Trying To Make Sense Of The Confusion
Trying To Make Sense Of The Confusion
On the one hand Russian media is telling Russians that Russian troops will leave Belarus when exercises there end on Feb., 20, coinciding with the end of the Winter Olympics, and also sends out videos of troops supposedly being pulled back. OTOH, US officials declared based on reported satellite evidence that 7,000 more troops have gone to “the Ukrainian border” with a chance of Russia invading Ukraine very high, as US personnel are removed, and the US embassy is moved from Kyiv to L’viv in far western Ukraine. I also note that previously Russian media was blasting away about US troops in Ukraine and threats to Belarus and Russia. US advisers were removed last weekend, and that coincided with the pivot to peaceful sounding media in Russia, although much of this is also tied to ongoing focus on the Winter Olympics, where the Russians have generally been doing very well. Can any sense be made of these apparent contradictions? Maybe
The video of Russian troops being withdrawn were shown crossing the bridge Putin has had built connecting Crimea with Russia proper, so not quite on the Ukrainian border and not in Belarus, but also emphasixing Russian intention to hang on to Crimea, with the newly built bridge connecting it to Russia peoper highlighted.
I do think that given how loudly it has been broadcast to the Russian people, Russian troops will largely be withdrawn from Belarus when the exercises end on Feb. 20. They posed the greatest threat to Kyiv itself, if there were to be an invasion, with Kyiv not too far from the Balarusan border. But while pulling back troops from Belarus may make Kyiv a bit more secure, it in fact does not remove the threat of a possible invasion . There are about 159,000 Russian troops somewhere near the Ukrainian border supposedly, with where the new 7000 went not clear. But there are only about 35,000 Russian troops in Belarus for the exercises. So they could be withdrawn completely and there would still be well over 100,000 Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, with the Russia-Ukraine border much longer than the Belarus-Ukraine one, even if the latter is nearer Kyiv.
David Ignatius has written that “it is unclear what Putin’s endgame is,” and I fully agree. I do not know. He has made many demands, while always stating he was not going to invade. Some of those demands always looked out of the question, such as pulling troops and weapons out of former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact members now in NATO. But his ongoing demand about keeping Ukraine out of NATO remains on the table, and there remains the ongoing matter of the status of the separatist republics in Donbas. I do not know what he will accept to not engage in some sort of military action later with the troops still near Ukraine, even after he pulls out of Belarus, if he does.
Zelensky ran on having a referendum on joining NATO. But without resolution of the Donbas republics issue, he cannot have that in a serious way. And he has recently said that “joining NATO may be just a dream.” But that may not satisfy Putin.
As for the republics themselves, the lower Duma has passed a bill recognizing them as independent states, and has urged Putin to do it, as he has in the past for Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transniestria, although almost nobody else recognized any of those. He has held back so far on recognizing Lunansk and Donetsk. But perhaps doing that and bolstering them more, with perhaps helping them increase their territories, along with other agreements on types and placements of various arms in eastern Europe. But, again, I do not know what Putin really wants, or maybe we know what he wants, a resurrection of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. But that is not going to happen. So, we are back to how much of what he wants will he be willing to take if he can get it to really pull back, not just from the exercises in Belarus. To that, I do not know the answer.
Barkley Rosser
US says Russia’s troop buildup could be as high as 190,000 in and near Ukraine
The United States said on Friday that Russia had likely amassed as many as 190,000 troops near the borders of Ukraine and inside the separatist regions in the country’s east, significantly raising its estimate of Moscow’s troop buildup as the Biden administration tries to persuade the world of the imminent threat of an invasion.
The assessment was delivered in a statement by the U.S. mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, calling it “the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.”
“We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on Jan. 30″ …
Trying to discern whether Putin is a crafty strategist or reckless leader
NY Times – Feb 18
Reuters: Warning siren sounds in rebel-held capital in east Ukraine
A loud warning siren sounded in the centre of the east Ukrainian city of Donetsk on Friday after a Russian-backed separatist leader in the breakaway region announced an evacuation of residents, a Reuters witness said.
Separately, the head of the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic, east Ukraine’s second separatist-held region, also announced an evacuation of residents.
