by Joseph Joyce The Rise and Fall of FDI After the global financial crisis, international capital flows contracted, especially bank lending in Europe. Foreign direct investment (FDI) by multinational firms, however, provided a steady source of external finance, particularly for emerging market economies. The McKinsey Global Institute has calculated that the global stock of FDI increased from […]
Kenneth Thomas (an AB contributor) was quoted April 7 in the Journal a second time on the general question of how to solve the problem of subsidy bidding wars. Unfortunately it is behind a paywall…but worth pointing to… WSJ.COM Opinion | Pass a Law to Combat Rent-Seeking Congress could invoke the Commerce Clause to limit […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 27 – 31 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was a touch of weakening across several timeframes. The economy is just weak enough that continuing trade and tariff tantrums could take a slowdown and do enough damage to make it a […]
by New Deal democrat Resolving the contradiction between the yield curve and housing If you listen to the yield curve, it is screaming “recession!” If you listen to new home sales, they are saying “no worries!” One of them is wrong. For the last couple of weeks, I have been going back over history in […]
Initial claims, temporary staffing point to weaker May jobs report – by New Deal democrat As I’ve noted a few times recently, I’m paying additional attention to the weekly jobless claims numbers, partly because I suspected that the late Easter this year resulted in some residual seasonality (which I think has been demonstrated), and partly […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big contradiction between what the yield curve is forecasting, and what most of the rest of the long leading indicators are forecasting, continues. Meanwhile Trump’s tariff “policies” are creating chaos in other […]