Total US cases: 5,060,880
Source: COVID Tracking Project
Let’s take a look at some good news as well as continued bad news today.
First, the bad news. Here are the top 10 States for coronavirus infections:
Total US cases: 5,060,880
Source: COVID Tracking Project
Let’s take a look at some good news as well as continued bad news today.
First, the bad news. Here are the top 10 States for coronavirus infections:
And here are the top 10 States for deaths:
Note that with the exception of Nevada and Idaho, all of the top 10 States in both categories are from the Confederacy. About the best that can be said is that for most of them, cases and deaths may be leveling off. I can’t help but think that the racial demographics of who is getting seriously ill and dying plays a role in why these States are so recalcitrant.
But there is some good news as well.
First, Arizona, which a month ago was turning into the poster child for renewed out of control exponential spread, has seen a drop of about 70% in new cases, and about 33% in deaths:
Second, Texas, whole governor also issued a mask mandate several weeks ago, also has seen a 1/3 decline in new cases, and a leveling off in deaths:
It’s too soon to declare this a success story, but signs are encouraging.
In short, even in the most culturally recalcitrant States, surging deaths eventually cause action to be taken. Will they keep up the progress, or once again rush to lift all restrictions and undo this preliminary success? We’ll have to wait and see.
Next, let’s turn to the Northeast, the biggest success story in the US. In the below graphs, I’ll compare all of the States with next-door neighbor Canada.
Within that region, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey still have not brought their new case count down close to Canada, and in fact cases are increasing again:
Deaths have leveled off at multiple the rate of Canada’s:
But northern New England, Connecticut, and New York are true success stories, with new infection rates either equivalent to, or 2 to 3.5 times that of Canada:
Deaths are also equivalent to, or up to 3 times that of Canada’s:
Governors of these 5 States ought to be lobbying Canada and the EU to allow travel restrictions to those countries for their residents.
The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000
(graphics at the link)
NY Times – August 13
Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.
As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by other causes linked to the pandemic.
When the coronavirus first took hold in the United States in March, the bulk of deaths above normal levels, or “excess deaths,” were in the Northeast, as New York and New Jersey saw huge surges.
The Northeast still makes up nearly half of all excess deaths in the country, though numbers in the region have drastically declined since the peak in April.
But as the number of hot spots expanded, so has the number of excess deaths across other parts of the country. Many of the recent coronavirus cases and deaths in the South and the West may have been driven largely by reopenings and relaxed social distancing restrictions. …
Is it specific actions that have infections decreasing markedly from peaks or something else? Sweden also has come well off their peaks and did nothing at all. Maybe if a population experiences some high amount of infection it uses up a big portion of the susceptible individuals. Perhaps the discussions of some degree of immunity from prior exposure to other coronaviruses can help explain this. Have seen this more than once where some characteristic of the population limits the “problem” so much that by the time you have good confidence in what has happened it is nearly too late to do much. 1500 engines and quickly have 6 failures of part A. You work day and night and determine that the parts all were in the same heat treat oven at new vendor C. But of the 1500 engines, only 8 had this. So the problem was horrendous for the significant subpopulation, but nearly finished for the general population. Is that New York now maybe, just still not sure of what specifically made the subpopulation so vulnerable?
Eric :
You first.
Michigan started out at 1 of ~10 dying from contracting Covid and has made it to 1 of ~14. I suspect the stupider loons did not practice distancing and went without a mask into crowds.
You probably do not know the concentration of the heat in any particular part of that oven or perhaps makeup of the metal varied. Your findings point to a problem which should be explored further. If Ford, GM, etc, are the customer; the whole batch of engines would have been pulled.
Sweden avoided a coronavirus lockdown; now its critics urge more caution to avoid a second wave
Critics of Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy have called on the country’s health officials to put measures in place to prepare for, and prevent, a potential second wave of the virus in the fall.
Writing in Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter on Tuesday, Goran K. Hansson, the general-secretary of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Economist Lars Calmfors called for a change in the country’s strategy of no lockdown and few restrictions.
“It is now time to review the corona strategy,” Hansson and Calmfors wrote. “The beginning of autumn may be crucial for the corona pandemic’s continued development in the country. A real retake is needed for the continued infection control strategy so that the spread of infection is kept down while waiting for both better treatment methods and vaccines,” they said.
“Covid-19 has meant a national disaster for Sweden. Slow and insufficient action has probably contributed to this. And medics feel that the Swedish Public Health Agency does not reconsider (its strategy) when new information is available.”
Sweden went its own way as the coronavirus pandemic hit Europe in spring, deciding against a lockdown in favor of largely voluntary measures and social distancing. Most areas of public life — from bars and restaurants, to schools for the under-16s — remained open. …
It went through NY naked, with no one paying attention for 3 months. There is your problem.
August 13, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 5,395,447)
Deaths ( 169,848)
Deaths per million ( 513)
Sweden’s death rate per capita is still higher than the U.S. although only barely and going forward we will not be having any statewide lockdowns as opposed to specific industries–like cruise ships, college football specific meatpacking plants etc. The interesting thing is that Sweden’s economy suffered just as much as its Scandinavian neighbors who did lock down and had much lower death rates per capita. Not sure this is still true because the data on economic performance was from 6 weeks ago. I have long maintained and continue to maintain that the ordered lockdowns had relatively little effect on the economy because people were not going to get on airplanes or dine indoors or buy durable goods while a pandemic was raging. The exception was that people–particularly young single people-would still frequent taverns and other venues to socialize.I do not subscribe to the notion that we have consumed all the “dry kindling” and that the coronavirus will magically disappear as the moron in chief continues to claim. In the first place people of all ages die from it and suffer long term ill effects after catching it. Indeed I think the verdict is still out on whether asymptomatic people will eventually die or suffer morbidities which will be linked to this virus. The idea that more robust immune systems fight off the virus like they do the common cold is not a fact and of course the common cold is still with us. The only thing which will eliminate the virus is herd immunity either because everyone has caught it and developed immunity to getting it again–something which may not occur–or everyone is vaccinated with a long lasting vaccine–something which also may not occur. Even then there is nowhere in the world where you can let your guard down as evidenced by New Zealand with the coronavirus or in this country with measles. The fact is that the novel coronavirus causing Covid-19 is now endemic throughout the world and while the rush for a vaccine makes sense in the short run as a long range strategy better therapies may be more important. Ultimately, normal will be something none of us has experienced before.