by New Deal democrat
If you listen to the yield curve, it is screaming “recession!” If you listen to new home sales, they are saying “no worries!” One of them is wrong.
For the last couple of weeks, I have been going back over history in an effort to resolve the contradictory signals. One important portion of that work has been to focus on the non-financial leading indicators, and in particular, balancing the consumer stress indirectly measured by housing permits vs. the producer stress measured by corporate profits.
The outcome of factoring corporate profits into the mix is telling. This work is up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading helps reward me with a little $$$ for my efforts.