Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

A Conversation with George Soros

With thanks to Felix Salmon for arranging the invitation. There’s an episode of House where he has to get rid of one of the people for his new team.  By the end of the episode, the sharpest person in the group has said everything that we would have expected to hear from House—and is therefore […]

Current doldrums are just jobless, sales-less recovery

NBER just made official what we all knew they would say: the Great Recession ended in June of 2009. For those who are encouraged, note that they also do not indicate that there was a recession from March of 1933 to May of 1937, that the eighteen (18) months indicated is the longest since 1929-1933, […]

When You Don’t Spend Any, the Velocity of Money becomes Zero

Edmoney is tracking the allocation and spending of education-related stimulus grants. The map is here. Some states have gotten the funds into circulation better than others. Selected states below (GA was highlighted by them): California, 78% New Jersey, 63% Georgia, 62% Indiana, 60% Oklahoma, 50% Mississippi, 42% Massachusetts, 41% Michigan, 41% Kentucky, 39% Pennsylvania, 35% […]

Infrastructure and Human Capital Interlude

Busy week, so just a couple of things of note. Via Dr. Black, my old neighborhood gets a chance to build a better future: “It’s a great partnership among a number of researchers from academia, the private sector and national laboratories. It’s a great collaboration for a solid project that will help the environment,” said […]

The Gift that Keeps on Giving

During the discussions about the Fannie Mae project I still regret having turned down, one of the topics was which security would be better for a portfolio (assuming their risk-adjusted prices provided the same value): a four-year-old MBS or a seven-year-old MBS? I noted that the four-year-old MBS provided more potential upside but came gradually […]

What Do We Mean When We Say "Structural Unemployment"? Part 1

This needs to be screamed far and wide from the highest mountain to the deepest sea, at the top of one’s lungs: There is no reason to think that the bulk of current unemployment is any sense “structural”: if aggregate demand were higher it would melt away just as unemployment in 1982 melted away. The […]

Goldman Does Something Good

The lower the fee, the more money raised by the IPO that actually goes to pay back the taxpayer. Doesn’t change that Michael Moore’s analysis of GM is likely much more true than not (especially the likely reasons for the abrupt sidelining of Ed Whitacre), but every little bit helps. In related news, it’s Economists […]

In Which I Worry about the swimming pools of Casey Mulligan and Greg Mankiw

Tim Duy takes a gracious lead pipe to silly analysis: It really makes one understand why the public often dismisses academics as out of touch in their ivory towers. One has to imagine that neither Mulligan nor Mankiw ever held a real summer job. Nor, apparently, have they looked at any other nonseasonally adjusted data. […]

Interlude / Self-Indulgent Advt

I want one of these positions: The Office of Complex Financial Institutions (which the agency has assigned the acronym CFI) “will perform continuous review and oversight of bank holding companies with more than $100 billion in assets as well as non-bank financial companies designated as systemically important by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council,” the […]

The Texas Miracle, Yet Again

We keep hearing about the Texas Miracle.  It’s been mythic since “openly gay” Governor Rick Perry declared that Texas was in great shape, in no need of stimulus monies at all—after receiving enough to turn his state’s fourteen-figure budget deficit into a surplus. (UPDATE: Links added. And that final link was rather prophetic.) So when […]