Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and hoping for a different result. Apparently no one has mentioned this to Republican congressional “leadership”.
The Republicans have no good options as they cast around for a solution to their speakership problem. McCarthy can try to make concessions to secure the support of the Freedom Caucus. These concessions will empower the obstructionists in the FC and will make the House ungovernable. The result will be interminable gridlock and recriminations at best and a catastrophic debt default at worse. We’ve been down this road before. If Boehner couldn’t manage the FC there’s no reason to think McCarthy can. Another option for Republicans is to look for an alternative to McCarthy from within the party. It’s not obvious what problem this solves. The smart move for the non-FC Republicans might be to seize the high ground of compromise and work with Democrats to find an acceptable national unity Speaker, but it’s difficult to see this happening.
In the meantime, both President Biden and Senator Schumer are talking up bipartisanship and compromise. This is clearly the right move. If it succeeds, they will get most of the credit, because Biden is President and because moderation and compromise are part of Biden’s brand. If bipartisanship fails and the next two years are an unending legislative shit-show, the Democrats will need to persuade voters that this is not their fault, and a combination of bipartisan talk and Freedom Caucus insanity make this seem like a realistic outcome.
For what it’s worth, I think that Biden should outline relatively bipartisan, compromise proposals. His main priority should be a plan to shore up the finances of Social Security, to ensure that there are no benefit cuts. He should offer to accept a plan that does not involve benefit increases and frame this as a concession, because he and his party believe that benefits should be increased, and he should challenge Republicans to give up their demand for cuts. This positioning will let him lambaste Republicans when they try to use the debt ceiling as leverage for benefit cuts. Biden should emphasize that solving the problem is urgent, so that he can use the issue as a cudgel in the 2024.
I think Biden should also urge compromise on other high profile issues, including immigration reform and drug pricing, and he should ask for a bipartisan approach to regional economic development. Immigration reform is a very difficult issue, and I understand why Democrats are loathe to compromise. But the current system is tremendously unfair to immigrants, bad for the country as a whole (we need immigration), and a political albatross for Democrats, especially with Biden nominally responsible for preventing illegal immigration, an impossible charge. We need to find a way to make some progress, or at the very least show an interest in finding solutions.
“The smart move for the non-FC Republicans – – – – – work with Democrats to find an acceptable national unity Speaker ….”
Suspect Jeffries, Aguilar, Pelosi et al are a part of the ‘anyone but Kevin’ crowd, would like to banish the FC motleys to obscurity; are thinking along the same lines as you.
The smart move for the non-FC Republicans might be to seize the high ground of compromise and work with Democrats to find an acceptable national unity Speaker, but it’s impossible to see this happening.
FIFY
As for the rest, the only channeled aspirations of the House GOP are endless hearings about Hunter Biden’s laptop and impeachments of Joe Biden and his cabinet. The House GOP is not interested in policy or governing. This is what they are saying, and I think you can take them at their word on this.
I thought that was the definition of faith.
I’ve been advocating for a long time folks just let them speak. Operation Just Let Them Speak. Just let them have their little apocalypse, just show us who they really are. When it’s over we can get on with fixing what need be fixed. Just as soon as enough people are outraged.
Maybe I have too much faith in those around me …
Perhaps if Trump is selected to be Speaker?
Of course, it is entirely possible that insanity is rampant in the GOP.
Of course, it is certain that insanity is rampant in the GOP.
FIFY
I did hear later that Rep Matt Gaetz had nominated Trump today.
US House speaker fight sees twist, members erupt into laughter as Donald Trump gets ONE vote
Alas (and alack!) …
A Ragged GOP Stumbles Through the Wilderness
NY Times – Jan 5
As the chaos and confusion on the House floor stretched into a third day, Republicans made it abundantly clear who was leading their party: absolutely no one.
From the halls of Congress to the Ohio Statehouse to the back-room dealings of the Republican National Committee, the party is confronting an identity crisis unseen in decades. With no unified legislative agenda, clear leadership or shared vision for the country, Republicans find themselves mired in intraparty warfare, defined by a fringe element that seems more eager to tear down the House than to rebuild the foundation of a political party that has faced disappointment in the past three national elections.