People will start being bussed out from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic on Friday at 8 p.m. local time (1700 GMT), Interfax news agency cited a source as saying. …
Russian-backed separatists announce civilian evacuation from eastern Ukraine as escalation stokes invasion fears
Rebels announce evacuation from east Ukraine
well, i don’t know what his, or our, intentions are either. but from what i have heard his “demands” sound reasonable. a demilitarization of his western border.
we have nough resources to detect any “intermeddling” with Ukraine, or indeed other countries, and we could respond by un-demilitarizing those countries. Putin would not want to provoke that. of course we would have to refrain from intermeddling ourselves, and we might not be able to restrain ourselves, to which Putin could respond by shutting off gas to Europe.
seems to me that sort of standoff would be a step less dangerous than the one apparently going on now. does remind me of the cuban missle crisis when we convinced Kruschev not to put muclear capable missiles in Cuba in return for our removing some of our nuclear missiles from his border. sounded fair to me. but was not how Kennedy’s tough posturing was portrayed in any media i knew of at the time.
on the other hand, i have trouble accounting for the stock market these days, i suspect profit taking after the Trump Tulip Mania. but it just could be that people are really scared of what the clowns in Washington are doing.
i don’t follow this story closely, Coberly, but my understanding is that Russia’s involvement with Ukraine is to protect two separatist states in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine that have large ethnically Russian populations….we hear nothing about that side of the story from our state department, nor their parroting mouthpieces in the media…
deleted first part of comment. it said:
if the russian speaking people want to live in russia and not in ukraine, why not let them. but then, that’s what hitler said about czechoslovakia. [i was told as a child that those german speaking czechs had fled germany to avoid the draft.]
i suspect national interest ..as in economic viability…would not always correspond to drawing boundries along ethnic lines. but it might avoid some unpleasantness.
maybe the czechs learned that lesson: when the slovaks wanted to go their own way, they said, “go in peace.” i don’t know how that is working out.
i wonder if we could work out a similar deal with Texas and Florida.
some headlines from eastern Ukraine:
Shelling intensifies in eastern Ukraine amid concern Russia’s creating a pretext for an invasion – CBS News — Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian separatists they’re fighting in the country’s east reported a second day of increased shelling on Friday, as the leaders of the rebels’ self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics accused the Ukrainian government of planning an imminent attack. The rebel administrations in the two breakaway regions announced plans to evacuate thousands of civilians into neighboring Russia. Western leaders say an escalation in the fighting in Ukraine’s Donbas region — which has simmered for almost eight years — could be part of Russian efforts to create a “false-flag” pretext to invade.
Ukraine separatists announce plan to evacuate civilians: Live | Ukraine-Russia crisis News | Al Jazeera – Moscow-backed separatist leaders in conflict-hit eastern Ukraine have announced they will evacuate civilians to Russia as fears of a major escalation in fighting grow. Friday’s announcement by the heads of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) came after the rebels and Ukraine’s government traded fresh accusations of shelling and other ceasefire violations in the Donbas region.
Sirens wail in southeast Ukraine as civilians told to evacuate pro-Russian Donbas region – Leaders of the pro-Russian “people’s republics” in the Donbas region of southeastern Ukraine ordered an evacuation of the civilians living in the areas under control on Friday. The separatist leaders said a Ukrainian army assault was imminent, while Western leaders continued to warn that it was Russia that was preparing for war against its neighbour. Denis Pushilin, head of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic, declared in a video address that women, children, and the elderly would be evacuated to the nearby Rostov region of Russia.
Ukrainian rebels evacuate civilians to Russia amid crisis (AP) — Spiking tensions in eastern Ukraine on Friday aggravated Western fears of a Russian invasion and a new war in Europe, with a humanitarian convoy hit by shelling and pro-Russian rebels evacuating civilians from the conflict zone. A car bombing hit the eastern city of Donetsk, but no casualties were reported.The Kremlin declared massive nuclear drills to flex its military muscle, and President Vladimir Putin pledged to protect Russia’s national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats.
Coberly,
My wife worries about this a lot, but I reassure her that our response will be limited. I believe that goes for Putin as well. It appears that Putin wants to buy some cheap real estate while it is available.
Ron
not that i know anything, but i agree any response, or provocation, will be limited. more recent news suggests the Eastern Ukraine wants to break away from western Ukraine. that could look enough like a civil war that neither US or Russia would have an excuse to go crazy.
but given the Rs in this country, crazy can not be ruled out anywhere.
secession might not be a bad solution. eastern could be part of Russia economic union. western could be part of Euro. neither would need to be armed to the point of being a threat to the other or points west or points east.
[duplicate comment detected]
well, i don’t know what his, or our, intentions are either. but from what i have heard his “demands” sound reasonable. a demilitarization of his western border.
we have nough resources to detect any “intermeddling” with Ukraine, or indeed other countries, and we could respond by un-demilitarizing those countries. Putin would not want to provoke that. of course we would have to refrain from intermeddling ourselves, and we might not be able to restrain ourselves, to which Putin could respond by shutting off gas to Europe.
seems to me that sort of standoff would be a step less dangerous than the one apparently going on now. does remind me of the cuban missle crisis when we convinced Kruschev not to put muclear capable missiles in Cuba in return for our removing some of our nuclear missiles from his border. sounded fair to me. but was not how Kennedy’s tough posturing was portrayed in any media i knew of at the time.
on the other hand, i have trouble accounting for the stock market these days, i suspect profit taking after the Trump Tulip Mania. but it just could be that people are really scared of what the clowns in Washington are doing.
