’ll be watching Tuesday night As I wrote a few weeks ago, whatever message Congressional GOPers might have wanted to put out (like, “our tax cuts helped spur the best economy in years!”) got stomped on by Donald Trump. As it turns […]
October jobs report: probably the best report of the entire expansion HEADLINES: +250,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% U6 underemployment rate declined -0.1% from 7.5% to 7.4% Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: […]
ISM new orders posts lowest reading in nearly 2 years The ISM reported the other day that The October PMI® registered 57.7 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the September reading of 59.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 57.4 percent, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from the September reading of 61.8 percent. On Tuesday […]
Some good news on workers’ wages There was some good news the other morning about workers wages. The quarterly employment cost index showed a q/q increase of +0.9% for wages (red in the graph below), and +0.8% for overall compensations (blue) (which includes things like medical benefits). Nominal YoY increases were +3.0% and 2.8%, respectively: […]
The Housing Affordability Crisis This morning both the Case-Shiller House Price Indexes for September, and Third Quarter Median Asking Rent were reported, as was the rental vacancy rate. Together they reveal that all types of shelter costs, whether housing or apartments, are at or near record levels. The Case Shiller 20 City index was reported […]
Setting a baseline for a manufacturing slowdown If I am right that by roughly midyear 2019 the economy will experience a substantial slowdown, then we ought to start seeing a deceleration in the leading indicators for manufacturing soon. Additionally, if rail transportation is accurately signaling that a slowdown is already hitting due to the impact […]
When the stock market headlines the political blogs . . . Here is a graph I saw on Digby’s blog this morning: There was also a highly-recommended, heavily-commented piece at Daily Kos. Here’s a pro tip: when you see a daily stock market move leading the political blogs, it’s a sign of a bottom, not a […]
A follow-up on the reasons for prime age labor force non-participation Here is something interesting I found in an article by staffers at the Kansas City Fed a couple of weeks ago. They broke down the 25-54 prime age labor force participation group for men into 10 year slices, by education, and by reason for […]
An update on yield curve dynamics So I submitted this wonderful piece to Seeking Alpha Tuesday morning, and figured I would just link to it today. But as in the best laid plans of mice and men, somehow it reverted to a draft without ever being reviewed by the site’s editors, which means it isn’t […]
New home sales bombed in September Needless to say, this morning’s report on new home sales was another big miss in the housing sector. Not only were sales a new 12 month low, they were the lowest in nearly 2 years, and are off over -150,000 from their peak 10 months ago: Typically new home […]