Even as Donald J. Trump rarely leaves his Florida home in what so far appears to be little more than a Potemkin presidential campaign, Republicans have failed to quell the anti-establishment fervor that accompanied his rise to power. Instead, those tumultuous political forces now threaten to devour the entire party. …
As the number of failed votes for Mr. McCarthy crept into double digits, the House appeared in a state of limbo, with Republicans continuing to negotiate among themselves over how to find a way out of the stalemate.
“Nobody is in charge,” John Fredericks, a syndicated right-wing radio host and former chairman of Mr. Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns in Virginia, said in an interview. “Embrace the chaos. Our movement is embracing the chaos.” …
Mr. Fredericks, who is typically one of the most aggressive pro-Trump voices in the conservative news media, said that even the former president’s renewed endorsement of Mr. McCarthy on Wednesday would do little to shore up the would-be speaker’s support. …
(Happy US Capitol Insurrection Day!)
Half of the Recalcitrants are from (3) states: Arizona, Texas, and Florida. All are from safe districts; some of these, gerrymandered safe. All opposed certifying the election. None believe in democracy. It’s my way or the hiway with them.
They are essentially anarchists.
They have no business being guv’mint, except to bring it down.
Matt Gaetz says he will resign if GOP Reps do a deal with House Dems.
Will he take Marjorie Taylor Green with him?
Does that include figuring out how to get Hakeem Jeffries elected Speaker?
GREENE, BOEBERT, GAETZ: THE WORST PEOPLE YOU KNOW ARE HAVING A FIGHT
Gaetz, MJT, Boebert: The trio is at odds over giving Kevin McCarthy the House Speaker role.
Vanity Fair – Jan 3
There are a lot of awful people in the United States Congress, but it wouldn’t be hard to make the case that representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, and Matt Gaetz are among the very worst of the worst. That awfulness usually bonds them, but at present, the worst people in Washington are in a fight.
Specifically, Greene is fighting with Boebert and Gaetz over the fact that they, along with more than a dozen other members of the House Freedom Caucus, refuse to support Representative Kevin McCarthy’s bid to become Speaker of the House. …
13th ballot
Was the 13th ballot a trial run for the final one tonight, #14?
This time McCarthy got 214 votes, Jeffries got 212 (again), Other (Jim Jordan) got 6.
Looks like 2 must have voted present.
What has to happen, it would seem, is that the 6 ‘final holdouts’ have to switch their votes to present.
Signs of a possible deal?
Washington Post via MSN
For the third day in a row, Republicans were unable to break an ongoing, and now historic, logjam to elect a speaker, even as warnings mounted over the growing consequences of not having a functioning lower chamber of Congress.
But in a sign of progress, some Republicans are approaching a deal that could help Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) get closer to clinching the necessary 218 votes to take the gavel.
Holdouts appeared to be swayed by the latest offer McCarthy had made to them roughly 24 hours earlier. After hours of negotiations on the floor that led to four repeated failed votes for McCarthy, the impasse seemed to soften — at least for the moment.
“I felt good. I felt, I felt very positive yesterday,” McCarthy said as he left the Capitol late Thursday night. “I feel more positive today. I think we had really good discussions. I think it really comes to a really good point.”
According to three sources familiar with the deal, several holdouts are on the verge of agreeing to it and will vote in favor for McCarthy, though when that might happen remained unclear. The expectation is that though McCarthy will not get all the votes necessary to become speaker, it will show considerable momentum for him.
After “phase one” is completed, “phase two” will begin, as both conservative Republicans and moderates aggressively apply pressure to the holdouts that remain until they can find a pathway for only four to vote against McCarthy — the threshold he needs to get to 218. …
(What are the odds?)
To reach a point where 212 votes are sufficient for a (Dem) victory, 5 GOP members have to vote present, and at least 6 of them would have to vote for someone other than McCarthy. However, if 7 more vote for McCarthy, he wins.
Err: with 4 more votes for McCarthy, 5 voting present and 4 voting for Other, McCarthy wins. Again, What are the odds?
When I revisited this calculation later today, I got different numbers.
For a House with 434 seated members, a majority is 218 votes. With 12 voting present, it’s 212 votes. That’s what it would take for Jeffries to win.
If, on the same ballot, at least 213 GOP Reps vote for McCarthy, he wins the Speakership. That’s about a dozen more than have been voting for him. Less than 213, Jeffries wins.
What Dems would want, clearly, is for 12 GOP Reps to vote present, but the rest of the holdouts to continue to vote for Other. What are the odds?
OK, actually Less than 212 votes for McCarthy, Jeffries wins.