Russia would prefer to regain the superpower status that the USSR held.
They would prefer that the US become less of a superpower with respect to
its influence in Europe and elsewhere. NATO & the European Union seems
to prefer the American POV on this. After all Russia also desires
to dominate Europe.
Time will tell how this turns out. And soon, most likely.
Russia-backed rebels in Ukraine call for taking up arms, and Putin oversees military drills
NY Times – Feb 19
Probably about time for some of those people in the Donbas republics who have taken Russian citizenship to move there. Economic conditions in those republics are terrible. They are not remotely poster boys for any other part of Ukraine to follow their examples, even though in general Ukraine has not performed as well economically as Russia since 1991. Indeed, the idea that “eastern Ukraine” wants to separate off is now a dead idea. Maybe back before Putin invaded and annexes, but now even in Kharkiv, about as Russian and pro-Russian as one can get outside the Donbas republics, there is now little support for Putin invading or annexing or even separating from western Ukraine. Putin has united Ukraine with his actions.
The Chinese position is that they support Putin’s demand that Ukraine not join NATO, but they oppose any invasion by Putin of Ukraine.
Since Xi & Putin are firm allies, it’s unlikely that China will really go against Russia’s position in this, going forward.
“Alliance of Autocracies”
If the women & children of eastern Ukraine are evacuated to Russia, that will only facilitate bloody fighting in the coming weeks between Russians & Ukrainians. The point here is only that Russia wants Ukraine to rejoin ‘the fold’, by force if necessary.
well, where are the game-theorists when you need them?
since i heard that Ukraine has no intention of joining NATO (so far from the sea, you see) then it’s time for Putin to declare victory and go home (short distance away). and Biden can claim he faced down Putin. put it all in writing and it’s done. for now.
In other words, since Russia has no intention of joining NATO, they insist that Ukraine must not either.
To paraphrase (Groucho) Marx, they have ‘no intention of joining a club that would have them as a member’, but they perhaps are hurt that no one has invited them.
Some 20th century background for the present Ukraine-Russia situation.
(Wikipedia)
In February 1954 the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) transferred Crimea as a gift to Ukraine from the Russians; even if only 22 percent of the Crimean population were ethnic Ukrainian. 1954 also witnessed the massive state-organised celebration of the 300th anniversary of the Union Russia and Ukraine also known as the Pereyaslav Council; the treaty which brought Ukraine under Russian rule three centuries before. The event was celebrated to prove the old and brotherly love between Ukrainians and Russians, and proof of the Soviet Union as a “family of nations”; it was also another way of legitimising Marxism–Leninism. …
The “Thaw” – the policy of deliberate liberalisation – was characterised by four points: amnesty for all those convicted of state crime during the war or the immediate post-war years; amnesties for one-third of those convicted of state crime during Stalin’s rule; the establishment of the first Ukrainian mission to the United Nations in 1958; and the steady increase of Ukrainians in the rank of the CPU and government of the Ukrainian SSR. Not only were the majority of CPU Central Committee and Politburo members ethnic Ukrainians, three-quarters of the highest ranking party and state officials were ethnic Ukrainians too. The policy of partial Ukrainisation also led to a cultural thaw within Ukraine.
In October 1964, Khrushchev (born near Ukraine) was deposed by a joint Central Committee and Politburo plenum and succeeded by another collective leadership, this time led by Leonid Brezhnev, born in Ukraine, as First Secretary and Alexei Kosygin as Chairman of the Council of Ministers. Brezhnev’s rule would be marked by social and economic stagnation, a period often referred to as the Era of Stagnation. The new regime introduced the policy of rastsvet, sblizhenie and sliianie (“flowering”, “drawing together” and “merging”/”fusion”), which was the policy of uniting the different Soviet nationalities into one Soviet nationality by merging the best elements of each nationality into the new one. This policy turned out to be, in fact, the reintroduction of the russification policy. The reintroduction of this policy can be explained by Khrushchev’s promise of communism in 20 years; the unification of Soviet nationalities would take place, according to Vladimir Lenin, when the Soviet Union reached the final stage of communism, also the final stage of human development. …
Eight years after protesters were gunned down in Kyiv, Ukraine faces even greater peril
NY Times – Feb 20
An estimated 30,000 Russian troops will stay longer in Belarus, bordering Ukraine
NY Times – Feb 20
Shelling and evacuations in Ukraine’s east could give Putin a pretext to invade
NY Times – Feb 20
I note that the 1654 unification did not put what is now western Ukraine under Russian rule, and it remained under rule of others until 1945. Of course, that is the base for Ukrainian nationalism.
I also note that Ukraine is free to join the CSTO, the security organization Russia has founded, known as “Warsaw Pact Lite.” It has six members: Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Funny how Ukraine somehow seems uninterested, although maybe if Putin can get a flunky in charge in Kyiv, it will join.
Pereiaslav Agreement (1654)
(Wikipedia)
For Russia, the deal eventually led to the full incorporation of the Hetmanate into the Russian state, providing a justification for the title of Russian tsars and emperors, the Autocrat of all the Russias. Russia, being at that time the only part of former Kievan Rus’ which was not dominated by a foreign power, considered itself the successor of Kievan Rus’ and the re-unifier of all Rus’ lands. Subsequently, in the 20th century, in official Soviet propaganda and history, the Council of Pereyaslav was officially viewed and referred to as an act of “re-unification of Ukraine with Russia“. …
The decision adopted in Pereyaslav is seen by Ukrainian nationalists as a sad occasion and lost chance for Ukrainian independence. Since then, Ukraine experienced an independent statehood solely during the Russian Civil War, and then after the dissolution of the USSR. The People’s Friendship Arch in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, colloquially referred to as the “Yoke of the Peoples”, further demonstrates the controversial nature of the treaty. Pro-Russian Ukrainian parties, on the other hand, celebrate the date of this event and renew calls for re-unification of the three East Slavic nations: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
In 2004, after the celebration of the 350th anniversary of the event, the administration of President Leonid Kuchma of Ukraine established January 18 as the official date to commemorate the event, a move which created controversy. In 1954, the anniversary celebrations included the transfer of Crimea from the Russian Soviet Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic of the Soviet Union; in 2014 Crimea was annexed by Russia. …
If West Virginia could secede from Virginia in 1863, after Virginia seceded from the USA in 1861, then it should be ok for Ukraine to go its own way, if it’s ok with the neighbors.
(Wikipedia)
West Virginia … is the only state to form by seceding from a Confederate state. It was originally part of the British Virginia Colony (1607–1776) and the western part of the state of Virginia (1776–1863), became sharply divided over the issue of secession from the Union and in the separation from Virginia, formalized by West Virginia’s admittance to the Union as a new state in 1863. …
Intelligence that the Kremlin ordered an invasion
NY Times – Feb 20
Biden agrees ‘in principle’ to meeting with Putin, as long as Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine
AP & NY Times via Boston Globe – Feb 20
President Biden agreed ‘in principle’ to meet with Putin to discuss the Ukraine crisis.
NY Ties – Feb 20
Putin gathers his Security Council, with a warning of rising tensions
NY Times – Feb 21
And this should come as no surprise…
Russia has a list of Ukrainians to kill or detain after an invasion
(Or so the U.S. says.)
Blitzkrieg or Minor Incursion? Putin’s Choice
NY Times – Feb 21
Ukraine seeks an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council
US and others blast Russia at emergency UN Security Council meeting
NY Times via Boston Globe – Feb 22
Fred,
The Wiki entry is off, although consistent with Putin’s fantasies. Russia was ruled by outsiders, the Mongols. It was only with Ivan the Terrible they fully got independent, by which time the Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian languages had diverged. It is also the case that after 1654, western Ukraine was not ruled by Russia and would not be until incorportated into the USSR in 1945 as part of the Ukrainian SSR, so never under Russia per se.
Fred,
The Wiki entry is off, although consistent with Putin’s fantasies. Russia was ruled by outsiders, the Mongols. It was only with Ivan the Terrible they fully got independent, by which time the Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian languages had diverged. It is also the case that after 1654, western Ukraine was not ruled by Russia and would not be until incorportated into the USSR in 1945 as part of the Ukrainian SSR, so never under Russia per se.
It’s pretty clear that the Mongols (‘The Golden Horde’) had a profound effect on the region, and different parts were affected differently. The effect was, overall, that the Rus ethnicity was driven apart, an effect which persists into modern times.
What’s at Stake for the Global Economy as Conflict Looms in Ukraine
NY Times – Feb 21
Note that Russia, population of 144M as of 2020, has roughly 3x the population of Ukraine (44M), and so Russia will continue to dominate the neighborhood. (17% of Ukrainians are ethnic Russians.)
Belarus adds 9.4M, of whom 80% are ethnic Russians. (Data from Wikipedia.)
US said it will impose sanctions on the breakaway regions, but not for now on Russia
NY Times – Feb 21
Ukrainian Statehood a Fiction? History Suggests Otherwise.
NY Times – Feb 21
White House now calling Russian moves on Ukraine an invasion, sets stage for strong sanctions
Boston Globe – Feb 22